RSGB
RadCom Assistant Editor | May 8, 2026
Compiled by G0KYA, G3YLA and G4BAO on Thursday, 7 May 2026
We had another mixed week of HF propagation, with a Kp index of 6 one day and then three days later a Kp of less than 1.
The index hit 6.33 on the evening of Monday, 4 May, sparking aurora and poor HF conditions. But by Wednesday, 6 May it was back down to 0.67.
So, you can see why it is hard to predict what HF conditions are going to be like with ionospheric propagation being driven by the geomagnetic status rather than the solar flux index.
According to the CDXC Slack group, DX worked over the past week
included:
TZ4AM in Mali on 10m CW
T31TTT from Central Kiribati on 12m and 15m FT8 XQ6CF in Chile on 17m CW VP8A on the Falkland Islands on 60m CW 3B9G on 20m CW TL8BNW from Central African Republic on 40m SSB So, there is DX about if you hunt for it. Interestingly, all of the above, apart from T31TTT, were on southward paths, perhaps reflecting poorer conditions on polar paths at times due to the elevated Kp index.
Next week, NOAA predicts that the solar flux index will remain around
115 to 130 with calm geomagnetic conditions for the first half of the week.
However, unsettled geomagnetic conditions are forecast for 15-18 May with a possible Kp index of 5.
With five sunspot groups visible on the Sun’s surface and active region
4419 the source of two X-Flares on Friday, 24 April now about to turn back into Earth’s view, it is anyone’s guess what could happen next.
As we enter mid-May, we are getting closer to summer HF conditions. So Sporadic-E on the higher HF bands, lower maximum usable frequencies overall but perhaps 14MHz staying open all night are all features to watch out for.
Also look out for 10m band openings to Southern Africa around midday and paths to South America during early and late evening.
VHF and up propagation news from G3YLA and G4BAO:
The current period of weather seems to be a mix of weak high pressure and low pressure systems vying for dominance.
Therefore it implies that a mix of radio conditions will share our attention, with weak tropo from ridges of high pressure but no big highs on the chart while frontal rain bands or heavy showers bring a chance of rain scatter for GHz operators.
The prospects for meteor scatter may remain elevated for a while since we have only just passed the peak of the Eta Aquarids on Wednesday, 6 May. Remember the early morning hours tend to be best for meteor activity in general.
The aurora alerts have continued to provide a glimmer of hope but mostly for weak enhancements, so look for a Kp value of 5 or greater and signs of ‘watery’ sounding signals on the HF bands before turning the VHF beams to the north.
As we move into the early part of the Sporadic-E season, it will become the mode of choice for us during the next few months.
The general rule is to check for the two main periods of activity: in mid-morning and again late afternoon or early evening.
Listen for strong signals on the 10m band from Europe and then, as the event develops, the higher frequency bands will open up too.
In a strong event, the 2m band can even show up sounding like 20m.
However, early season events tend to favour the 10 and 6m bands.
EME now. The Moon is past minimum declination and increasing, giving lengthening Moon windows and increasing peak elevation.
Path losses are decreasing now after apogee on Monday, 4 May. 144MHz sky temperature is low all week until Saturday, 16 May when the Sun and Moon are close in the sky.
(Mike Terry, UK/BDXC)
