Monday, June 12, 2023

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 Jun 12 0122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 June 2023

Solar activity was moderate. There were two M-class flares during the period. The largest event was an M4.7 flare (R1-Minor) at 07/1146 UTC from Region 3327 (S14, L=052, class/area = Dki/300 on 06 June). Region 3331 (N18, L=066, class/area = Dro/20 on 07 June) produced an M2.5 flare (R1-Minor) at 09/1711 UTC. The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk were either quiet or produced C-class events. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels each day of the highlight period. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled levels were reached on 06, 07, and 11 June. Quiet conditions were observed on 05 and 08-10 June. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 June - 08 July 2023

Solar activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period due to several complex regions currently on the visible disk and the anticipated return of several regions that have produced moderate-level activity currently on the far side of the Sun. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 17-21 June in response to elevated wind speeds from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is anticipated to be at moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active conditions are likely on 12-13, 16, 27-28 June and 09 July with unsettled conditions likely on 17-18 June and 01-02 July due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 Jun 12 0122 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2023-06-12
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2023 Jun 12     155          12          4
2023 Jun 13     157          12          4
2023 Jun 14     153           5          2
2023 Jun 15     160           5          2
2023 Jun 16     150          12          4
2023 Jun 17     150          10          3
2023 Jun 18     150          10          3
2023 Jun 19     155           5          2
2023 Jun 20     155           5          2
2023 Jun 21     160           5          2
2023 Jun 22     165           5          2
2023 Jun 23     170           5          2
2023 Jun 24     170           5          2
2023 Jun 25     170           5          2
2023 Jun 26     168           5          2
2023 Jun 27     165          12          4
2023 Jun 28     162          12          4
2023 Jun 29     160           5          2
2023 Jun 30     160           5          2
2023 Jul 01     160          12          3
2023 Jul 02     160           8          3
2023 Jul 03     160           5          2
2023 Jul 04     160           5          2
2023 Jul 05     165           5          2
2023 Jul 06     170           5          2
2023 Jul 07     170           5          2
2023 Jul 08     170          12          4
(NOAA)