Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Mar 03 0835 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 February - 02 March 2014
An X4/2b x-ray flare on 25/0049 UTC from Region 1990 (S15, L=108, class/area=Hkx/250 on 24 Feb) brought solar activity to high levels and affected the character of the space weather environment for the
remainder of the week. This event was associated with Type II (est. shock speed 1972 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, as well as a fast-moving, asymmetric-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) that was first seen in Lasco C3 imagery at 25/0130 UTC. Although not aimed directly at Earth, the glancing blow from this CME brought major geogmagnetic storm conditions on 27 February described below. Region 1990 was also responsible for two other M1 flares the day prior at 24/1117 UTC (with an Sf optical flare) and 24/1205 UTC. M1 flares were also attributed to Region 1982 (S10, L=106, class/area Ekx/450 on 24 Feb) at 26/1501 UTC (M1/1n) and 01 Mar at 1333 UTC (M1); Region 1992 (S24, L=93, class/area=Eki/370 on 02 Mar) at 28/0048 UTC (M1/Sn); and Region 1986 (N14, L-176, class/area=Cro/40 on 25 Feb) at 02/2319 UTC (M1/Sf).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was elevated following the flare on 25 February. By 25/1355 UTC flux had exceeded the 10 pfu threshold. It stayed above 10pfu throughout the
remainder of the week. On 27 Feb, the flux was further enhancement as the shock from the 25 Feb CME described above arrived. 10 MeV flux briefly crossed S2 (Moderate) levels by 28/0835 UTC, reached a
peak value of 103 pfu at 28/0845 UTC, and began a very gradual decline afterwards. The greater than 100 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was also enhanced following the X4/2b flare, but only reached a peak of 0.9 pfu at 25/1945 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels all week.
For the second time during the month of February, the geomagnetic field reached major storm levels. At 27/1609 UTC, the shock from the 25 Feb CME described earlier arrived at the ACE spacecraft. Solar
wind speed jumped from pre-shock values near 350 km/s to a maximum of 519 km/s by 27/1936 UTC before beginning to decline.. Bz plummeted to -18 nT by 27/1804 UTC while total field reached 22 nT
around the same time. Bz remained mostly negative until about 28/0200 UTC. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was subsequently observed at the Hartland magnetometer (22 nT) at 27/1653 UTC. Geomagnetic
conditions were initially at active levels for the 27/1500-1800 UTC period, but increased to major storm levels for the 27/1800-2100 UTC period. Minor storm (G1-Minor) levels were observed during the
27/2100-2400 UTC period. Unsettled to active levels persisted through the 28th before returning to mostly quiet levels. Data from the GOES 13 and 15 magnetometers suggested a magnetopause crossing around 27/1700 and 2000 UTC, respectively. The geomagnetic storm was also associated with an ionospheric storm-enhanced-density episode over western North America and the east Pacific. Aurora was reported as far south as East Anglia in the United Kingdom. Relatively nominal solar wind conditions returned by late on the 28th after which the geomagnetic field settled down to quiet to occasionally unsettled levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 March - 29 March 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate levels with high levels possible throughout the forecast period.
There is a chance for a proton event at geosynchronous orbit throughout the forecast period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 09-10 and 13-15 March in response to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet and unsettled levels in the absence of any transient features. There is a chance for active levels on 09-10 March in response to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Mar 03 0836 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-03-03
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Mar 03 165 5 2
2014 Mar 04 165 5 2
2014 Mar 05 160 5 2
2014 Mar 06 155 5 2
2014 Mar 07 155 5 2
2014 Mar 08 155 5 2
2014 Mar 09 150 8 3
2014 Mar 10 145 8 3
2014 Mar 11 130 5 2
2014 Mar 12 135 5 2
2014 Mar 13 135 5 2
2014 Mar 14 135 5 2
2014 Mar 15 130 5 2
2014 Mar 16 130 5 2
2014 Mar 17 130 5 2
2014 Mar 18 135 5 2
2014 Mar 19 135 5 2
2014 Mar 20 135 5 2
2014 Mar 21 145 5 2
2014 Mar 22 155 5 2
2014 Mar 23 155 5 2
2014 Mar 24 155 5 2
2014 Mar 25 160 5 2
2014 Mar 26 160 5 2
2014 Mar 27 160 5 2
2014 Mar 28 155 5 2
2014 Mar 29 150 5 2
(NOAA)
