Monday, July 14, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jul 14 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 July 2025



Solar activity was ranged from low to moderate levels. R1 (Minor) events were observed on 08-09 Jul and 12 Jul. The largest was an M2.4 flare at 08/0417 UTC from Region 4136 (N19, L=022, class/area=Dai/220 on 11 Jul). Region 4140 (S15, L=348, class/area=Dao/130 on 12 Jul) produced a similarly powerful M2.3/1f
flare at 12/0834 UTC. The other 15 numbered active regions on the visible disk were either quiet or only produced C-class activity. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 09-10 Jul following elevated wind speeds from a coronal hole. The remainder of the summary period was at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was varied from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions were observed early on 07 Jul, with a slow decrease to active levels on 08 Jul and unsettled levels on 09 Jul due to influence from a negative polarity coronal hole. Active conditions were observed on 11 Jul and unsettled
conditions on 12 Jul were in response to the onset of a positive polarity coronal hole. G1 conditions observed on 13 Jul followed a pronounced increase in solar wind speeds from a mildly elevated ~500 km/s on 12 Jul to a peak just over 700 km/s on 13 Jul. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 July - 09 August 2025

Solar activity is likely to be at low levels, with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, over next 27 days due to several complex active regions on the visible disk and the anticipated return of multiple active regions from the Sun's farside. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-28 Jul and 05-06 Aug following activity from recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook is likely to be at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely observed mild elevations, mostly in response to recurrent coronal hole features. Active conditions are likely on 14 Jul, 22-24 Jul, 02-04 Aug, and 07-09 Aug. Unsettled conditions are likely on 15-17 Jul, 25 Jul, and 01 Aug. The remaining days of the outlook period are expected to be
mostly quiet. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 14 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-07-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jul 14     125          12          4
2025 Jul 15     128          10          3
2025 Jul 16     130          10          3
2025 Jul 17     125           8          3
2025 Jul 18     128           5          2
2025 Jul 19     122           5          2
2025 Jul 20     118           5          2
2025 Jul 21     120           5          2
2025 Jul 22     125          12          4
2025 Jul 23     125          20          4
2025 Jul 24     128          18          4
2025 Jul 25     128           8          3
2025 Jul 26     128           5          2
2025 Jul 27     130          10          4
2025 Jul 28     130           5          2
2025 Jul 29     130           5          2
2025 Jul 30     132           5          2
2025 Jul 31     130           5          2
2025 Aug 01     135          15          3
2025 Aug 02     135          20          4
2025 Aug 03     130          18          4
2025 Aug 04     128          12          4
2025 Aug 05     128           5          2
2025 Aug 06     125           5          2
2025 Aug 07     125          20          4
2025 Aug 08     125          15          4
2025 Aug 09     125          12          4
(NOAA)