Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 1802 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
# Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 October 2011
Solar activity was low. Activity for the period consisted of numerous C-class flares. The primary contributors were Region 1319 (N11, L=051, class/area Eki/280 on 16 October) and 1314 (N25, L=056, class/area Cho/370 on 12 October). The background solar flux levels and sunspot numbers stayed elevated throughout the week due to the number of active regions on the disk, but most of these were stable and were not flare productive.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels throughout the period.
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the week. A brief substorm interval was observed at high latitudes early on 12 October. There was a modest increase to quiet to unsettled levels
with some isolated active periods at high latitudes on 15-16 October. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an increase in solar wind velocity on 15-16 October which had
signatures consistent with a coronal hole driven high speed solar wind stream.
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 1802 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
# Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 October 2011
Solar activity was low. Activity for the period consisted of numerous C-class flares. The primary contributors were Region 1319 (N11, L=051, class/area Eki/280 on 16 October) and 1314 (N25, L=056, class/area Cho/370 on 12 October). The background solar flux levels and sunspot numbers stayed elevated throughout the week due to the number of active regions on the disk, but most of these were stable and were not flare productive.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels throughout the period.
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the week. A brief substorm interval was observed at high latitudes early on 12 October. There was a modest increase to quiet to unsettled levels
with some isolated active periods at high latitudes on 15-16 October. Solar wind observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an increase in solar wind velocity on 15-16 October which had
signatures consistent with a coronal hole driven high speed solar wind stream.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 October - 14 November 2011
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with a chance for an isolated M-class event for 19 October - 01 November due to the number of active regions as well as the return of old Region 1302 (N12, L=280, class/area Fkc/1300 on 24 September), which produced two X-class flares and numerious M-class flares during its previous disk transit. Though initially very active, old Region 1302 decayed and became much less flare productive by the time it exited the solar disk on 05 October. As of the issue date of this report (18 October) old Region 1302 was just beginning to rotate onto the solar disk and appears to be a likely source for occasional C-class flares and may pose a slight threat for M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to decline to very low to low levels for the remainder of the interval from 02-14 November. As always during this time of the cycle there is also a chance for unexpected flux emergence which could elevate solar activity levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels for most of the outlook interval with the exception of 28 October - 01 November when an increase to high levels is expected due to recurrence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for 19-27 October, generally unsettled for 28-30 October, quiet for 31 October - 02 November, unsettled for 03-05 November, quiet for 06-10 November, unsettled for 11-13 November, and quiet for 14 November. The increases to unsettled levels are expected due to recurrence from coronal hole driven high speed solar wind streams.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 1802 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-10-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Oct 19 155 5 2
2011 Oct 20 155 5 2
2011 Oct 21 150 5 2
2011 Oct 22 145 5 2
2011 Oct 23 140 5 2
2011 Oct 24 140 5 2
2011 Oct 25 135 5 2
2011 Oct 26 135 5 2
2011 Oct 27 135 5 2
2011 Oct 28 135 8 3
2011 Oct 29 130 8 3
2011 Oct 30 130 8 3
2011 Oct 31 130 5 2
2011 Nov 01 130 5 2
2011 Nov 02 130 5 2
2011 Nov 03 130 8 3
2011 Nov 04 125 8 3
2011 Nov 05 125 8 3
2011 Nov 06 125 5 2
2011 Nov 07 130 5 2
2011 Nov 08 135 5 2
2011 Nov 09 135 5 2
2011 Nov 10 135 5 2
2011 Nov 11 135 8 3
2011 Nov 12 140 8 3
2011 Nov 13 145 8 3
2011 Nov 14 145 5 2
(NOAA)
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low with a chance for an isolated M-class event for 19 October - 01 November due to the number of active regions as well as the return of old Region 1302 (N12, L=280, class/area Fkc/1300 on 24 September), which produced two X-class flares and numerious M-class flares during its previous disk transit. Though initially very active, old Region 1302 decayed and became much less flare productive by the time it exited the solar disk on 05 October. As of the issue date of this report (18 October) old Region 1302 was just beginning to rotate onto the solar disk and appears to be a likely source for occasional C-class flares and may pose a slight threat for M-class flares. Solar activity is expected to decline to very low to low levels for the remainder of the interval from 02-14 November. As always during this time of the cycle there is also a chance for unexpected flux emergence which could elevate solar activity levels.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels for most of the outlook interval with the exception of 28 October - 01 November when an increase to high levels is expected due to recurrence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for 19-27 October, generally unsettled for 28-30 October, quiet for 31 October - 02 November, unsettled for 03-05 November, quiet for 06-10 November, unsettled for 11-13 November, and quiet for 14 November. The increases to unsettled levels are expected due to recurrence from coronal hole driven high speed solar wind streams.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Oct 18 1802 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-10-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Oct 19 155 5 2
2011 Oct 20 155 5 2
2011 Oct 21 150 5 2
2011 Oct 22 145 5 2
2011 Oct 23 140 5 2
2011 Oct 24 140 5 2
2011 Oct 25 135 5 2
2011 Oct 26 135 5 2
2011 Oct 27 135 5 2
2011 Oct 28 135 8 3
2011 Oct 29 130 8 3
2011 Oct 30 130 8 3
2011 Oct 31 130 5 2
2011 Nov 01 130 5 2
2011 Nov 02 130 5 2
2011 Nov 03 130 8 3
2011 Nov 04 125 8 3
2011 Nov 05 125 8 3
2011 Nov 06 125 5 2
2011 Nov 07 130 5 2
2011 Nov 08 135 5 2
2011 Nov 09 135 5 2
2011 Nov 10 135 5 2
2011 Nov 11 135 8 3
2011 Nov 12 140 8 3
2011 Nov 13 145 8 3
2011 Nov 14 145 5 2
(NOAA)
