Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Mar 14 0554 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 March 2022
Solar activity was at low levels most of the period with the exception of 11 Mar when it reached moderate levels due to an M2/Sf flare at 11/2232 UTC from Region 2964 (S28, L=012, class/area Dso/070 on 10 Mar). Associated with the M2 flare was a CME off the SW limb beginning at 12/0000 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. WSA-Enlil analysis showed no Earth-directed component. Two other CMEs had Earth-directed components, however. The first was on 06 Mar that began as a filament eruption in the NE quadrant centered near N15W35 beginning at 06/2252 UTC. A subsequent CME was observed off the NW limb beginning at 07/0000 UTC. WSA-Enlil analysis showed a glancing blow arrival late on 10 Mar. The second was associated with a long duration C2 flare at 10/2045 UTC near Region 2962 (N26, L=324, Cro/030 on 06 Mar). A partial halo CME was observed from that event beginning at 10/1912 UTC. WSA-Enlil analysis showed an impact arrival around late on 13 Mar.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. A proton enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV protons to 2 pfu was observed at 11/0720 UTC likely associated with the long duration C2 flare at 10/2045 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 07-10 March with a peak of 10,194 pfu observed at 07/1525 UTC. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 11-13 Mar. Geomagnetic field activity began under waning negative polarity CH HSS conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 500 km/s to at or below 400 km/s by late on 08 Mar. Nominal levels followed through most of 10 Mar. The field responded with quiet to unsettled periods on 07 Mar through late on 10 Mar. At 10/1642 UTC, density increased to 32 1/cm^3 while total field increased to a maximum of 18 nT at 10/2057 UTC while the Bz component was between +16/-10 nT as the 06 Mar CME began to impact the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed was mostly between 350-420 km/s. Activity persisted through 12/0600 UTC with several prolonged periods of southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded with active levels late on 10 Mar, followed by quiet to G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 11-12 Mar. Shortly following, at 13/1007 UTC, an interplanetary shock was observed at the DSCOVR spacecraft followed by a 33 nT geomagnetic sudden impulse at 13/1052 UTC (Wingst magnetometer) as the 10 Mar CME began to impact the geomagnetic field. Solar wind speed initially increased to 603 km/s at 13/1034 UTC, but then quickly subsided to between 430-500 km/s. Total field increased to a maximum of 25 nT at 13/1744 UTC and remained there through the end of the period. Southward deflections of the Bz component to near -24 nT were also observed. The geomagnetic field responded with active to G2 (Moderate) storm conditions on 13 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 March - 09 April 2022
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares on 14-23 Mar due to potential flare activity from Region 2965. Very low to low activity is expected thereafter.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Mar due to CME influence. High levels are expected once again on 02-06 Apr due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 14 Mar followed by unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 15 Mar as activity from the 10 Mar CME persists. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 20-22 Mar,
26-27 Mar, and 31 Mar-03 Apr with G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 01 Apr due to recurrent CH HSSs.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 14 0554 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-03-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 Mar 14 120 30 6
2022 Mar 15 120 20 5
2022 Mar 16 115 12 3
2022 Mar 17 115 5 2
2022 Mar 18 115 5 2
2022 Mar 19 115 5 2
2022 Mar 20 115 15 4
2022 Mar 21 110 15 4
2022 Mar 22 100 8 3
2022 Mar 23 95 5 2
2022 Mar 24 95 5 2
2022 Mar 25 95 5 2
2022 Mar 26 95 10 3
2022 Mar 27 100 8 3
2022 Mar 28 100 5 2
2022 Mar 29 110 5 2
2022 Mar 30 110 5 2
2022 Mar 31 115 10 3
2022 Apr 01 120 25 5
2022 Apr 02 115 15 4
2022 Apr 03 120 8 3
2022 Apr 04 115 5 2
2022 Apr 05 115 5 2
2022 Apr 06 125 5 2
2022 Apr 07 125 5 2
2022 Apr 08 125 5 2
2022 Apr 09 120 5 2
(NOAA)
