.jpg)
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Mar 06 0303 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 February - 05 March 2023
Solar activity reached very high levels this week. In total, one R3 (Strong) event, three R2 (Moderate) events, and eight R1 (Minor) events were observed. The largest event of the period was an X2/1b flare at 03/1752 UTC from Region 3234 (N25, L=346, class/area=Fkc/860 on 28 Feb). Region 3234 was the most active sunspot region throughout the week, and in addition to the X-flare, 3234 also produced an M8 flare at 28/1750 UTC, an M5 flare at 04/1557 UTC, an M3 flare at 02/2116 UTC, and an M3/1f flare at 03/1032 UTC. Region 3243 (N18, L=306, class/area=Dao/110 on 05 Mar) produced an M5 flare at 05/2136 UTC and an M1/Sn flare at 04/0710 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs resulted from this periods flare activity.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate on 27 Feb, and high on 28 Feb-05 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity reached G3 (Strong) storm levels on 27 Feb, and G2 (Moderate) levels on 28 Feb, due to a combination of CME effects (25 Feb CME) and negative polarity CH HSS influences. Negative polarity CH HSS influences persisted over 01-05 Mar, with quiet to unsettled levels observed on 01 Mar and active conditions registered on 02-05 Mar.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 March - 01 April 2023
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate to high levels throughout the outlook period. Multiple recurrent active regions with significant flare histories are expected to transit the solar disk this period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 06-13 Mar and 27 Mar-01 Apr. Normal to moderate levels are expected over 14-26 Mar.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 06, 26, and 30 Mar and active levels on 07, 15, 20, 25, 27, 31 Mar, and 01 Apr, in response to multiple recurrent CH HSS features. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to persist throughout the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Mar 06 0303 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-03-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 Mar 06 185 20 5
2023 Mar 07 190 16 4
2023 Mar 08 200 8 3
2023 Mar 09 200 5 2
2023 Mar 10 195 5 2
2023 Mar 11 190 5 2
2023 Mar 12 185 5 2
2023 Mar 13 180 5 2
2023 Mar 14 175 5 2
2023 Mar 15 170 16 4
2023 Mar 16 175 8 3
2023 Mar 17 175 8 3
2023 Mar 18 180 5 2
2023 Mar 19 180 8 3
2023 Mar 20 175 16 4
2023 Mar 21 170 5 2
2023 Mar 22 170 5 2
2023 Mar 23 170 5 2
2023 Mar 24 175 12 3
2023 Mar 25 175 16 4
2023 Mar 26 180 26 5
2023 Mar 27 185 18 4
2023 Mar 28 185 10 3
2023 Mar 29 190 8 3
2023 Mar 30 185 24 5
2023 Mar 31 185 16 4
2023 Apr 01 185 20 4
(NOAA)
