Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jun 10 0405 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html # # Weekly Highlights and Forecasts #
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 - 09 June 2013 Solar activity was very low to high during the period. The week began at low levels. Region 1762 (S30, L=129, class/area Eko/540 on 05 June) produced a C9/Sf flare at 03/0725 UTC. Activity was very low on 04 June. Moderate levels were observed on 05 June when Region 1762 produced an M1/1f at 05/0857 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep and a weak CME. The majority of the ejecta was directed southwest. 06 June saw a return to very low activity. High activity was observed on 07 June when Region 1762 produced an M5 flare at 07/2249 UTC along with a 160 sfu Tenflare. An associated CME was observed but was determined to be directed west and well south of the ecliptic. Solar activity returned to low levels for the remainder of the period. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The GOES-13 spacecraft began experiencing data outages on 15 May and was shut down while the cause was investigated. Forecasters used GOES-15 data in the interim. The issue was resolved on 05 June and GOES-13 resumed its place as the primary particle monitor at that time. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels for the entire period with only short periods dipping below threshold. The peak flux for the week reached 31,800 pfu on 04 June and levels remained high at the time of this report. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels from 03 - 06 June. Activity increased to unsettled to active levels on 06 June due to effects from a combination of multiple weak transients from 03 June and a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Minor to major storm periods were observed on 07 June due to continued effects from the CIR/CH HSS. Activity returned to quiet to unsettled levels on 08 and 09 June as CH HSS stream effects began to subside. Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 June - 06 July 2013 Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the majority of the period. A chance for M-class activity exists beginning on 21 June with the return of old Region 1762. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels through 11 June. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is expected from 12 - 19 June. A return to moderate to high levels is expected from 20 June through the end of the period due to effects from a sequence of recurrent CH HSS. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 10 June as CH HSS effects subside. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 11 - 20 June. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 21 - 24 June with a chance for isolated minor storm periods on 21-22 June due to the anticipated return of a recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 25-27 June. A second recurrent CH HSS is expected to return on 28 June - 01 July bringing unsettled to active conditions with the possibility of minor storm levels on 28 and 29 June. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with a chance for some unsettled periods on 05 - 06 July due to weak CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jun 10 0405 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table - Issued 2013-06-10 # # UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest # Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index 2013 Jun 10 95 8 3 2013 Jun 11 95 5 2 2013 Jun 12 100 5 2 2013 Jun 13 100 5 2 2013 Jun 14 105 5 2 2013 Jun 15 105 5 2 2013 Jun 16 105 5 2 2013 Jun 17 105 5 2 2013 Jun 18 105 5 2 2013 Jun 19 105 5 2 2013 Jun 20 110 5 2 2013 Jun 21 115 25 5 2013 Jun 22 115 18 4 2013 Jun 23 115 10 3 2013 Jun 24 115 8 3 2013 Jun 25 110 5 2 2013 Jun 26 105 5 2 2013 Jun 27 105 5 2 2013 Jun 28 105 30 5 2013 Jun 29 110 20 4 2013 Jun 30 110 10 3 2013 Jul 01 110 8 3 2013 Jul 02 110 5 2 2013 Jul 03 110 5 2 2013 Jul 04 110 5 2 2013 Jul 05 105 10 3 2013 Jul 06 100 10 3
(NOAA)
