Monday, November 28, 2016

Weekly PropagationForecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact  www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 November 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest flare of the period was at B6 at 22/0010 UTC from Region 2612 (N09, L=194, class/area Hax/230 on 25 November). No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate levels on 22-24 November while high levels were reached on
21 and 25-27 November. The largest flux of the period was 25,245 pfu at 27/1625 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm conditions. Enhanced geomagnetic activity was due to recurrent, positive-polarity, coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS). The period began with solar wind speeds near 330 km/s on 21 November with an increasing total field from approximately 1 nT early in the period to near 12 nT by 22 November and a fluctuating Bz component between +10 nT and -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased, thereafter, to near 510 km/s by 23 November while total field decreased to near 3 nT. Another enhancement in total field was observed late on 23 November to a maximum near 11 nT on 24 November before decreasing to 5 nT by 25 November. Stepped increases in solar wind speed occurred at 24/0514 UTC from 400 km/s to 500 km/s and at 25/0144 UTC from 500 km/s to near 700 km/s. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21 November, quiet to active levels on 22-23 November, unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 24 November, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 25 November and quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 November - 24 December 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares for the forecast period.  No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 28 November-07 December, 10-18 December and again on 22-24 December due to recurrent CH HSS influence.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on 28-30 November as the geomagnetic field recovers from positive polarity CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected from 07-11 December and 19-24 December with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 10 and 21-22 December due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Nov 28 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-11-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Nov 28      84           8          3
2016 Nov 29      83           8          3
2016 Nov 30      83           8          3
2016 Dec 01      80           5          2
2016 Dec 02      80           5          2
2016 Dec 03      80           5          2
2016 Dec 04      82           5          2
2016 Dec 05      82           5          2
2016 Dec 06      80           5          2
2016 Dec 07      80          15          4
2016 Dec 08      78          12          4
2016 Dec 09      78          18          4
2016 Dec 10      78          20          5
2016 Dec 11      78          10          3
2016 Dec 12      80           5          2
2016 Dec 13      80           5          2
2016 Dec 14      82           5          2
2016 Dec 15      82           5          2
2016 Dec 16      80           5          2
2016 Dec 17      80           5          2
2016 Dec 18      78           8          3
2016 Dec 19      78          12          4
2016 Dec 20      80          16          4
2016 Dec 21      80          22          5
2016 Dec 22      80          30          5
2016 Dec 23      82          12          4
2016 Dec 24      82          10          3
(NOAA)