Weekly PropagationForecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 November 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was at B6 at 22/0010 UTC from Region 2612 (N09, L=194, class/area Hax/230 on 25 November). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate levels on 22-24 November while high levels were reached on
21 and 25-27 November. The largest flux of the period was 25,245 pfu at 27/1625 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions. Enhanced geomagnetic activity was due to recurrent, positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). The period began with solar wind speeds near 330 km/s on 21 November with an increasing total field from approximately 1 nT early in the period to near 12 nT by 22 November and a fluctuating Bz component between +10 nT and -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased, thereafter, to near 510 km/s by 23 November while total field decreased to near 3 nT. Another enhancement in total field was observed late on 23 November to a maximum near 11 nT on 24 November before decreasing to 5 nT by 25 November. Stepped increases in solar wind speed occurred at 24/0514 UTC from 400 km/s to 500 km/s and at 25/0144 UTC from 500 km/s to near 700 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21 November, quiet to active levels on 22-23 November, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 24 November, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 25 November and quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 November - 24 December 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 28 November-07 December, 10-18 December and again on 22-24 December due to recurrent CH HSS influence.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 28-30 November as the geomagnetic field recovers from positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected from 07-11 December and 19-24 December with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 10 and 21-22 December due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-11-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Nov 28      84           8          3
2016 Nov 29      83           8          3
2016 Nov 30      83           8          3
2016 Dec 01      80           5          2
2016 Dec 02      80           5          2
2016 Dec 03      80           5          2
2016 Dec 04      82           5          2
2016 Dec 05      82           5          2
2016 Dec 06      80           5          2
2016 Dec 07      80          15          4
2016 Dec 08      78          12          4
2016 Dec 09      78          18          4
2016 Dec 10      78          20          5
2016 Dec 11      78          10          3
2016 Dec 12      80           5          2
2016 Dec 13      80           5          2
2016 Dec 14      82           5          2
2016 Dec 15      82           5          2
2016 Dec 16      80           5          2
2016 Dec 17      80           5          2
2016 Dec 18      78           8          3
2016 Dec 19      78          12          4
2016 Dec 20      80          16          4
2016 Dec 21      80          22          5
2016 Dec 22      80          30          5
2016 Dec 23      82          12          4
2016 Dec 24      82          10          3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2014 Oct 06 0253 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 September - 05 October 2014

Solar activity reached high levels this period. Region 2173 (S17, L=250, class/area=Dac/160 on 28 Sep) produced an M7/1f flare on 02 Oct at 1901 UTC while crossing the west limb. Associated Type-II (est. speed 714 km/s) and Type-IV radio emissions were observed with this event. Region 2172 (S11, L=239, class/area=Ekc/570 on 23 Sep) produced an M1/Sf flare on 02 Oct at 1744 UTC. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed off the southwest limb with both of these events, but the proximity of the source regions and event times in addition to incomplete SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery made it difficult to differentiate between the two CMEs. Subsequent analysis determined that these CMEs were directed well west of the Sun-Earth line. Regions 2172 and 2173 were the most productive regions this period and were also responsible for additional low to mid-level C-class flare activity. Two filament eruptions were observed on 02 Oct, the first of which was centered near N18W07 and erupted at 0330 UTC and the second was centered near N29W09 and erupted at 0550 UTC. SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery indicated that the bulk of the ejecta with the filament eruptions were reabsorbed and no subsequent CME signatures were observed in SOHO/LASCO imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low to moderate levels on 30 Sep and 03-05 Oct but reached high levels on 29 Sep and 01-02 Oct, reaching a maximum flux value of 1630 pfu on 01 Oct at 1720 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominately quiet to unsettled levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Isolated periods of active geomagnetic field activity were observed on 29 Sep (1800-2100 UTC), 30 Sep (0300-0600 UTC and 0900-1200 UTC), and 01 Oct (0000-0300 UTC) due to multiple current sheet crossings and prolonged southward Bz. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 October - 01 November 2014

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) flare activity for 15-28 Oct as Regions 2172 (S11, L=239), 2173 (S17, L=250), and 2175 (N17, L=262) return to the visible disk. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for 06-11 Oct and 15-25 Oct with a chance for high levels on 12-15 Oct and 26 Oct-01 Nov due an enhanced solar wind environment caused by the influence of several coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSSs). 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for 08-10, 12-14, 18, and 30 Oct due to a predominately nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled activity is expected for 06-07, 11, 15, 17, 19-20, 25-29, 31 Oct, and 01 Nov due to the weak influence of multiple CH HSSs. Active conditions are expected for 16, 22-24 Oct due to the moderate influence of multiple CH HSSs. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 21 Oct due to strong positive polarity CH HSS effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 06 0253 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-10-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Oct 06     125           8          3
2014 Oct 07     120           8          3
2014 Oct 08     120           5          2
2014 Oct 09     120           5          2
2014 Oct 10     115           5          2
2014 Oct 11     110           8          3
2014 Oct 12     110           5          2
2014 Oct 13     110           5          2
2014 Oct 14     120           5          2
2014 Oct 15     130           8          3
2014 Oct 16     145          15          4
2014 Oct 17     145           8          3
2014 Oct 18     145           5          2
2014 Oct 19     140           8          3
2014 Oct 20     135          10          3
2014 Oct 21     135          20          5
2014 Oct 22     140          15          4
2014 Oct 23     140          15          4
2014 Oct 24     140          15          4
2014 Oct 25     140          10          3
2014 Oct 26     135          10          3
2014 Oct 27     130          10          3
2014 Oct 28     125          10          3
2014 Oct 29     125           8          3
2014 Oct 30     120           5          2
2014 Oct 31     120           8          3
2014 Nov 01     125           8          3

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Dec 09 0428 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 December 2013

Solar activity reached moderate levels this period due to an M1/1n flare on 07 Dec at 0729 UTC from Region 1909 (S18, L=205 class/area Dkc/350 on 01 Dec), which was the largest event of the period. A Tenflare (220 sfu) and a Type-II radio sweep (691 km/s) accompanied this event. A subsequent coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning on 07 Dec at 0748 UTC. The bulk of the ejecta associated with this CME appeared to be directed to the west of Earth, but forecaster analysis and WSA-ENLIL model output indicate that Earth will likely see a flanking portion of this CME midday on 10 Dec (See space weather outlook for expected impacts). While Region 1909 was the most productive region of the period, contributing several mid-level C-class flares in addition to the M-class flare, Regions 1913 (S14, L=268 class/area Dao/130 on 04 Dec) and 1916 (S13, L=169 class/area Eai/240 on 08 Dec) also contributed many low-level C-class flares throughout the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at predominately normal levels with moderate levels observed briefly on 06 Dec from 1020 - 1915 UTC and on 07 Dec from 1555 - 2000 UTC, reaching a maximum flux value of 159 pfu on 06 Dec at 1215 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 02 Dec and 04 - 06 Dec. Unsettled conditions were observed on 03 Dec due to a prolonged period of southward Bz and on 07 Dec with initial onset of a strong positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). An isolated period of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions was observed on 08 Dec at 0000 - 0300 UTC due to a strong co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the CH HSS. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions followed for the 0300 - 0600 UTC synoptic period. CH HSS influence began to subside midday on 08 Dec and active to quiet conditions were observed for the remained of the day.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 December - 04 January 2014

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flare activity (NOAA Scale R1-R2 / Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period with a chance for high levels on 10 - 11 Dec due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 09 - 10 Dec with quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Dec due to combined positive polarity CH HSS effects and the arrival of the 07 Dec CME midday on 10 Dec. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for 12 - 25 Dec. An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected for 26 - 27 Dec with quiet to unsettled levels on 28 Dec due to a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected for 29 Dec - 02 Jan. An increase to unsettled to active levels is  expected for 03 Jan with active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions for 04 Jan with the return of a strong positive polarity CH HSS.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Dec 09 0428 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-12-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Dec 09     168          15          4
2013 Dec 10     170          10          4
2013 Dec 11     172           8          3
2013 Dec 12     172           5          2
2013 Dec 13     170           5          2
2013 Dec 14     168           5          2
2013 Dec 15     165           5          2
2013 Dec 16     168           5          2
2013 Dec 17     170           5          2
2013 Dec 18     170           5          2
2013 Dec 19     170           5          2
2013 Dec 20     170           5          2
2013 Dec 21     172           5          2
2013 Dec 22     172           5          2
2013 Dec 23     175           5          2
2013 Dec 24     175           5          2
2013 Dec 25     175           5          2
2013 Dec 26     172          12          4
2013 Dec 27     170          10          4
2013 Dec 28     170           8          3
2013 Dec 29     170           5          2
2013 Dec 30     165           5          2
2013 Dec 31     160           5          2
2014 Jan 01     160           5          2
2014 Jan 02     160           5          2
2014 Jan 03     155          10          4
2014 Jan 04     150          20          5
(NOAA)

Weekly propagation forecast bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Nov 25 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 November 2013

Solar activity reached high levels during the period. The week began at low levels with C-class flares coming from Regions 1893 (S13, L=102 class/area Eki/480 on 18 Nov), 1897 (S21, L=064 class/area Ekc/610 on 13 Nov) and 1900 (S19, L=105 class/area Dac/150 on 15 Nov). On 19 November, Region 1893 produced an X1/Sf at 19/1026 UTC. An associated CME was observed, along with a Type II (est. speed 1049 km/s) radio sweep and a 530 sfu Tenflare. Low levels returned on 20 November. Moderate levels were reached on 21 and 23 November. Region 1893 produced an M1 at 21/1111 UTC and newly numbered Region 1904 (N12, L=039 class/area Dai/130 on 24 Nov) produced a pair of M1 flares at 23/0232 UTC and 23/1257 UTC. Low levels rounded out the period on 24 November. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 23/2342 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0125 UTC. The CME is not expected to be geo effective. 

A greater than 10 MeV proton enhancement was observed beginning at approximately 19/1245 UTC and reached a maximum flux value of 4 pfu at 19/1825 UTC before returning to background levels by 21 November. The enhancement was likely associated with the X1/Sf flare on 19 November. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet with the exception of three unsettled periods observed between 23/0300 UTC and 23/1200 UTC. The increase in activity appeared to be due to a weak transient. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 November - 21 December 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for isolated M-class activity until the return of old Region 1890 (S13, L=171) on 28 November. Chances for moderate activity increase from 28 November to 16 December as a chain of regions that produced moderate to high activity during the last rotation return to the visible disk. Predominately low level activity is expected for the remainder of the period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 25 - 27 November due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Quiet conditions are expected from 28 November - 03 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated to return on 04 December due to a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are anticipated on 06 - 08 December due to a recurrent positive polarity HSS. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with the exception of 13 - 14 December. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on those two days due to a second negative polarity HSS. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2013 Nov 25 0413 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html 
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-11-25
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Nov 25     130           8          3
2013 Nov 26     130          10          3
2013 Nov 27     130           8          3
2013 Nov 28     135           5          2
2013 Nov 29     135           5          2
2013 Nov 30     135           5          2
2013 Dec 01     135           5          2
2013 Dec 02     140           5          2
2013 Dec 03     145           5          2
2013 Dec 04     145          10          3
2013 Dec 05     150           5          2
2013 Dec 06     150          15          4
2013 Dec 07     155          15          4
2013 Dec 08     165          12          3
2013 Dec 09     165           5          2
2013 Dec 10     165           5          2
2013 Dec 11     165           5          2
2013 Dec 12     165           5          2
2013 Dec 13     165          10          3
2013 Dec 14     165           8          3
2013 Dec 15     160           5          2
2013 Dec 16     155           5          2
2013 Dec 17     145           5          2
2013 Dec 18     140           5          2
2013 Dec 19     140           5          2
2013 Dec 20     135           5          2
2013 Dec 21     130           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Oct 21 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html 
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 October 2013

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 14 Oct with C-class activity from Regions 1861 (S10, L=168, class/area Dho/480 on 15 Oct), 1865 (S22, L=145, class/area Dkc/270 on 13 Oct) and 1869 (N19, L=085, class/area Dso/040 on 13 Oct). The largest event of the day was a C8/1f at 14/1315 UTC from Region 1865. 15 Oct saw activity increase to moderate levels with a pair of M-class flares from Region 1865, the largest an M1/Sn at 15/0838 UTC. Numerous C-class activity was also seen from Regions 1861 and 1865. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed with the 15 Oct activity. Activity levels dipped to low levels on 16 Oct with Region 1865 producing the largest event of the day, a C8/1n at 16/1432 UTC with an associated asymmetric, partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Analysis determined that the relative slow speed (386 km/s) of this CME was unlikely to produce significant effects at Earth.

Region 1861 produced a C1/Sf event at 16/0920 UTC with associated Type II (548 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. C-class activity was also observed from Regions 1867 (N24, L=183, class/area Dao/050 on 13 Oct) and 1870 (S13, L=143 class/area Cro/030 on 14 Oct). Activity increased to moderate levels on 17 Oct with Region 1861 producing an M1 flare at 17/1541 UTC. Additional C-class flaring was observed from Regions 1861 and 1865. Activity levels decreased to low on 18 - 20 Oct with C-class events observed from Regions 1861, 1868 (N23, L=102, class/area Cao/040 on 19 Oct) and Region 1975 (N08, L=026, class/area Esi/150 on 19 Oct). 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate flux levels on 14 - 15 Oct and at high levels 16 - 20 October. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with quiet levels, but field activity ramped up to unsettled to active with the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The field remained elevated through early on 16 Oct when predominately quiet levels persisted through the remainder of the summary period. ACE wind signatures indicated an increase in wind speeds from 320 km/s at the beginning of the period to a peak of about 575 km/s at 15/2036 UTC. Corresponding increases in temperature and density accompanied the speed increase. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total field (Bt) reached a peak of 12 nT at 14/0856 UTC with the Bz component reaching a maximum southward extent of -10 nT at 14/0854 UTC. The phi angle switched from a negative (towards) to a positive (away) orientation at 14/0835 UTC and remained predominately positive through the remainder of the summary period. By late on 15 Oct, Bt and Bz closed up with Bz not varying much beyond +/- 3 nT through the balance of the period. Wind speeds slowly decreased to end-of summary period values of just under 300 km/s. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 October - 16 November 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for isolated moderate level events through the forecast period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 21 Oct, normal to moderate levels on 22 Oct - 10 Nov and moderate to high levels on 11 - 16 Nov. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 21 - 22 Oct and unsettled to active levels on 10 - 13 Nov due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Predominately quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Oct 21 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-10-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Oct 21     130          10          3
2013 Oct 22     125           8          3
2013 Oct 23     120           5          2
2013 Oct 24     120           5          2
2013 Oct 25     115           5          2
2013 Oct 26     115           5          2
2013 Oct 27     110           5          2
2013 Oct 28     110           5          2
2013 Oct 29     105           5          2
2013 Oct 30     100           5          2
2013 Oct 31     100           5          2
2013 Nov 01     105           5          2
2013 Nov 02     115           5          2
2013 Nov 03     120           5          2
2013 Nov 04     120           5          2
2013 Nov 05     120           5          2
2013 Nov 06     125           5          2
2013 Nov 07     125           5          2
2013 Nov 08     125           5          2
2013 Nov 09     125           5          2
2013 Nov 10     125          12          4
2013 Nov 11     130          15          4
2013 Nov 12     135          10          3
2013 Nov 13     135           8          3
2013 Nov 14     130           5          2
2013 Nov 15     120           5          2
2013 Nov 16     115           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Oct 07 1010 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 September - 06 October 2013

Solar activity was at low levels all week. The largest flare was a C2 from Region 1856 (N08, L=226, class/area=Dso/80 on 04 October) at 04/0322 UTC. Region 1857 (S08, L=228, class/area=Hsx/110 on 05 October) produced a C1 flare at 03/2023 UTC. These were the only two regions with C-class activity attributed to them. A long duration C1 flare was observed just beyond the northwest limb at approximately 02/1954 UTC and was associated witha coronal mass ejection (CME).
Another CME was associated with a filament eruption near S13E47 at about 02/2300 UTC. This second CME wsa judged to be potentially geoeffective near its periphery, but a significant disturbance was not expected. A Type-II radio sweep was observed later in the week at 05/0652 UTC. It was attributed to the eruption of a large CME visible in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery beginning around 05/0735
UTC emerging frm beyond the east limb. Finally on 6 October at 1424 UTC, a C1 flare was observed in a filament channel in the southwest quadrant. Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery beginning around 1357 UTC and lasting for a few hours while SOHO/LASCO imagery showed an asymmetrical halo CME associated with this event. Initial WSA-ENLIL model output indicates that this CME is to arrive at Earth between 2200 UTC on 09 October and 0300 UTC on 10 October. 

The 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit reached event levles (S2) during the week in response to the filament eruption and subsequent CME on 29 September. The proton event began when the 10 pfu threshold was crossed at 30/0505 UTC. The event peaked at 30/2005 UTC when the flux reached 182 pfu, followed by a slow
decline. The event ended at 02/0510 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at low to moderate levels all week. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to major, and possibly severe, storm levels. The CME spawned by a 35 degree filament eruption from N15W40 on 19/2337 UTC arrived on 02/0120 UTC. Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft jumped from near 400 km/s to approximately 636 km/s. Bt, which had been hovering near 5 nT rose to almost 32 nt over the next three hours. Bz plunged to almost -30 nT by 02/0425 UTC. The arrival of the CME was also reflected by jumps in temperature and density at ACE. The arrival at Earth's geomagnetic field quickly  followed. A 72 nT sudden impulse was observed at the Boulder magnetometer just 38 minutes (02/0158 UTC) after the shock passed the ACE spacecraft. By 0200 UTC, the estimated planetary K-index (Kp) had reached 5, indicating minor storm levels. (G1, minor, on NOAA scales) Over the course of the next four hours, conditions would reach major storm levels, Kp=6. (G2, Moderate, on the NOAA scales) The high-latitude College, Alaska observatory reported severe storm levels (K=8). Aurora was visible throughout the nighttime sector as far south as Northern Colorado and Southern Wisconsin. Preliminary estimates from GFZ Potsdam suggest the planetary K index reached 7+. The disturbed conditions, ranging from unsettled to minor storm levels, persisted through the first synoptic period of October 3rd (00-03 UTC). The days preceding the CME and following the CME were characterized by extremely quiet conditions. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 October - 02 November 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for moderate activty throughout the forecast period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for most of the period. High levels are expected 11-14 October in response to a large recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 09 and unsettled to active levels on 10 October with arrival of the 06 October coronal mass ejection (CME). Recurrent coronal hole high speed streams are expected to bring unsettled to active levels on 11 - 16 and 21 October. Predominately quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period, barring any further transient activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Oct 07 1010 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-10-07
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Oct 07     105           5          2
2013 Oct 08     105           5          2
2013 Oct 09     100           8          3
2013 Oct 10     100          12          4
2013 Oct 11     105          10          4
2013 Oct 12     105          10          3
2013 Oct 13     105           8          3
2013 Oct 14     105           8          3
2013 Oct 15     105           8          3
2013 Oct 16     105           8          3
2013 Oct 17     105           5          2
2013 Oct 18     105           5          2
2013 Oct 19     105           5          2
2013 Oct 20     100           5          2
2013 Oct 21     105          10          3
2013 Oct 22     105           5          2
2013 Oct 23     105           5          2
2013 Oct 24     100           5          2
2013 Oct 25     100           5          2
2013 Oct 26     100           5          2
2013 Oct 27     100           5          2
2013 Oct 28     100           5          2
2013 Oct 29     100           5          2
2013 Oct 30     105           5          2
2013 Oct 31     105           5          2
2013 Nov 01     100           5          2
2013 Nov 02     100           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Sep 30 0645 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html  
#
#    Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 September 2013

Solar activity was at low levels throughout the period. A total of  three C-class flares were observed from active regions; a C1/Sf at 24/2256 UTC from Region 1846 (S17, L=056, class/area Cso/210 on 21
Sep), a C1 at 29/0127 UTC from Region 1853 (N19, L=080, class/area Cao/30 on 28 Sep), and a C1/Sf at 29/0525 UTC from Region 1850 (N09, L=036, class/area Dao/140 on 27 Sep). Region 1850 was the most magnetically complex region on the disk during the period, developing a beta-gamma magnetic configuration on 27 Sep. A filament eruption (with an approximate extent of 35 heliographic degrees)
centered near N15W40, was observed on SDO/AIA imagery beginning at 29/2145 UTC, and was associated with a long-duration C1 flare. This event produced an asymmetrial partial-halo CME visibile on LASCO C2/C3 coronagraph imagery. Additional imagery and analysis is required to determine when the coronal mass ejection (CME) is to arrive at Earth. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high to moderate levels on 23 Sep and early 24 Sep, and then decreased to and remained at normal levels for the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions (1200 - 1500 UTC) on 24 Sep with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The remainder of the period was quiet. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 September - 26 October 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period. 

NOAA Scale S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm conditions are expected on 30 Sep - 01 Oct due to particle enhancement from the 29 Sep coronal mass ejection (CME). No S1 or greater proton events are
expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 30 Sep - 10 Oct due to combined coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and CME effects.
Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 30 Sep, and quiet to unsettled levels on 01 - 02 Oct with CH HSS effects. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 02 - 04 Oct with likely arrival of the 29 Sep CME associated with a filament eruption. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 10 - 11 Oct, 14 - 16 Oct, and 21 Oct, all due to CH HSS effects. The remainder of the period is expected to be at quiet levels, barring any further transient activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 30 0645 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html 
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-09-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Sep 30     100          12          4
2013 Oct 01     100          10          3
2013 Oct 02      95           8          3
2013 Oct 03      95           5          2
2013 Oct 04      95           5          2
2013 Oct 05      95           5          2
2013 Oct 06      95           5          2
2013 Oct 07      95           5          2
2013 Oct 08      95           5          2
2013 Oct 09      95           5          2
2013 Oct 10      95           8          3
2013 Oct 11     100           8          3
2013 Oct 12     100           5          2
2013 Oct 13     105           5          2
2013 Oct 14     105           8          3
2013 Oct 15     105          10          3
2013 Oct 16     105           8          3
2013 Oct 17     105           5          2
2013 Oct 18     100           5          2
2013 Oct 19      95           5          2
2013 Oct 20      95           5          2
2013 Oct 21      95          10          3
2013 Oct 22      95           5          2
2013 Oct 23      95           5          2
2013 Oct 24      90           5          2
2013 Oct 25      90           5          2
2013 Oct 26      85           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Sep 09 0225 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 - 08 September 2013

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Very low levels were observed on 02 September. Activity increased to low levels on 03 September with a single C1/Sf flare at 03/1747 UTC from Region 1834 (N12, L=021, class/area Dai/090 on 02 September). 04 September saw 8 C-class events, the largest a C3/Sf at 04/0431 UTC from Region 1837 (S16, L=352, class/area Dsi/130 on 05 September). A pair of C-class flares were observed on 05 September, the largest a C1/Sf at 05/1955 UTC from Region 1836 (N11, L=339 class/area Cao/180 on 30 August). Low levels continued on 06 September with a C1 x-ray event from an unnumbered region beyond the NE limb. The period closed out on 07 - 08 September with very low levels. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during the summary period. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels through the summary period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. 02 - 03 September observed quiet to unsettled levels due to residual coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects combined with weak effects from the 30 August CME. The remainder of the period saw quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period early on 08 September. Solar wind began the period on 02 September at about 525 km/s, declined in speed to near 350 km/s by early on 03 September and varied between 350 km/s to 500 km/s through the remainder of the period. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt varied between 3 to 9 nT while the Bz component of the IMF did not vary much beyond +7/-5 nT. Phi angle was in a predominately negative (towards) orientation for a majority of the period with positive (away) orientation on 02 September and again on 08 September. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 September - 05 October 2013

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high levels on 12 - 16 September, 19 - 23 September and 29 September - 05 October due to activity associated with CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 09 - 13 September with isolated active periods on 09 and 12 September due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 - 16 September. Quiet to active conditions are expected from 17 - 20 September, quiet to unsettled conditions from 23 - 24 September and quiet to active conditions on 26 - 29
September due to CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remaining periods. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2013 Sep 09 0225 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-09-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Sep 09     105          10          4
2013 Sep 10     110          10          3
2013 Sep 11     110           8          3
2013 Sep 12     110          18          4
2013 Sep 13     110           8          3
2013 Sep 14     110           8          3
2013 Sep 15     110           5          2
2013 Sep 16     105           5          2
2013 Sep 17     100          15          4
2013 Sep 18     105          15          4
2013 Sep 19     110          15          4
2013 Sep 20     115           8          3
2013 Sep 21     120           5          2
2013 Sep 22     120           5          2
2013 Sep 23     115           5          2
2013 Sep 24     115           5          2
2013 Sep 25     115           5          2
2013 Sep 26     115          10          3
2013 Sep 27     115          15          4
2013 Sep 28     115          10          3
2013 Sep 29     115          10          3
2013 Sep 30     115           5          2
2013 Oct 01     110           5          2
2013 Oct 02     105           5          2
2013 Oct 03     100           5          2
2013 Oct 04      95           5          2
2013 Oct 05      95           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly propagation forecast bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Sep 02 0622 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 01 September 2013

Solar activity was at very low to low levels. The period began at very low levels and continued until 28 August. By 29 August, low levels were reached with an isolated C1 flare from Region 1836 (N11, L=339, class/area Cao/180 on 30 August) at 29/0434 UTC. Also on 29 August was a 44 degree filament eruption centered near S40E00 that produced a coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at approximately 29/0600 UTC. The ejecta was directed south of the ecliptic plane and was determined to not be geoeffective. On 30 August, a long duration C8/1f flare was observed from Region 1836 at 30/0246 UTC. Associated with this flare were Type II (1318 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps as well as a partially Earth-directed CME (estimated speed of 1071 km/s). By 31 August through 01 September,only low level C-class flaring was observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 26-27 August due to activity associated with a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Normal to moderate levels were observed for the rest of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Quiet levels were observed until mid-day on 27 August. At approximately 0700 on 27 August, solar wind speed, density and total field measurements began to rise. The Bz component of the went southward to a maximum of -13 nT while wind speed slowly increased to a maximum of 512 km/s by early on 28 August. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at approximately 27/1816 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to minor storm levels that continued through early on 28 August. By 0800 on 28 August, the total field was diminished to around 4 nT while the solar wind was in decline. Quiet levels were observed once again through late on 30 August, when a positive polarity CH HSS moved into geoeffective position.

Solar wind speeds increased to near 430 km/s while the total field increased to around 9 nT. Total field slowly declined to near 5 nT by late on 31 August, however wind speeds briefly increased at approximately 01/0630 UTC to near 580 km/s before ending the period around 450 km/s. Active periods were observed late on 30 August through early on 31 August, but diminished to quiet to unsettled periods for the remainder of the period. The August 30 CME appeared to have a weak impact early on 02 September; however no significant geomagnetic effects were observed at the time of this report. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September - 28 September 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. A chance for an M-class flare exists with the return of old Region 1817 (S21, L=241) from 02-15 September. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 04-07 September, 12-16 September, 19-23 September, and again on 27-28 September due to activity associated with CH HSSs. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 02 September associated with activity from the 30 August CME. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 04 September, 10-14 September, 17-19 September, 26-28 September due to CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled periods are expected on 23-24 September due to a solar sector boundary crossing. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Sep 02 0622 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-09-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Sep 02     105          15          4
2013 Sep 03     108           5          2
2013 Sep 04     110           8          3
2013 Sep 05     112           5          2
2013 Sep 06     112           5          2
2013 Sep 07     115           5          2
2013 Sep 08     115           5          2
2013 Sep 09     110           5          2
2013 Sep 10     110          10          3
2013 Sep 11     115          15          4
2013 Sep 12     120          18          4
2013 Sep 13     120           8          3
2013 Sep 14     120           8          3
2013 Sep 15     120           5          2
2013 Sep 16     115           5          2
2013 Sep 17     115          12          4
2013 Sep 18     110          18          4
2013 Sep 19     105          15          4
2013 Sep 20     105           5          2
2013 Sep 21     110           5          2
2013 Sep 22     110           5          2
2013 Sep 23     105           8          3
2013 Sep 24     105           8          3
2013 Sep 25     100           5          2
2013 Sep 26     100           8          3
2013 Sep 27     100          10          3
2013 Sep 28     100           8          3

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Aug 26 0608 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 - 25 August 2013

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The period began at low levels which persisted through 23 August. The majority of the C-class flare events were from Regions 1818 (S07, L=214, class/area Dhc/340 on 13 August), 1820 (S12, L=177, class/area Dai/130 on 21 August), and 1828 (N16, L=089, class/area Cao/60 on 20 August). The largest flare of the period was a C4/Sf which occurred at 22/0506 UTC from Region 1820. Moderate growth was observed in Region 1820 from 19-21 August and in Regions 1830 and 1831 on 22 and 23 August, respectively. By 25 August, the majority of the spotted regions had either decayed to plage or rotated around the western limb. Solar activity was at very low levels on 24 and 25 August. A 51-degree filament eruption centered near S47E24 erupted between 20/0400 UTC and 20/0829 UTC. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) with an approximate speed of 681 km/s, first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 20/0824 UTC, was observed with the majority of the ejecta off the SW limb.

A small enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was observed beginning at approximately 20/2300 UTC, reached a maximum of 2 pfu at 21/1330, and returned to background levels around 21/2100 UTC. The enhancement was likely associated with backsided CME activity.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 22 August. High levels were observed the rest of the period due to a combination of coronal hole high speed stream
(CH HSS) and CME effects.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with mostly quiet conditions on 19 and 20 August. By late on 20 August, the total field component (Bt) increased from 4 nT to 11 nT while the Bz component went south to -10 nT. A corresponding increase in solar wind speed and density was observed at 20/2135 UTC indicating a weak shock arrival from the 18 Aug CME associated with an M1 flare. Subsequently, a geomagnetic sudden impulse (26 nT) was observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 20/2231 UTC. Solar wind speed continued to increase from 380 km/s to near 550 km/s from 21 to 22 August with the total field between 3 and 10 nT while the Bz component varied between +7 nT and -6 nT as a positive polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. Solar wind conditions persisted through mid-day on 23 August reaching a maximum of 610 km/s at 22/0712 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active levels on 21 August while quiet to active levels were observed on 22 and 23 August. Another weak shock passage (3 nT deviation in total field) was observed at 23/2355 UTC due to the arrival of a glancing blow from the 20 August CME. No significant geomagnetic effects were observed with the shock passage. The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet on 24 and 25 August.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 21 September 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. A chance for an M-class flare exists with the return of old Region 1817 (S21, L=241) from 02-15 September.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels with high levels expected on 27-29 August, 02-07 September, 12-16 September, and again on 9-21 September due to activity associated with recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet with the exception of quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 August and 05 September due to CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 31 August - 02 September, 10-14 September, and again on 17-19 September due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 26 0608 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-08-26
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Aug 26     110          12          3
2013 Aug 27     105           8          3
2013 Aug 28     100           5          2
2013 Aug 29     100           5          2
2013 Aug 30      95           5          2
2013 Aug 31      90          15          4
2013 Sep 01      90          15          4
2013 Sep 02     100          10          3
2013 Sep 03     105           5          2
2013 Sep 04     105           5          2
2013 Sep 05     110           8          3
2013 Sep 06     115           5          2
2013 Sep 07     120           5          2
2013 Sep 08     125           5          2
2013 Sep 09     125           5          2
2013 Sep 10     125          10          3
2013 Sep 11     125          15          4
2013 Sep 12     125          18          4
2013 Sep 13     125           8          3
2013 Sep 14     125           8          3
2013 Sep 15     120           5          2
2013 Sep 16     115           5          2
2013 Sep 17     115          12          4
2013 Sep 18     110          18          4
2013 Sep 19     105          15          4
2013 Sep 20     105           5          2
2013 Sep 21     105           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jul 29 0846 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 July 2013

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the week was a C3/Sf from Region 1800 (S08, L=162, class/area=Dao/220) at 28/1223 UTC. Region 1800 was the largest, most magnetically complex (beta-gamma), and most productive region on the visible disk this week. The remaining regions were generally small and docile in comparison. While a few coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed throughout the week, analysis suggested none were Earth-directed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 22-25 July and again on 27 July. Remarkably, 25 July marked the last day of a 16 day streak of high electron flux
levels which began on 10 July.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout most of the week, with the exception of 25-26 July. On those two days, planetary conditions reached active levels with a single period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The increased activity came in response to the onset of a recurrent,positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels returned on 27 July and lasted through the end of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 July - 24 August 2013

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1 radio blackouts) flares through the period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels through 02 August, and and again after 22 August in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period, barring any geoeffective transient features. There is a chance for active levels on 03-04 August and again on 21-23 August in response to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2013 Jul 29 0847 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2013-07-29

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2013 Jul 29     110           7          2

2013 Jul 30     120           5          2

2013 Jul 31     120           5          2

2013 Aug 01     115           5          2

2013 Aug 02     115           8          3

2013 Aug 03     115          12          3

2013 Aug 04     110          12          3

2013 Aug 05     110           8          3

2013 Aug 06     110           5          2

2013 Aug 07     105           5          2

2013 Aug 08     110           5          2

2013 Aug 09     105           8          3

2013 Aug 10     105           8          3

2013 Aug 11     105           8          3

2013 Aug 12     105           5          2

2013 Aug 13     100           5          2

2013 Aug 14     105           8          3

2013 Aug 15     105           8          3

2013 Aug 16     105           5          2

2013 Aug 17     105           5          2

2013 Aug 18     105           5          2

2013 Aug 19     100           5          2

2013 Aug 20     100           5          2

2013 Aug 21     100          10          3

2013 Aug 22     100          15          3

2013 Aug 23     100          10          3

2013 Aug 24     100           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly propagation forecast bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Jul 15 0430 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 July 2013

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period was a C9/Sf at 08/0122 UTC from Region 1785 (S09, L=7, class/area=Ekc/570 on 08 July). This region was responsible for the majority of the C-class flares during the period. Region 1787 (S15, L=348, class/area=Eai/230 on 09 July) was the second most prolific flare producer and is credited with a C4/1n flare at 10/0643 UTC. The remaining regions were relatively small and inactive. A 12-degree filament occurred at 09/1400 UTC resulting in an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) with an estimated  speed of 400 km/s. Another slow-moving CME with a potential Earth-directed component was observed at 12/1824 UTC, however, the quality of available coronagraph imagery prevented meaningful analysis. The remainder of the week was devoid of potentially geoeffective events. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 10 - 14 July and was at moderate levels before that. A peak flux value of 22,500 pfu was reported on 12 July at 1850 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor (NOAA Scale G1) geomagnetic storm conditions during the week. An Earth-directed CME which left the Sun on 06 July arrived at the ACE spacecraft at approximately 09/1958 UTC. A 25 nT sudden impulse was subsequently recorded at the Fredericksburg magnetometer at 09/2049 UTC. By 09/2359 UTC, the geomagnetic field had reached active levels, and by
10/0257 UTC, minor (NOAA Scale G1) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed. Minor (G1) storm conditions prevailed for two periods, after which, active to unsettled conditions were observed. The College magnetometer (high latitude) reported major (NOAA Scale G2) geomagnetic storm levels. The following day, there was an isolated minor (G1) storm period nestled among otherwise quiet to active conditions. By 12 July, the field had returned to mostly quiet levels when a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a small negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) arrived. By 13 July, the diffuse remnants of the CME from 09 July had arrived, bringing Bt values at the ACE spacecraft to 17 nT. Bz remained positive for the majority of 13 July, so, with the exception of a single active period, the geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions returned on 14 July, after an extended period of southward Bz, reaching about -10 nT.  Minor (G1) to Major (G2) storm levels were observed at high latitude. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 July - 10 August 2013

Solar activity is expected to remain low with a slight chance for isolated low (R1) radio blackouts throughout the period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 20 July through the end of the month due to a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to minor (G1) storm conditions early on 15 July due to transient passage, decreasing back to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active conditions for the remainder of 25 July. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to persist until 17 - 21 July, when a recurrent CH HSS is expected to bring unsettled to active
conditions with a chance for minor (G1) storm conditions. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are once again expected until 25 - 27 July, when another recurrent CH HSS is expected to bring active to minor (G1) storm conditions with a chance for major (G2) storm conditions. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 15 0430 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-07-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Jul 15     125          12          3
2013 Jul 16     120           8          3
2013 Jul 17     120          10          3
2013 Jul 18     125          15          4
2013 Jul 19     125          15          4
2013 Jul 20     125          15          4
2013 Jul 21     120          15          4
2013 Jul 22     110           8          3
2013 Jul 23     105           5          2
2013 Jul 24     100           5          2
2013 Jul 25     100          18          4
2013 Jul 26     105          30          5
2013 Jul 27     110          10          3
2013 Jul 28     110           5          2
2013 Jul 29     120           5          2
2013 Jul 30     125           5          2
2013 Jul 31     130           5          2
2013 Aug 01     135           5          2
2013 Aug 02     135           5          2
2013 Aug 03     130           5          2
2013 Aug 04     125           5          2
2013 Aug 05     125           5          2
2013 Aug 06     125           5          2
2013 Aug 07     125           5          2
2013 Aug 08     125           5          2
2013 Aug 09     120           8          3
2013 Aug 10     120           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Jul 08 0623 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 - 07 July 2013

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 01 - 02 July, predominately from new Region 1785 (S11, L=006, class/area Ekc/680 on 05 July). Activity briefly increased to moderate levels on 03 July when new Region 1787 (S15, L=349, class/area Eai/170 on 05 July) produced an M1/Sf at 03/0708 UTC. Weak, low frequency radio emissions accompanied this event including a Type II spectral sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 1033 km/s. Activity levels returned to low on 04 July and remained there for the balance of the period. Numerous C-class activity, ranging from C1 to C8, was observed from Regions 1785 and 1787 during this time frame. At 06/1601 UTC, a faint, slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. WSA-ENLIL model output suggested the CME had an Earth-directed component with an arrival time expected for early on 10 July. The source location of this CME was uncertain. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels on 01 - 05 Jul and at moderate levels on 06 - 07 Jul. A
maximum flux of 6,620 pfu was observed at 04/1620 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The period began with unsettled periods early on 01 July and relaxed to quiet levels through late on 05 July. During this time frame, ACE wind measurements indicated a gradual decay in speed from about 550 km/s to near 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt ranged from 3 to 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +3 to -5 nT. The Phi component was in a predominately positive (away) orientation through late on the 5th. At about 05/1900 UTC, Bz gradually turned southward and remained so through about 07/0200 UTC. Bz reached a maximum of -13 nT at 06/0253 UTC while Bt peaked at 13 nT. The Phi angle switched to a predominately negative
(toward) orientation at about 06/0500 UTC and remained negative through about 07/1600 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with unsettled to active conditions with minor to major high latitude storming through early on 07 July. This discontinuity in ACE, and the related geomagnetic activity, was possibly due to effects from the 30 June CME. For the balance of the period, the geomagnetic
field returned to quiet levels as Bz turned mostly positive to about +5 nT and wind speed further decayed to end-of-period values near 300 km/s. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 July - 03 August 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a chance for M-class activity through the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels from 08 - 19 July and moderate to high levels from 20 July - 03 Aug. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels from 08 - 11 July due to combined effects from a positive coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and effects from the 06 July CME. Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 12 - 16 July. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 17 - 21 July as a recurrent, negative CH HSS rotates into a geoeffective position.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 22 July - 03 August. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 08 0623 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-07-08
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Jul 08     125          10          3
2013 Jul 09     130          10          3
2013 Jul 10     135          15          4
2013 Jul 11     140           8          3
2013 Jul 12     140           5          2
2013 Jul 13     135           5          2
2013 Jul 14     120           5          2
2013 Jul 15     125           5          2
2013 Jul 16     120           5          2
2013 Jul 17     120          10          3
2013 Jul 18     125          15          4
2013 Jul 19     125          15          4
2013 Jul 20     125          15          4
2013 Jul 21     120          15          4
2013 Jul 22     110           8          3
2013 Jul 23     105           5          2
2013 Jul 24     100           5          2
2013 Jul 25     100           5          2
2013 Jul 26     105           5          2
2013 Jul 27     110           5          2
2013 Jul 28     110           5          2
2013 Jul 29     120           5          2
2013 Jul 30     125           5          2
2013 Jul 31     130           5          2
2013 Aug 01     135           5          2
2013 Aug 02     135           5          2
2013 Aug 03     130           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2013 Jul 01 0420 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 - 30 June 2013

Solar activity was at low levels during the period. Numerous low-level C-class activity was recorded from a variety of regions, the largest a C9/1n at 24/1132 UTC from Region 1778 (S16, L=129, class/area Hsx/110 on 22 June). The largest region on the disk, Region 1775 (S26, L=223, class/area Dkc/410 on 18 June) was responsible for a few low-level C-class flares. Numerous filament eruptions were recorded during the period with possibly three observed to have Earth-directed CME components. The first Earth-directed eruption occurred during 24/1104 - 1204 UTC when a 15 degree long filament, centered near S14W26, erupted. The second Earth-directed eruption occurred during 28/0129 - 0250 UTC associated with a C4/Sf parallel-ribbon flare at 28/0159 UTC from Region 1777 (S15, L=162, class/area Cso/200 on 22 June). ENLIL model analysis suggested a possible weak impact from the resultant CME late on 30 June to early on 01 July. The third Earth-directed CME occurred during 29/0921 - 2342 UTC when a 16 degree long filament, centered near S17W22, erupted. ENLIL model analysis suggested a possible glancing blow from the resultant CME mid to late on 04 July. 

A greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosunchronous orbit was observed during the period. In response to an M2 flare observed on 21 June, protons became enhanced at approximately 21/1600 UTC. At 23/2010 UTC, flux levels exceeded the 10 pfu threshold, reached a maximum of 14 pfu at 24/0520 UTC and ended at 24/0850 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 24 - 28 June, reaching a maximum flux of 17,678 at 27/1640 UTC. Electron flux levels decayed to moderate levels on 29 - 30 June. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to severe storm levels. The period began with quiet to active levels from 24 June to early on 25 June due to waning effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). During this period, solar wind speeds averaged about 550 km/s with total field (Bt) measurements in the 4 to 6 nT range and the Bz component mostly negative to -6 nT. Through midday on 27 June, wind speeds gradually decreased to about 375 km/s, Bt relaxed to about
2-3 nT while Bz was mostly neutral. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to isolated unsettled levels. At 27/1353 UTC, wind speeds increased sharply from about 380 km/s to 460 km/s for a short period and then gradually declined to about 350 km/s through early on 29 June. Bt increased to 8 nT while the Bz component ranged from -5 to -7 nT. This discontinuity at the ACE satellite was possibly due to effects from the 24 June CME. A 44 nT sudden impulse was recorded at the Hartland magnetometer at 27/1440 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active conditions which persisted through early on 28 June. This was followed by a short interval of quiet levels through midday on 28 June. At about 28/0800 UTC, the Bz component began a slow, negative dive reaching a maximum of -12 nT at 27/1905 UTC. It remained between -10 nT to -12 nT through about 29/1100 UTC. Bt reached a maximum of 13 nT during this time frame. Through the remainder of the period, Bz generally indicated fluctuations of +/- 5 nT. By about 29/0400 UTC, solar wind began a gradual increase from 350 km/s to end the period near 500 km/s. From midday on 28 June through 29 June, the geomagnetic field responded  with unsettled to severe storm conditions. Indications are that this activity was a result of the 28 June slow-moving transient coupled with a corotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent, positive CH HSS. Additional indications of a transition from a transient feature to the CH HSS was a change in the Phi orientation from negative (toward) to positive (away) late on 28 June coupled with increases in temperature and density. By 30 June, the geomagnetic field had relaxed to quiet to unsettled conditions. Finally, a 24 nT shock passage was observed at the Hartland magnetometer at 30/1125 UTC, likely an indication of the arrival of the expected CME that erupted on 28 June. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 July - 27 July 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity through the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high to very high levels from 01 - 06 July, at normal to moderate levels from 07 - 19 July and high to very levels from 20 - 27 July. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active levels due to combined effects from a positive CH HSS and effects from the 29 June CME. Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 06 - 16 July. Unsettled to active conditions are expected from 17 - 21 July as a recurrent, negative CH HSS rotated into a geoeffective position. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 22 - 27 July. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jul 01 0421 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-07-01
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Jul 01     110           8          3
2013 Jul 02     110           5          2
2013 Jul 03     105          10          3
2013 Jul 04     100          15          3
2013 Jul 05     100           7          2
2013 Jul 06      95           5          2
2013 Jul 07     100           5          2
2013 Jul 08     110           5          2
2013 Jul 09     115           5          2
2013 Jul 10     115           5          2
2013 Jul 11     120           5          2
2013 Jul 12     120           5          2
2013 Jul 13     120           5          2
2013 Jul 14     125           5          2
2013 Jul 15     125           5          2
2013 Jul 16     125           5          2
2013 Jul 17     130          10          3
2013 Jul 18     130          15          4
2013 Jul 19     130          15          4
2013 Jul 20     120          15          4
2013 Jul 21     115          18          4
2013 Jul 22     110           5          2
2013 Jul 23     110           5          2
2013 Jul 24     105           5          2
2013 Jul 25     105           5          2
2013 Jul 26     100           5          2
2013 Jul 27     100          10          3

(NOAA)