Monday, March 07, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Mar 07 0141 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 February - 06 March 2022

Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels throughout the week. The largest event of the period was an M2/1b flare observed at 02/1739 UTC from Region 2958 (N17, L=035, class/area=Bxo/60 on 03 Mar). Regions 2957 (S16, L=038, class/area=Dai/240 on 05 Mar) and 2960 (S20, L=335, class/area=Dki/450 on 05 Mar) were the most active regions throughout the week but produced only C-flares. Multiple DSFs were detected during the summary period, however, none were expected to
be Earth-directed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 06 Mar, with normal to moderate levels observed throughout the remainder of the week. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached active and minor (G1) storm levels on 05-06 Mar due to the influence of a series of a negative polarity CH HSSs. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the summary period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 March - 02 April 2022

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the period, with C-flares likely and a chance for M-flares. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 07-10, 20-23 Mar, and 02 Apr. Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor (G1) storm levels on 01-02 Apr, and active levels on 11-12, 19-21, and 31 Mar in response to multiple CH HSSs moving through geoeffective position. Quiet and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to
prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Mar 07 0141 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-03-07
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Mar 07     116          10          3
2022 Mar 08     116           5          2
2022 Mar 09     115           5          2
2022 Mar 10     112           5          2
2022 Mar 11     110          15          4
2022 Mar 12     110          18          4
2022 Mar 13     110          10          3
2022 Mar 14     108           5          2
2022 Mar 15     102           5          2
2022 Mar 16      98           5          2
2022 Mar 17      99           5          2
2022 Mar 18     100           8          3
2022 Mar 19     100          12          4
2022 Mar 20     100          12          4
2022 Mar 21     100          15          4
2022 Mar 22     101           7          2
2022 Mar 23     103           7          2
2022 Mar 24     104           7          2
2022 Mar 25     104           5          2
2022 Mar 26     104          10          3
2022 Mar 27     104           8          3
2022 Mar 28     110           5          2
2022 Mar 29     115           5          2
2022 Mar 30     116          10          3
2022 Mar 31     118          12          4
2022 Apr 01     119          25          5
2022 Apr 02     120          20          5
(NOAA)