Showing posts with label NOAA< Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NOAA< Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins. Show all posts

Monday, July 21, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Jul 21 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact # www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 - 20 July 2025

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C7.6 from Region 4136 (N20, L=17, class/area=Cao/210 on 20 Jul) at 20/0741 UTC. C-class activity was also observed from several other regiond during the highlight period. No Earth-directed CME activity was observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 14-20 Jul in response to persistent positive polarity CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 14, 15, and 17 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speeds were elevated to as high as 700 km/s on 15 and 17 Jul. The remaining days were at quiet to active levels despite enhanced solar wind parameters. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 July - 16 August 2025

Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor to Moderate) flares for the outlook period. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 21-22 Jul, 24-30 Jul, 5-6 Aug, and 10-16 Aug all due to recurrent CH HSS influences. Low to moderate levels are expected on the remaining days. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 23 Jul, 1-4 Aug and, 7-14 Aug due to recurrent CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on the remaining days of the outlook peirod. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Jul 21 0208 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-07-21
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Jul 21     145           5          2
2025 Jul 22     140           5          2
2025 Jul 23     140          15          4
2025 Jul 24     142          10          3
2025 Jul 25     138           5          2
2025 Jul 26     135           5          2
2025 Jul 27     135           5          2
2025 Jul 28     130           5          2
2025 Jul 29     130           5          2
2025 Jul 30     130           5          2
2025 Jul 31     130           5          2
2025 Aug 01     130          15          4
2025 Aug 02     130          20          5
2025 Aug 03     125          18          4
2025 Aug 04     128          12          4
2025 Aug 05     130           5          2
2025 Aug 06     132           5          2
2025 Aug 07     138          20          4
2025 Aug 08     140          15          4
2025 Aug 09     138          25          5
2025 Aug 10     135          18          4
2025 Aug 11     135          25          5
2025 Aug 12     130          18          4
2025 Aug 13     130          20          5
2025 Aug 14     130          12          4
2025 Aug 15     125           8          3
2025 Aug 16     130           5          2
(NOAA)

Monday, April 28, 2025

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2025 Apr 28 0054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 21 - 27 April 2025

Solar activity reached moderate levels on 21 and 22 Apr due to M-class flare activity. Region 4062 (S03, L=69, class/area=Dki/300 on 18 Apr) produced an M1.9 flare at 21/1837 UTC and Region 4065 (S29, L=42, class/area=Dso/80 on 20 Apr) produced an M1.3 at 22/1049 UTC. Low levels were observed throughout the remainder of the period. No Earth-directed CMEs resulted from this week&#39;s activity. 



No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 27 Apr, while normal to moderate levels prevailed throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21 Apr, and active levels on 22 Apr, due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Active conditions were observed again on 24 Apr due to a prolonged bout of southward IMF. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels were observed throughout the remainder of the week. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 April - 24 May 2025

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low through the outlook period with a varying chance for M-class flare activity. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to reach high levels on 28-30 Apr and 03-12 May. Normal to moderate levels are likely to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm  levels on 05-06 May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences, and again on 18 May due to positive polarity CH HSS influences. Periods of active conditions are likely on 28 Apr, 02, 07-10, and 16-17 May in response to CH HSS influences. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2025 Apr 28 0054 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2025-04-28
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2025 Apr 28     150          10          4
2025 Apr 29     145           8          3
2025 Apr 30     140           5          2
2025 May 01     140           5          2
2025 May 02     140          12          4
2025 May 03     140          10          3
2025 May 04     140           8          3
2025 May 05     150          18          5
2025 May 06     160          18          5
2025 May 07     160          15          4
2025 May 08     165          15          4
2025 May 09     165          15          4
2025 May 10     165          15          4
2025 May 11     160          10          3
2025 May 12     155           5          2
2025 May 13     155           5          2
2025 May 14     155           5          2
2025 May 15     155           5          2
2025 May 16     155          12          4
2025 May 17     155          12          4
2025 May 18     155          25          5
2025 May 19     155          10          3
2025 May 20     155           8          3
2025 May 21     160           8          3
2025 May 22     160           6          2
2025 May 23     160           6          2
2025 May 24     155           6          2
(NOAA)