Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2012 Dec 17 1124 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 December 2012
Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period came from Region 1629 (N11, L=240, class/area=Dai/170 on 14 December), a C5/Sf 12/0727Z. Region 1630 (N19, L=253, class/area=Cai/90 on 11 December), also produced a C5 flare on 10/0558Z. The remainder of
the period was dominated by infrequent, low-level C-class activity. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the week.
A 10 MeV proton enhancement at geosynchronous orbit was observed on 14-15 December. 10 MeV particle flux was slightly elevated beginning around 14/0900Z. An eruption from the beyond the west limb, in the southern hemisphere, was visible in STEREO-A EUVI imagery beginning around 14/1200Z. 10 MeV flux began climbing more steeply around 14/2245Z, reaching a peak of 9.36 pfu at 15/0155Z, just below the S1 threshold of 10 pfu. Flux returned to normal levels over the course
of the next two days.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the week.
Geomagnetic field activity quiet all week. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from around 270 km/s to the near 470 km/s while Bz was never less than -8 nT. A very weak shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 14/1852Z, and at GOES by 14/1946Z. Isolated unsettled to minor storm levels were subsequently observed at high latitudes mid-day on 15 and 16 December.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 December - 12 January 2013
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for moderate activity through the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background levels except during 19-21 December when a high speed stream is expected to bring the flux to high
levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to begin the forecast period at unsettled levels with a slight chance for an active period on 17-18 December as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. The remainder of the forecast period is expected to be generally quiet barring any geoeffective coronal mass ejections.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2012 Dec 17 1124 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2012-12-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2012 Dec 17 125 16 4
2012 Dec 18 125 12 3
2012 Dec 19 120 7 2
2012 Dec 20 120 5 2
2012 Dec 21 115 5 2
2012 Dec 22 115 5 2
2012 Dec 23 115 5 2
2012 Dec 24 115 5 2
2012 Dec 25 115 5 2
2012 Dec 26 110 5 2
2012 Dec 27 110 5 2
2012 Dec 28 100 5 2
2012 Dec 29 100 8 3
2012 Dec 30 95 5 2
2012 Dec 31 95 5 2
2013 Jan 01 95 5 2
2013 Jan 02 95 5 2
2013 Jan 03 95 5 2
2013 Jan 04 100 5 2
2013 Jan 05 105 5 2
2013 Jan 06 105 5 2
2013 Jan 07 105 5 2
2013 Jan 08 110 5 2
2013 Jan 09 115 5 2
2013 Jan 10 120 5 2
2013 Jan 11 120 5 2
2013 Jan 12 120 5 2
(NOAA)
