Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Aug 24 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 August 2010
Solar activity was at low levels for 16 August with Region 1099 (N17, L=345, class/area Bxo/060 on 16 August) producing several B-class flares and a C1 flare. New Region 1100 (S24, L=202, class/area Axx/010 on 16 August) was numbered on 16 August and remained a
single spotted alpha magnetic configuration until it went spotless on 21 August. Solar activity was at very low levels for 17 August. Low levels returned on 18 August due to a long-duration (LDE) C4 flare at 18/0548Z from Region 1099. This event had an associated Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 545 km/s), a partial-halo CME at 18/0600Z observed by SOHO C3 imagery, and a weak enhancement (peak of 4.1 pfu) of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux observed on the GOES 13 spacecraft. Solar activity returned to very low conditions for 19 August for the remainder of the period.

The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced midday on 18 August in response to the LDE observed on the 18th. The enhancement reached a peak of 4.1 pfu at 18/1310Z.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 16 August. Normal to moderate flux levels occurred during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels for the summary period except for 16 and 18 August when activity was at quiet to unsettled conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 August - 20 September 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Very low to low levels are expected on 31 August through the remainder of the forecast when Regions 1093 and 1099 return to the front of the solar disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 25 August to 12 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period (13-20 September).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active condition for 25-26 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 27-28 August, becoming quiet conditions on 29 August as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels should prevail for the remainder of the forecast period until 20 September when quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due to the recurrent CH HSS.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 24 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Aug 24
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Aug 25 75 20 4
2010 Aug 26 75 15 3
2010 Aug 27 75 8 3
2010 Aug 28 74 8 3
2010 Aug 29 74 5 2
2010 Aug 30 73 5 2
2010 Aug 31 75 5 2
2010 Sep 01 80 5 2
2010 Sep 02 80 5 2
2010 Sep 03 85 5 2
2010 Sep 04 85 5 2
2010 Sep 05 85 5 2
2010 Sep 06 84 5 2
2010 Sep 07 84 5 2
2010 Sep 08 84 5 2
2010 Sep 09 82 5 2
2010 Sep 10 82 5 2
2010 Sep 11 82 5 2
2010 Sep 12 80 5 2
2010 Sep 13 80 5 2
2010 Sep 14 75 5 2
2010 Sep 15 75 5 2
2010 Sep 16 75 5 2
2010 Sep 17 75 5 2
2010 Sep 18 75 5 2
2010 Sep 19 75 8 3
2010 Sep 20 75 12 3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:

Issued: 2010 Jun 22 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
14 - 20 June 2010

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels during the period. Activity was at low levels on 14 June, due to a C1/SF flare at 14/0051 UTC from Region 1081 (N25, L=101, class/area Bxo/010, on 14 June). Activity decreased to very low levels for the remainder of the period (15-20 June) with Region 1082 (N27, L=306, class/area Dso/030, on 20 June) producing a B5/SF flare at 17/1033 UTC.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels during 14-16 June. Flux levels increased to high levels during 17-20 June.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels, with minor and major storms at high latitudes. On 14 June, the geomagnetic field was at quiet levels, with isolated unsettled levels at high latitudes. Activity increased to quiet to active levels, with minor and major storm levels occurring on 15-16 June. Activity decreased on 17 June, with quiet to unsettled levels and an isolated major storm period at high latitudes between 17/06-09 UTC. The disturbances during 15-17 June were associated with a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). During this period, solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated wind speeds at 602 km/s at 16/0825 UTC, with increased IMF total field intensity of 12 nT at 15/1228 UTC, with intervals of southward IMF Bz to -9 nT at 16/0126 UTC, and increased density to 22 p/cc at 15/0742 UTC. The geomagnetic field decreased to quiet levels for the remainder of the period, 18-20 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 June - 19 July 2010

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels for most of the forecast period due to recurrent high speed streams with the exception of 23-25 June and 11-13 July when the background is expected to decrease to normal levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during 23-24 June. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at mid-latitudes and isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes, are expected during 25 June - 01 July, due to a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to predominantly quiet levels from 02-11 June. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels, on 12 -14 July, due to another recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder of the forecast period, 15-19 July.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Jun 22 2151 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table

Issued 2010 Jun 22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Jun 23 72 5 2
2010 Jun 24 75 5 2
2010 Jun 25 75 5 2
2010 Jun 26 75 15 3
2010 Jun 27 75 12 3
2010 Jun 28 75 10 3
2010 Jun 29 75 8 3
2010 Jun 30 75 8 3
2010 Jul 01 72 8 3
2010 Jul 02 72 5 2
2010 Jul 03 72 5 2
2010 Jul 04 72 5 2
2010 Jul 05 72 5 2
2010 Jul 06 72 5 2
2010 Jul 07 72 5 2
2010 Jul 08 72 5 2
2010 Jul 09 72 5 2
2010 Jul 10 72 5 2
2010 Jul 11 72 5 2
2010 Jul 12 72 8 3
2010 Jul 13 70 10 3
2010 Jul 14 70 8 3
2010 Jul 15 70 5 2
2010 Jul 16 70 5 2
2010 Jul 17 70 5 2
2010 Jul 18 70 5 2
2010 Jul 19 70 5 2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 May 12 2121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 May 2009

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during 04 - 07 May. Four B1 X-ray flares were observed during 08 - 10 May. The
visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet levels during 02 - 06 May. Field activity increased to quiet to active levels during 07 - 08 May, with isolated minor storm periods observed at high latitudes, due to the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). ACE solar wind velocities increased from 414 km/s at 07/1803 UTC to a high of 527 km/s at 08/1136 UTC. During this period, the Bz component of the IMF varied between -5 nT and +5 nT. Field activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels on 09 - 10 May, and solar wind velocities gradually decreased to 415 km/s at the end of the forecast period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 May - 08 June 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal flux levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through 14 May. Activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels on 15 May, due to a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to predominantly quiet levels during 16 May - 02 June. Quiet to active conditions, with isolated major storm levels possible at high latitudes, are expected during 02 - 04 June, due to a recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet conditions are expected durivng 05 -v 08 June.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 May 12 2121 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Issued 2009 May 12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 May 13 73 5 2
2009 May 14 73 5 2
2009 May 15 73 8 3
2009 May 16 73 5 2
2009 May 17 73 5 2
2009 May 18 73 5 2
2009 May 19 72 5 2
2009 May 20 72 5 2
2009 May 21 70 5 2
2009 May 22 70 5 2
2009 May 23 70 5 2
2009 May 24 70 5 2
2009 May 25 70 5 2
2009 May 26 70 5 2
2009 May 27 70 5 2
2009 May 28 70 5 2
2009 May 29 70 5 2
2009 May 30 70 5 2
2009 May 31 70 5 2
2009 Jun 01 70 5 2
2009 Jun 02 70 10 3
2009 Jun 03 70 8 3
2009 Jun 04 70 10 4
2009 Jun 05 72 8 3
2009 Jun 06 72 5 2
2009 Jun 07 72 5 2
2009 Jun 08 73 5 2
(NOAA)