Showing posts with label Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins-August 17-2026. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins-August 17-2026. Show all posts

Sunday, August 16, 2026

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins, August 17, 2026

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Aug 17 0058 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 August 2026



Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels throughout the
period. No R1 (Minor) or greater events were observed. The largest
flare was a C8.2/Sn at 16/1928 UTC from Region 4506 (N12, L=215,
class/area=Dao/100 on 16 Aug). An associated CME was observed in
LASCO C2 imagery following the C8.2 flare, but analysis is ongoing
in order to determine any Earth-directed component. Other activity
included the lift-off of a large filament near S16E22 at 14/0332 UTC
which produced a CME that is expected to arrive on 17-18 Aug. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was
normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet or quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 August - 12 September 2026

Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low levels
throughout the outlook period, with a slight chance for an R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate) event. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 19-20, 23-24, and 28 Aug. Normal to
moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on
17-18 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun
on 14 Aug. Active conditions are expected again on 21-22 Aug and 04
Sep due to the influences of a CH HSS. Quiet and quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the
outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2026 Aug 17 0058 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2026-08-17
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2026 Aug 17     130          15          4
2026 Aug 18     125          12          4
2026 Aug 19     130           5          2
2026 Aug 20     130           5          2
2026 Aug 21     125          12          4
2026 Aug 22     125          12          4
2026 Aug 23     120          10          3
2026 Aug 24     115           8          3
2026 Aug 25     115           5          2
2026 Aug 26     110           5          2
2026 Aug 27     110           5          2
2026 Aug 28     110           5          2
2026 Aug 29     110           5          2
2026 Aug 30     110           5          2
2026 Aug 31     105           5          2
2026 Sep 01     105           5          2
2026 Sep 02     105           5          2
2026 Sep 03     100           5          2
2026 Sep 04      95          15          3
2026 Sep 05      95           8          3
2026 Sep 06      90           5          2
2026 Sep 07      90           5          2
2026 Sep 08      95           5          2
2026 Sep 09      95           5          2
2026 Sep 10     100           5          2
2026 Sep 11     100           5          2
2026 Sep 12     105           5          2

(NOAA)