Showing posts with label . radio propagation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label . radio propagation. Show all posts

Monday, June 08, 2026

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Jun 08 0243 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 June 2026



Solar activity reached high levels on 03 Jun when Region 4455 (N14, L=88, class/area=Dki/360 on 03 Jun) produced an M9.3/Sf flare (accompanied by Type-II (253 km/s) and Type-IV sweeps, and a 360 sfu Tenflare) at 03/0136 UTC, followed by an M7.7/1b flare (accompanied by Type-II (313 km/s) and Type-IV radio sweeps, and a 540 sfu Tenflare with Castelli-U signature) at 03/0700 UTC, and finally an
X1.0/1n flare (accompanied by a Type-IV sweep and a 180 sfu Tenflare) at 03/1128 UTC. The CMEs associated with the three significant flares from AR4455 on 03 Jun arrived at Earth on 05 Jun.
Other activity included an M1.8/2n (accompanied by Type-II (838 km/s) and 190 sfu Tenflare) flare at 06/1401 UTC from Region 4461 (S20, L=09, class/area=Dao/70 on 02 Jun). The resulting partial-halo
CME, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 06/1401 UTC, is anticipated to arrive at Earth around midday on 08 Jun. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced after midday on 06 Jun, following the M1.8/2n flare at 06/1401 UTC from Region 4461, but remained below event levels with a peak flux of 1.0 pfu observed at 06/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually returned to background levels on 07 Jun. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 01-05 Jun, with high levels observed on 06-07 Jun. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm levels on 05 Jun, and active levels on 06 Jun, following the arrival and passage of the CMEs from 03 Jun. The shock arrival was observed
beginning at around 05/0425 UTC, and in the hours following, the total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached 20 nT, the Bz component reached as far southward as -17 nT, and solar wind speeds increased
to a peak near 740 km/s. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels under weak coronal hole high-speed stream influences prevailed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 June - 04 July 2026

Solar activity is expected to be at predominantly low levels through 04 Jul, with M-class flare probabilities ranging from a chance to likely levels throughout the period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 09-10, 13-18 Jun and 04 Jul. Normal to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder
of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels on 08 Jun, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely on 09 Jun, due to the anticipated arrival of the CME that left the Sun
on 06 Jun. Periods of active conditions are likely on 23-26 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Jun 08 0244 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2026-06-08
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2026 Jun 08     135          50          7
2026 Jun 09     132          32          6
2026 Jun 10     130          12          3
2026 Jun 11     130          15          3
2026 Jun 12     128          10          3
2026 Jun 13     128           6          2
2026 Jun 14     120           6          2
2026 Jun 15     118           8          3
2026 Jun 16     120           8          3
2026 Jun 17     122           5          2
2026 Jun 18     122           5          2
2026 Jun 19     125           5          2
2026 Jun 20     125           5          2
2026 Jun 21     128           8          3
2026 Jun 22     130           8          3
2026 Jun 23     132          10          4
2026 Jun 24     134          15          4
2026 Jun 25     134          15          4
2026 Jun 26     132          15          4
2026 Jun 27     130          10          3
2026 Jun 28     132           8          3
2026 Jun 29     130           6          2
2026 Jun 30     128           8          3
2026 Jul 01     125           5          2
2026 Jul 02     130           5          2
2026 Jul 03     128          12          3
2026 Jul 04     125           8          3
(NOAA)

Thursday, January 02, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Dec 30 0435 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 December 2019

Solar activity was very low. New Region 2753 (S29, L=122, class/area Bxo/010 on 25 Dec) developed on the visible disk on late on 23 December while Region 2754 (N25, L=191, class/area Axx/010 on 25 Dec) developed on 24 Dec. Both regions were inactive and decayed to plage on 26 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 27-29 Dec and reached moderate levels on 23-26 Dec. The maximum flux of the period was 462 pfu observed at 25/1810 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A slight enhancement in solar wind parameters occurred beginning late on 25 Dec as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Total field increased to a maximum of 9 nT at 25/1920 UTC while solar wind speed reached a maximum of 415 km/s at 26/1435 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated unsettled period early on 26 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 25 January 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 06-14 and 23-25 Jan while moderate levels are expected on 30 Dec-05 Jan and 15-22 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 30 Dec-01 Jan due to weak CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 14-15 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Dec 30 0435 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-12-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Dec 30      72           8          3
2019 Dec 31      72           8          3
2020 Jan 01      71           8          3
2020 Jan 02      71           5          2
2020 Jan 03      70           5          2
2020 Jan 04      70           5          2
2020 Jan 05      70           5          2
2020 Jan 06      70           5          2
2020 Jan 07      70           5          2
2020 Jan 08      70           5          2
2020 Jan 09      70           5          2
2020 Jan 10      70           5          2
2020 Jan 11      70           5          2
2020 Jan 12      72           5          2
2020 Jan 13      72           5          2
2020 Jan 14      72          12         4
2020 Jan 15      72          12         4
2020 Jan 16      72           5          2
2020 Jan 17      72           5          2
2020 Jan 18      72           5          2
2020 Jan 19      72           5          2
2020 Jan 20      72           5          2
2020 Jan 21      72           5          2
2020 Jan 22      72           5          2
2020 Jan 23      72           5          2
2020 Jan 24      72           5          2
2020 Jan 25      72           5          2
(NOAA)

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Propagation Globe
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0041 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 October 2018

Solar activity was very low this period under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 16-20 Oct and was at moderate levels on 15 and 21 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 15 Oct due to waning, negative polarity CH HSS influence. The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 October - 17 November 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-25 Oct, 04-09 and 12-16 Nov with moderate flux levels expected throughout the remainder of the
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels on 03-04 Nov with active levels expected on 29 Oct and 05-06 Nov due to the influence of recurrent CH HSSs.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 22 0041 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-10-22
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Oct 22      70           6          2
2018 Oct 23      69           5          2
2018 Oct 24      69          12          3
2018 Oct 25      68           8          3
2018 Oct 26      68           8          3
2018 Oct 27      68           5          2
2018 Oct 28      68           8          3
2018 Oct 29      68          12          4
2018 Oct 30      68           5          2
2018 Oct 31      68           5          2
2018 Nov 01      68           5          2
2018 Nov 02      68           5          2
2018 Nov 03      68          22          5
2018 Nov 04      68          20          5
2018 Nov 05      68          15          4
2018 Nov 06      70          15          4
2018 Nov 07      70           8          3
2018 Nov 08      70           5          2
2018 Nov 09      70          12          3
2018 Nov 10      70           8          3
2018 Nov 11      70          10          3
2018 Nov 12      70           5          2
2018 Nov 13      70           5          2
2018 Nov 14      70           5          2
2018 Nov 15      70           5          2
2018 Nov 16      70           5          2
2018 Nov 17      70           5          2
(NOAA)