Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Aug 24 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 - 22 August 2010
Solar activity was at low levels for 16 August with Region 1099 (N17, L=345, class/area Bxo/060 on 16 August) producing several B-class flares and a C1 flare. New Region 1100 (S24, L=202, class/area Axx/010 on 16 August) was numbered on 16 August and remained a
single spotted alpha magnetic configuration until it went spotless on 21 August. Solar activity was at very low levels for 17 August. Low levels returned on 18 August due to a long-duration (LDE) C4 flare at 18/0548Z from Region 1099. This event had an associated Type II radio sweep (estimated shock velocity of 545 km/s), a partial-halo CME at 18/0600Z observed by SOHO C3 imagery, and a weak enhancement (peak of 4.1 pfu) of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux observed on the GOES 13 spacecraft. Solar activity returned to very low conditions for 19 August for the remainder of the period.

The greater than 10 MeV protons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced midday on 18 August in response to the LDE observed on the 18th. The enhancement reached a peak of 4.1 pfu at 18/1310Z.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 16 August. Normal to moderate flux levels occurred during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels for the summary period except for 16 and 18 August when activity was at quiet to unsettled conditions.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 August - 20 September 2010
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels. Very low to low levels are expected on 31 August through the remainder of the forecast when Regions 1093 and 1099 return to the front of the solar disk.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels from 25 August to 12 September. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the period (13-20 September).

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be unsettled to active condition for 25-26 August due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Mostly unsettled levels are expected for 27-28 August, becoming quiet conditions on 29 August as the CH HSS subsides. Quiet levels should prevail for the remainder of the forecast period until 20 September when quiet to unsettled conditions are expected due to the recurrent CH HSS.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Aug 24 1921 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Aug 24
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Aug 25 75 20 4
2010 Aug 26 75 15 3
2010 Aug 27 75 8 3
2010 Aug 28 74 8 3
2010 Aug 29 74 5 2
2010 Aug 30 73 5 2
2010 Aug 31 75 5 2
2010 Sep 01 80 5 2
2010 Sep 02 80 5 2
2010 Sep 03 85 5 2
2010 Sep 04 85 5 2
2010 Sep 05 85 5 2
2010 Sep 06 84 5 2
2010 Sep 07 84 5 2
2010 Sep 08 84 5 2
2010 Sep 09 82 5 2
2010 Sep 10 82 5 2
2010 Sep 11 82 5 2
2010 Sep 12 80 5 2
2010 Sep 13 80 5 2
2010 Sep 14 75 5 2
2010 Sep 15 75 5 2
2010 Sep 16 75 5 2
2010 Sep 17 75 5 2
2010 Sep 18 75 5 2
2010 Sep 19 75 8 3
2010 Sep 20 75 12 3
(NOAA)