Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2023 Mar 20 0234 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

#

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 March 2023

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 17 Mar due to an M1/Sn flare (R1 - Minor) at 17/1507 UTC from Region 3247 (S24, L=162, class/area=Cao/100 on 08 Mar). The other 17 numbered active regions on the visible disk only produced low levels of solar activity during the summary period. Other activity included many filament eruptions but only a DSF on ~17/0930 UTC, centered near S40W38, was modeled and thought to have an Earth-directed component. Model output suggested the anticipated onset of the CME to be late on 20 Mar to early on 21 Mar. Lastly, a Type IV radio sweep was observed in conjunction with an impulsive C9/1n 18/0716 UTC flare from Region 3256 (S22, L=004, class/area=Eko/270 on 19 Mar). 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S1 (Minor) levels on 13 Mar. The enhancement was associated with a full-halo CME first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning near 13/0336 UTC. The energetic event was determined to be associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun but still was able to produce significant enhancements in relativistic proton flux on the GOES-16 satellite. S1 conditions were reached again on 14 Mar, with an additional enhancement associated with a shock ahead of a CME that would arrive on 15 Mar that would increase 10 MeV protons back above the S1 threshold to an eventual peak flux of 22 pfu at 15/0425 UTC. After shock passage, the >10 MeV proton flux quickly decreased, with the last observation above the S1 threshold observed at 15/0530 UTC. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate levels over the summary period. 

Geomagnetic field activity range from quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions were observed on 15 Mar in response to influence from a CMEs that left the Sun over 11 and 12 Mar. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased from 8 nT 18 nT during the shock at 15/0347 UTC. With the shock, wind speeds increased from ~425 km/s to ~525 km/s. Bt reached a peak of 24-25 nT shortly after and solar wind speeds were recorded at ~570 km/s before both speeds and Bt underwent a gradual decline. Weaker activity, also associated with transient activity produced active conditions on 14 Mar and 16 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 17-19 Mar and only quiet conditions were observed on 13 Mar. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 March - 15 April 2023

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events. This is due to the flare potential of regions both currently on the visible disk and significant regions expected to return to the visible disk from the far side of the Sun over the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 26-29 Mar and 31 Mar - 06 Apr due to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at

normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 conditions are likely on 25 Mar; G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 26 Mar and 30-31 Mar; active conditions are likely on 20-21 Mar, 01-02 Apr and 10-11 Apr; unsettled conditions are likely on 24 Mar, 27-28 Mar, 03-04 Apr, 12 Apr and 14-15 Apr. With the exception of 20-21 Mar, which is expected to include possible transient influence as well, all anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic conditions are in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt

:Issued: 2023 Mar 20 0234 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services

#

#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

#                Issued 2023-03-20

#

#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest

#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index

2023 Mar 20     143          15          4

2023 Mar 21     140          18          4

2023 Mar 22     140           5          2

2023 Mar 23     142           5          2

2023 Mar 24     142          10          3

2023 Mar 25     142          36          6

2023 Mar 26     144          20          5

2023 Mar 27     146          10          3

2023 Mar 28     146           8          3

2023 Mar 29     142           5          2

2023 Mar 30     140          20          5

2023 Mar 31     138          18          5

2023 Apr 01     138          12          4

2023 Apr 02     136          12          4

2023 Apr 03     136          10          3

2023 Apr 04     134           8          3

2023 Apr 05     132           5          2

2023 Apr 06     132           5          2

2023 Apr 07     132           5          2

2023 Apr 08     130           5          2

2023 Apr 09     130           5          2

2023 Apr 10     132          15          4

2023 Apr 11     135          12          4

2023 Apr 12     138           8          3

2023 Apr 13     140           5          2

2023 Apr 14     142           8          3

2023 Apr 15     142           8          3

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jan 27 0041 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. Region 2757 (N04, L=089, class/area Cao/060 on 26 Jan) produced a single low level B-class flare on 25/0714 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 21-23 Jan and quiet levels throughout the remainder of the period, under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 January - 22 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity from Region 2757.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at moderate levels throughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 29-30 Jan and 03-05 Feb in response to CH HSS influence.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 27 0041 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-01-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jan 27      74           5          2
2020 Jan 28      74           5          2
2020 Jan 29      74          10          3
2020 Jan 30      74          10          3
2020 Jan 31      74           5          2
2020 Feb 01      74           5          2
2020 Feb 02      74           5          2
2020 Feb 03      72           8          3
2020 Feb 04      72           8          3
2020 Feb 05      72           8          3
2020 Feb 06      71           5          2
2020 Feb 07      71           5          2
2020 Feb 08      71           5          2
2020 Feb 09      71           5          2
2020 Feb 10      71           5          2
2020 Feb 11      71           5          2
2020 Feb 12      71           5          2
2020 Feb 13      71           5          2
2020 Feb 14      72           5          2
2020 Feb 15      72           5          2
2020 Feb 16      72           5          2
2020 Feb 17      72           5          2
2020 Feb 18      72           5          2
2020 Feb 19      72           5          2
2020 Feb 20      72           5          2
2020 Feb 21      73           5          2
2020 Feb 22      73           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Nov 11 0043 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 November 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 04-06, 08 Nov and moderate levels on 07, 09-10 Nov.

Geomagnetic field activity reached unsettled levels on 06 Nov and quiet levels throughout the remainder of the period, under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 November - 07 December 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 12-17, 21-30 Nov and 01-03 Dec, with moderate levels on 11, 18-20 Nov and 04-07 Dec, in response to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21-22 Nov, with active levels on 11, 20, 23-24 Nov, due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Nov 11 0043 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-11-11
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Nov 11      70          15          4
2019 Nov 12      70           8          3
2019 Nov 13      70           5          2
2019 Nov 14      70           5          2
2019 Nov 15      70           5          2
2019 Nov 16      70           5          2
2019 Nov 17      70           5          2
2019 Nov 18      70           5          2
2019 Nov 19      70           5          2
2019 Nov 20      70          15          4
2019 Nov 21      70          25          5
2019 Nov 22      71          18          5
2019 Nov 23      71          12          4
2019 Nov 24      71          10          4
2019 Nov 25      71           8          3
2019 Nov 26      71           8          3
2019 Nov 27      71           5          2
2019 Nov 28      71           5          2
2019 Nov 29      71           5          2
2019 Nov 30      71           5          2
2019 Dec 01      71           5          2
2019 Dec 02      71           5          2
2019 Dec 03      71           5          2
2019 Dec 04      70           5          2
2019 Dec 05      70           5          2
2019 Dec 06      70           5          2
2019 Dec 07      70           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Oct 21 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 October 2019

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels on 14-15 Oct and again on 17-20 Oct with a peak flux of 777 pfu observed at 14/1500 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed was mostly in the 300-400 km/s range but increased to 400-440 km/s on 16-17 Oct. Total field ranged from 1-8 nT. The geomagnetic field responded with mostly quiet conditions with
isolated unsettled periods on 15 and 20 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 October - 16 November 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 24 Oct, 04-11 Nov, and again on 13-16 Nov. High levels are expected on 25 Oct-03 Nov due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 21-22 Oct and 24-29 Oct with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 24-25 Oct due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Oct 21 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services 
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-10-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Oct 21      66          12          4
2019 Oct 22      66           8          3
2019 Oct 23      66           5          2
2019 Oct 24      66          20          5
2019 Oct 25      66          25          5
2019 Oct 26      66          15          4
2019 Oct 27      66          15          4
2019 Oct 28      66          12          4
2019 Oct 29      66           8          3
2019 Oct 30      66           5          2
2019 Oct 31      66           5          2
2019 Nov 01      66           5          2
2019 Nov 02      66           5          2
2019 Nov 03      66           5          2
2019 Nov 04      66           5          2
2019 Nov 05      66           5          2
2019 Nov 06      66           5          2
2019 Nov 07      66           5          2
2019 Nov 08      66           5          2
2019 Nov 09      66           5          2
2019 Nov 10      66           5          2
2019 Nov 11      66           5          2
2019 Nov 12      66           5          2
2019 Nov 13      66           5          2
2019 Nov 14      66           5          2
2019 Nov 15      66           5          2
2019 Nov 16      66           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Aug 28 0402 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 August 2017

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Very low levels were observed on 26 Aug while low levels were observed from 21-25 Aug and again on 27 Aug. Regions 2671 (N11, L=305, class/area Fkc/430 on 21 Aug) and 2672 (N08, L=227, class/area Dao/270 on 22 Aug) were the only regions on the visible disk and were responsible for a total of 34 C-class flares between the two. The largest events of the period were a C6/1f at 27/1516 UTC from Region 2671, a C5/Sf at 21/0316 UTC from Region 2672, and another C5/1n at 25/0727 UTC with an associated 100 sfu Tenflare from Region 2672. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed during
the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 22-27 Aug while very high levels were observed on 21 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 52,010 pfu observed at 21/1725 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels. The period began under the waning influence of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speed was decreasing from approximately 700 km/s to around 580 km/s by late on 21 Aug with total field values near 4 nT. By approximately 21/2100 UTC, total field began to increase to 9 nT while the Bz component deflected southward briefly to -8 nT. Solar wind speed increased once again to near 675 km/s at 22/0655 UTC before slowly decreasing once more. A prolonged period of southward Bz was observed between 22/1840-24/1310 UTC reaching a maximum of -6 nT.
The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled levels on 21 Aug, quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 22 Aug, and unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 23 Aug. Solar wind speed continued to decline to around 330 km/s by early on 25 Aug. Another enhancement in total field was observed at the end of the period to 10 nT with another prolonged period of southward Bz after 27/1200 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to
unsettled conditions on 24 and 27 Aug while quiet conditions were observed on 25-26 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 August - 23 September 2017

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the forecast period. There is a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares from 28 Aug-02 Sep as Region 2672
transits across the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at mostly high levels throughout the forecast period due to recurrent CH HSS influence. A decrease to moderate levels is
expected on 30-31 Aug, 08 Sep, and again on 13 Sep due to electron redistribution associated with the arrival of the CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on 28 Aug, 30 Aug-02 Sep, 08-09 Sep, 13-17 Sep, and 23 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 31 Aug and 13-16 Sep and G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 14-15 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity.


Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Aug 28 0402 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-08-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Aug 28      78          10          3
2017 Aug 29      78           8          3
2017 Aug 30      78          15          4
2017 Aug 31      77          25          5
2017 Sep 01      75          18          4
2017 Sep 02      74          15          3
2017 Sep 03      74           8          3
2017 Sep 04      72           5          2
2017 Sep 05      72           5          2
2017 Sep 06      72           5          2
2017 Sep 07      75           5          2
2017 Sep 08      80          10          3
2017 Sep 09      85           8          3
2017 Sep 10      85           5          2
2017 Sep 11      85           5          2
2017 Sep 12      85           5          2
2017 Sep 13      85          25          5
2017 Sep 14      85          30          6
2017 Sep 15      88          30          6
2017 Sep 16      88          25          5
2017 Sep 17      88          12          4
2017 Sep 18      88           8          3
2017 Sep 19      85           8          3
2017 Sep 20      85           5          2
2017 Sep 21      82           5          2
2017 Sep 22      80           5          2
2017 Sep 23      78          10          3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Aug 14 0316 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 August 2017

Solar activity was very low. Region 2670 (S05, L=119, class/area  Cso/160 on 02 Aug) continued it transit across the visible disk during the period as a simple Hsx/alpha spot group with no flaring
activity observed. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels from 07-11 Aug with a peak flux of 11,301 pfu observed at 07/1440 UTC. Electron flux values decreased to normal to moderate levels on 12-13 Aug due to the arrival of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels during the period. Solar wind speed was in decline at the beginning of the period from a waning positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind
speeds declined from near 570 km/s early in the period to nominal levels by late on 08 Aug. Total field ranged from 2-6 nT through 10 Aug. On 11 Aug, total field and solar wind began to increase as a negative polarity CH HSS became geo effective. Total field increased to a maximum of 12 nT at 12/0135 UTC while solar wind increased to around 650 km/s by 13/1750 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels from 07-10 Aug and quiet to unsettled levels from 11-12
Aug. Geomagnetic activity decreased to quiet levels again on 13 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 August - 09 September 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. A chance for C-class flare activity is possible from 14-28 Aug as a new active region rotates across the visible disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels from 14-16, 18-30 Aug and again from 01-07 Sep due to CH HSS influence. Normal to moderate levels are
expected on 17, 31 Aug and again on 08-09 Sep. Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled to active levels on 14, 16-22, 30-31 Aug and from 01-02 and 08-09 Sep with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 17-18 and 31Aug due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Aug 14 0316 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2017-08-14
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2017 Aug 14      68           8          3
2017 Aug 15      68           5          2
2017 Aug 16      68          10          3
2017 Aug 17      68          20          5
2017 Aug 18      68          25          5
2017 Aug 19      68          15          4
2017 Aug 20      68          12          4
2017 Aug 21      68          10          3
2017 Aug 22      68           8          3
2017 Aug 23      68           6          2
2017 Aug 24      68           5          2
2017 Aug 25      68           5          2
2017 Aug 26      68           5          2
2017 Aug 27      68           5          2
2017 Aug 28      68           5          2
2017 Aug 29      70           5          2
2017 Aug 30      72          12          4
2017 Aug 31      72          24          5
2017 Sep 01      72          18          4
2017 Sep 02      72          14          4
2017 Sep 03      72           5          2
2017 Sep 04      72           5          2
2017 Sep 05      72           5          2
2017 Sep 06      72           5          2
2017 Sep 07      72           5          2
2017 Sep 08      72          10          3
2017 Sep 09      70           8          3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Dec 26 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 December - 21 January 2017
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels throughout the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels from 26-29 Dec, 31 Dec-02 Jan, 04-13
Jan, and 18-21 Jan due to multiple CH HSS influences; normal to moderate levels are expected on 30 Dec, 03 Jan, and 14-17 Jan.  Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) levels on 26 Dec due to CH HSS influences. G1 (Minor) conditions are also likely on 04-05 Jan and 17-19 Jan. Active conditions are likely on 30 Dec, 06-07 Jan, and 20-21 Jan. Unsettled conditions are likely on 31 Dec, 02-03 Jan, 08 Jan, and 14 Jan. All anticipated enhancements in field activity are due to recurrent CH HSSs. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Dec 26 0416 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-12-26
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Dec 26      73          12          3
2016 Dec 27      73           5          2
2016 Dec 28      75           5          2
2016 Dec 29      75           5          2
2016 Dec 30      75          15          4
2016 Dec 31      75          10          3
2017 Jan 01      77           5          2
2017 Jan 02      77           8          3
2017 Jan 03      77          10          3
2017 Jan 04      77          20          5
2017 Jan 05      77          22          5
2017 Jan 06      79          16          4
2017 Jan 07      79          14          4
2017 Jan 08      79           6          3
2017 Jan 09      79           5          2
2017 Jan 10      77           5          2
2017 Jan 11      77           5          2
2017 Jan 12      77           5          2
2017 Jan 13      77           5          2
2017 Jan 14      75          10          3
2017 Jan 15      75           5          2
2017 Jan 16      75           5          2
2017 Jan 17      75          25          5
2017 Jan 18      75          20          5
2017 Jan 19      75          25          5
2017 Jan 20      73          18          4
2017 Jan 21      73          18          4
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2014 Jan 27 0540 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 January 2014

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. The week began with five C-class events on 20 January, four of which were produced by Region 1959 (S24, L=239, class/area Eai/220 on 21 January). The largest flare of that day, and the first six days of the period, however, was a C3/Sf produced by Region 1963 (S06, L=216, class/area Cso/060 on 21 January) at 20/2249 UTC. From 21-25 January, only five C1 to C2 class flares were observed while very low levels were observed on 23 January. January 26th brought an increase in activity when a C6 event was observed at 26/1013 UTC from Region 1960 (S15, L=238, class/area Hkx/270 on 22 January). A C3 x-ray event was observed earlier at 26/0616 UTC from behind the NE limb and shortly after, a C1 x-ray event was observed at 26/0838 UTC from behind the SE limb. Associated with the C1 event were Type II (839 km/s) and 10cm (200 sfu) radio signatures. The activity from behind the east limb appeared to originate in the vicinity of old Regions 1946 (N09, L=103) and 1944 (S09, L=101). 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. Moderate levels were observed on 20 January. 

The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The period began with solar wind speeds near 300 km/s and total field measurements around 4 nT. Subsequently, the geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 20 January. By 21 January, total field began to increase to a maximum of 487 km/s while the Bz component fluctuated between +/- 6 nT. Solar wind speed increased to a maximum of 605 km/s at 22/0846 UTC as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to unsettled conditions on 21 and 22 January. Solar wind speed declined to background levels by 24 January resulting in mostly quiet conditions with isolated unsettled levels from 23 January through the end of the period. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 January - 22 February 2014

Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels overall. Moderate to high levels are possible from 27 January through 09 February with the return of old Regions 1946 and 1944. 

The greater than 10 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels during the forecast period. The threat of a solar energetic particle event is expected to be greatest between 03-10 February as old Region 1944 crosses the central meridian into a more potentially geoeffective position. 

The greater than 2 MeV particle flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at low to moderate levels through most of the period, with the exception of 03-05 February when a chance for high levels are expected due to recurrence. 

The geomagnetic field is expected to begin the period at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for active periods on 27-28 January, in response to a small coronal hole high speed stream. By 29 January, a return to mostly quiet conditions is expected. Recurrent high speed solar wind streams are expected to bring unsettled conditions with a chance for active levels on 07-08 February and
17-18 February. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period in the absence of transient features. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jan 27 0540 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2014-01-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2014 Jan 27     140           8          3
2014 Jan 28     155          12          4
2014 Jan 29     160           5          2
2014 Jan 30     180           5          2
2014 Jan 31     200           5          2
2014 Feb 01     205           5          2
2014 Feb 02     205           5          2
2014 Feb 03     205           5          2
2014 Feb 04     200           5          2
2014 Feb 05     200           5          2
2014 Feb 06     200           5          2
2014 Feb 07     200           8          3
2014 Feb 08     180           8          3
2014 Feb 09     170           5          2
2014 Feb 10     150           5          2
2014 Feb 11     130           5          2
2014 Feb 12     130           5          2
2014 Feb 13     125           5          2
2014 Feb 14     125           5          2
2014 Feb 15     125           5          2
2014 Feb 16     130           5          2
2014 Feb 17     130           8          3
2014 Feb 18     135           8          3
2014 Feb 19     135           5          2
2014 Feb 20     135           5          2
2014 Feb 21     135           5          2
2014 Feb 22     135           5          2

(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Aug 19 0357 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 August 2013

Solar activity was moderate. The week began at moderate levels with Region 1817 (S21, L=241 class/area Ekc/260 on 15 Aug) producing an M1/Sn event at 12/1041 UTC. Activity was at low levels from 13 - 16 Aug with the largest event being a C4 at 14/0031 UTC from Region 1809 (N13, L=339). A Type II radio sweep (est. speed 1019 km/s) was observed on 15 Aug associated with a C2/Sf at 15/2216 UTC from Region 1817. There was an associated coronal mass ejection (CME) but it was determined to be directed well south of the ecliptic plane. Acitivty increased to moderate levels on 17 Aug with a pair of M flares from Region 1818 (S07, L=216 class/area Dki/330 on 16 Aug).

The first event was an impulsive M3/2b at 17/1824 UTC with associated weak, multi-frequency radio emissions. Immediately following the M3, Region 1818 produced an M1 x-ray event at 17/1933 UTC, again associated with weak, multi-frequency radio emissions including a 150 sfu Tenflare, a Type II radio sweep (est. speed 1399 km/s) observed in the lower spectral range and a broader spectral range Type IV radio sweep. An associated partial-halo CME was observed off the southwest limb and is expected to be a glancing blow at Earth on 21 Aug. 

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly elevated following the M-flare activity on 17 Aug but remained well below alert threshold. 

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 12 - 15 Aug followed by an increase to moderate to high levels from 16 - 18 Aug due to effects from a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). 

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels to begin the period on 12 Aug. Activity increased to unsettled to active conditions on 13 Aug due to the onset of a geo effective CH HSS. Although the CH HSS was still apparent on 14 Aug, quiet to unsettled conditions were predominate. A return to unsettled to active conditions returned on 15 - 16 Aug due to continued CH HSS effects, with an isolated minor storm period observed during the 0300 - 0600 UTC synoptic period due to nighttime sub-storming. Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 17 - 18 Aug as CH HSS effects subsided. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 August - 14 September 2013

Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class activity from 19 - 21 Aug, mainly from Region 1818. Predominately low levels are expected from 22 Aug until the return of Regions 1817 and 1818 around 02 Sep, at which time the chance for M-class activity will return for the remainder of the period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels from 19 - 28 Aug due to CH HSS effects. A decrease to normal to moderate levels is expected from 29 Aug - 02 Sep as CH HSS effects subside followed by an increase to moderate to high levels from 03 - 08 Sep due to the effects of another CH HSS. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 09 - 12 Sep. Moderate to high levels are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period following the arrival of another recurrent CH HSS. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled from 19 Aug until late 20 Aug followed by unsettled to active conditions as a recurrent, equatorial, positive CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position. Unsettled to active conditions with a slight chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected on 21 Aug due to continued CH HSS effects coupled with possible CME effects from the 17 Aug event. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 22 Aug as CH HSS and CME effects wane. Predominately quiet conditions are expected from 23 - 30 Aug. A second CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 31 Aug, bringing activity up to quiet to unsettled levels until 02 Sep. Quiet conditions are expected to return 03 - 04 Sep followed by another small CH HSS that is expected to generate some isolated unsettled periods from 05 - 06 Sep. Quiet to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods are expected for the remainder of the period due to the arrival of another recurrent CH HSS with a history of more intense geomagnetic effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Aug 19 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table - Issued 2013-08-19
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Aug 19     130           5          2
2013 Aug 20     125          15          4
2013 Aug 21     120          22          4
2013 Aug 22     115          12          4
2013 Aug 23     110           8          3
2013 Aug 24     105           5          2
2013 Aug 25     105           5          2
2013 Aug 26     105           5          2
2013 Aug 27     105           5          2
2013 Aug 28     100           5          2
2013 Aug 29     100           5          2
2013 Aug 30     100           5          2
2013 Aug 31      95          12          3
2013 Sep 01      95          15          4
2013 Sep 02     100          10          3
2013 Sep 03     105           5          2
2013 Sep 04     105           5          2
2013 Sep 05     110           8          3
2013 Sep 06     110           5          2
2013 Sep 07     110           5          2
2013 Sep 08     110           5          2
2013 Sep 09     115           5          2
2013 Sep 10     115          10          3
2013 Sep 11     115          15          4
2013 Sep 12     120          18          4
2013 Sep 13     120           8          3
2013 Sep 14     125           8          3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletin

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2013 Jan 28 0352 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 January 2013

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past week. At the beginning of the summary period, Region 1654 (N08, L=151 Class/Area Fki/1100 on 11 Jan) rotated off the west limb without producing any major activity. Region 1660 (N13, L=065 Class/area Dao/220 on 25 Jan) was the only other region of magnetic complexity on the visible disk. However, very little activity was attributed to Region 1660. The remaining regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. A couple of non-Earth directed CMEs were observed during the period. On 23 January, a large filament eruption was observed off the northeast quadrant of the visible disk. LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A/B COR2 imagery supported an associated CME with this event. SWPC forecaster analysis and WSA-Enlil models runs indicated this event was Earth directed, however very little affects would be observed
upon arrival.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels during the summary period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels from 21 -25 January. On 26 January, solar wind measurements from the ACE spacecraft indicated the arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS), preceded by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR). The ACE measurements showed and small increase in solar wind density, followed by an increase in solar wind speed, accompanied by an enhancement in the total interplanetary magnetic field. In response to these changes, quiet to active levels were observed. As effects from the CH HSS waned, a return to quiet levels was observed on 27 January. An instrument on the ACE spacecraft called the EPAM, used to monitor energetic protons and electrons in the solar wind, indicated the possible arrival of the 23 January CME late on 26 January. Due to the arrival of the CH HSS, it was hard to discern which effects can be attributed to the CH HSS and which can be attributed to the CME.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 January - 23 February 2013

Solar activity is expected to be very low levels with the possibility of C-class events for the entire forecast period. Even though several of the returning regions show magnetic complexity, very little data has indicated increases in activity while these regions rotate around the far side of the disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be normal to high levels on 28-30 January and 11-12 February in response to CH HSS effects. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the entire forecast period, except for 09-10 February and 22-23 February. Quiet to active levels are expected on these days in response to CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2013 Jan 28 0352 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2013-01-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2013 Jan 28      95           8          3
2013 Jan 29      95           5          2
2013 Jan 30     110           5          2
2013 Jan 31     125           5          2
2013 Feb 01     125           5          2
2013 Feb 02     125           5          2
2013 Feb 03     130           5          2
2013 Feb 04     140           5          2
2013 Feb 05     140           5          2
2013 Feb 06     135           5          2
2013 Feb 07     135           5          2
2013 Feb 08     130           5          2
2013 Feb 09     125           8          3
2013 Feb 10     120           8          3
2013 Feb 11     120           5          2
2013 Feb 12     115           5          2
2013 Feb 13     110           5          2
2013 Feb 14     105           5          2
2013 Feb 15     105           5          2
2013 Feb 16     110           5          2
2013 Feb 17     110           5          2
2013 Feb 18     110           5          2
2013 Feb 19     105           5          2
2013 Feb 20     105           5          2
2013 Feb 21     105           5          2
2013 Feb 22     105          15          4
2013 Feb 23     105          10          3
(NOAA)

Radio Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 August - 04 September 2011

Solar activity began the week at low levels with 27 C-class flares between 09 August - 03 September and ended at moderate levels with an M3 flare at 04/1145 UTC from Region 1286 (N20, L=304, class/area Dso/080 on 03 September). The M3 event was associated with a partial-halo coronal mass ejection which was directed away from the west limb. Although Region 1282 (N25, L=300, class/area Eso/170) did not produce any significant activity during the period, it did develop a delta magnetic configuration on 03 September. Region 1283 (N14, L=223, class/area Dsi/220) developed into the largest spot group during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was atnormal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity began the week at generally quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active and minor storm periods at high latitudes due to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity decreased to mostly quiet levels for 30 August - 02 September. A tivity increased to quiet to unsettled levels with isolated acti e periods at high latitudes for 03 - 04 September. An isolated major storm period occurred at high latitudes during 03/0900 - 1200 UTC. Solar wind data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing on 02 September at about 1000 UTC, and a co-rotating interaction region on 03 September at about 0100 UTC followed by a negative polarity CH HSS.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 September - 03 October 2011

Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class activity likely and a slight chance for X-class activity through 11 September when Region 1283 rotates off the disk. A decrease to very low to low levels is expected from 12 - 17 September. An increase to low to moderate levels is expected as old Regions 1286 and 1283 return and transit the disk from 18 September through the remainder of the forecast period.

A slight chance for proton events is expected at geosynchronous orbit until 12 September.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels 07 - 08 September, followed by normal to moderate levels for 09 - 12 September. High levels are expected 13 - 14 September, followed by another decrease to normal to moderate levels for 15 - 8 September. High levels resume 29 - 30 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected 01 - 03 October.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 09 September. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels 10 - 13 September with the arrival of a coronal mass ejection coupled with a CH HSS. Mostly quiet levels will prevail from 14 - 29 September. An increase to unsettled is expected 30 September - 01 October due to another recurrent CH HSS. Quiet levels will predominate for 02 - 03 October.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Sep 06 2004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-09-06
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Sep 07 115 5 2
2011 Sep 08 110 5 2
2011 Sep 09 105 5 2
2011 Sep 10 100 18 4
2011 Sep 11 100 15 3
2011 Sep 12 100 10 3
2011 Sep 13 100 8 3
2011 Sep 14 100 5 2
2011 Sep 15 100 5 2
2011 Sep 16 103 5 2
2011 Sep 17 103 5 2
2011 Sep 18 105 7 2
2011 Sep 19 105 7 2
2011 Sep 20 105 5 2
2011 Sep 21 105 5 2
2011 Sep 22 105 5 2
2011 Sep 23 103 5 2
2011 Sep 24 100 7 2
2011 Sep 25 100 7 2
2011 Sep 26 100 5 2
2011 Sep 27 105 5 2
2011 Sep 28 110 5 2
2011 Sep 29 110 5 2
2011 Sep 30 110 10 3
2011 Oct 01 110 8 3
2011 Oct 02 110 5 2
2011 Oct 03 110 5 2
(NOAA)