Monday, October 24, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2022 Oct 24 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 October 2022

Solar activity was at low levels. The spotted regions across the visible disk were either simple or only moderately complex. The result was a peak of C-class X-ray activity with a recorded max of C6.4 from a region around the NW limb. 

Other activity included a filament eruption centered near S28E32 with a subsequent CME signature in the NW beginning at 22/2224 UTC. The CME is unlikely to have an Earth-directed component. Two other filaments erupted, centered near S45E60 around 23/1421 UTC and near S30E90 around 23/1604 UTC in SUVI 304 imagery. Analysis and modeling is ongoing at the time of this writing. No other CMEs observed appeared to have an Earth-directed component. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels on every day except 20 Oct, when it briefly reached high levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels were observed on 22 Oct due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Active levels were observed 23 Oct in response to the subsequent high-speed stream.  Unsettled levels were observed on 20 Oct and 17 Oct due to brief periods of southward Bz. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet levels. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 October - 19 November 2022

Solar activity is expected to be low or very low levels throughout the outlook period. There is a slight chance for M-class activity (R1-R1 Minor-Moderate) on 27 Oct - 10 Nov due to active regions with M-class flare history that are scheduled to return to the visible disk. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high levels. High levels are anticipated on 24 Oct - 28 Oct and 31 Oct - 06 Nov due to multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Moderate levels are likely for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 levels are likely on 24 Oct, 29-30 Oct, 10-11 Nov, and 18-19 Nov; active levels are likely on 25 Oct, 31 Oct - 02 Nov, and 12 Nov; unsettled levels are likely on 28 Oct. All elevated levels of geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Oct 24 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-10-24
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Oct 24     104          17          5
2022 Oct 25     100          12          4
2022 Oct 26     100           5          2
2022 Oct 27     100           5          2
2022 Oct 28      98           8          3
2022 Oct 29      98          15          5
2022 Oct 30     100          20          5
2022 Oct 31     105          15          4
2022 Nov 01     105          15          4
2022 Nov 02     110          12          4
2022 Nov 03     112           5          2
2022 Nov 04     112           5          2
2022 Nov 05     112           5          2
2022 Nov 06     118           5          2
2022 Nov 07     118           5          2
2022 Nov 08     118           5          2
2022 Nov 09     118           5          2
2022 Nov 10     115          18          5
2022 Nov 11     115          18          5
2022 Nov 12     115          15          4
2022 Nov 13     112           5          2
2022 Nov 14     112           5          2
2022 Nov 15     110           5          2
2022 Nov 16     108           5          2
2022 Nov 17     108           5          2
2022 Nov 18     108          25          5
2022 Nov 19     108          18          5
(NOAA)