Sunday, October 19, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Oct 20 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 October 2025

Solar activity was at moderate levels with 28 total M-class flares. 25 of these flares were produced by Region 4246 (N24, L=290, class/area=Ekc/840 on 16 Oct), the largest of which was an M4.8/Sf at 15/0415 UTC. Several of the flares from this region were the source of partially Earth-directed CMEs as flanking ejecta impacted the near-Earth environment on 17-18 Oct. Region 4248 (N07, L=261, class/area=Eki/310 on 15 Oct) also produced an M2.0 flare at 14/1247 UTC. These regions were classified as beta-gamma-delta. The remaining regions during this highlight period produced C-class activity but were otherwise unremarkable. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 13-17 Oct due in response to an extended period of coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Normal to moderate levels were reached on 18-19 Oct. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G2 (Moderate) storm levels and periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 18 Oct, and an early period of G1 storm levels on 19 Oct due to influences from what was possibly combined CMEs that left the Sun between 13-15 Oct. G1 storm levels were also observed on 13 Oct due to CH HSS influences. An isolated active period was observed on 15 Oct due to declining CH HSS influence and . Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 14, 16-17 Oct. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 October - 15 November 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels on 31 Oct - 15 Nov due to the return of Region 4246. Low levels are expected to prevail on 20 Oct - 30 Oct, and 14-15 Nov. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-25 Oct, and 29 Oct - 15 Nov due to responses from recurent CH HSS influences . 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 28-30 Oct and 08-09, and 15 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Isolated active periods are expeced on 20, 31 Oct, and 07 Nov also due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled levels are expeced on the remaining days of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Oct 20 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-10-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Oct 20     150          12          4
2025 Oct 21     152          10          3
2025 Oct 22     150           8          3
2025 Oct 23     145           5          2
2025 Oct 24     150          10          3
2025 Oct 25     150          10          3
2025 Oct 26     150           5          2
2025 Oct 27     150           5          2
2025 Oct 28     145          25          5
2025 Oct 29     145          35          6
2025 Oct 30     145          25          5
2025 Oct 31     140          15          4
2025 Nov 01     140           8          3
2025 Nov 02     140           5          2
2025 Nov 03     135           5          2
2025 Nov 04     140           5          2
2025 Nov 05     145           5          2
2025 Nov 06     135           8          3
2025 Nov 07     130          12          4
2025 Nov 08     135          20          5
2025 Nov 09     140          18          5
2025 Nov 10     145          10          3
2025 Nov 11     155          10          3
2025 Nov 12     160           5          2
2025 Nov 13     160           5          2
2025 Nov 14     155           5          2
2025 Nov 15     150          18          5
(NOAA)