Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2008 Dec 09 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html



Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 - 07 December 2008

Solar activity was very low through the period. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 01 - 05 December and at high levels on 06 - 07 December.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels on 01 - 03 December. From 04 - 07 December, activity increased to unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor to major storm periods observed at high latitudes. This period of activity was due to a recurrent coronal hole that rotated into a geoeffective position. By midday on 07 December, activity decayed to mostly quiet levels and remained so through the balance of the summary period. The period began with ACE solar wind velocities at about 290 km/s. These velocities persisted through early on 03 December when wind speed gradually increased to about 325 km/s by midday on the 03rd. Velocities continued to increase through the period and reached a maximum of 570 km/s at
07/0748 UTC. During this timeframe, the Bz component of the IMF varied from a high of +8 nT (05/1746 UTC) to a low of -8 nT (05/2128 UTC) with a Bt max of 11 nT (05/2019 UTC), all associated with the coronal hole high speed stream. The summary period ended with solar
wind velocity near 500 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
10 December 2008 - 05 January 2009

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels during 10 - 12 December and 02 - 05 January. Normal levels are expected during 13 December - 01 January.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 10 - 12 December. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 13 December due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 14 - 21 December. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on 22 - 24 December due to another recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 25 - 30
December. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels on 31 December - 02 January due to another recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 03 - 05 January.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Dec 09 2152 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Dec 09
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Dec 10 70 5 2
2008 Dec 11 70 5 2
2008 Dec 12 70 5 2
2008 Dec 13 70 8 3
2008 Dec 14 70 5 2
2008 Dec 15 70 5 2
2008 Dec 16 70 5 2
2008 Dec 17 70 5 2
2008 Dec 18 70 5 2
2008 Dec 19 70 5 2
2008 Dec 20 70 5 2
2008 Dec 21 70 5 2
2008 Dec 22 70 10 3
2008 Dec 23 70 8 3
2008 Dec 24 70 8 3
2008 Dec 25 70 5 2
2008 Dec 26 70 5 2
2008 Dec 27 70 5 2
2008 Dec 28 70 5 2
2008 Dec 29 70 5 2
2008 Dec 30 70 5 2
2008 Dec 31 70 8 3
2009 Jan 01 70 15 4
2009 Jan 02 70 10 3
2009 Jan 03 70 5 2
2009 Jan 04 70 5 2
2009 Jan 05 70 5 2
(NOAA)