:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Mar 04 0255 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 February - 03 March 2024
Solar activity reached moderate levels on 28 Feb as Region 3590 (N18, L=223, class/area=Fkc/1450 on 25 Feb) produced a long-duration M1.5 (R1-Minor) flare at 28/1854 UTC. A subsequent CME associated with the flare was analyzed and the model results suggested the ejecta was off the Sun-Earth line. A filament eruption, centered near S11E30, was observed starting around 28/0900 UTC. It produced Type II radio sweep along with a C5.1/Sf flare at 28/0909 UTC. A subsequent CME signature in SOHO/LASCO C2. Analysis and modeling of the event suggested arrival late on 03 Mar. The remaining 11 active regions on the visible disk were either quiet or produced only C-class X-ray activity.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. A period of sustained southward Bz, which reached -7 nT, was observed for a few hours on late on 26 Feb and into 27 Feb. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated period of G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. As the solar wind returned to nominal conditions, quiet to unsettled levels followed through 02 Mar. The arrival of a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on 28 Feb was observed just before midday on 03 Mar. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 19 nT and the Bz component was oriented far southward (down to -18 nT). Solar wind speeds remained relatively low with speeds averaging near 350 km/s. The geomagnetic field response reached G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels during the 03/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 March - 30 March 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels are expected on 04 Mar in response to waning influence from a CME that left the Sun on 28 Feb. Unsettled conditions are likely on 10-11 Mar and 28 Mar due to multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Mar 04 0255 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-03-04
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Mar 04 145 14 4
2024 Mar 05 140 5 2
2024 Mar 06 140 5 2
2024 Mar 07 135 5 2
2024 Mar 08 135 5 2
2024 Mar 09 135 5 2
2024 Mar 10 135 8 3
2024 Mar 11 135 8 3
2024 Mar 12 135 5 2
2024 Mar 13 140 5 2
2024 Mar 14 160 5 2
2024 Mar 15 170 5 2
2024 Mar 16 170 5 2
2024 Mar 17 165 5 2
2024 Mar 18 160 5 2
2024 Mar 19 170 5 2
2024 Mar 20 175 5 2
2024 Mar 21 180 5 2
2024 Mar 22 180 5 2
2024 Mar 23 180 5 2
2024 Mar 24 175 5 2
2024 Mar 25 175 5 2
2024 Mar 26 170 5 2
2024 Mar 27 170 5 2
2024 Mar 28 160 10 3
2024 Mar 29 160 8 3
2024 Mar 30 165 5 2
(NOAA)
