Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:
Issued: 2011 Feb 15 1953 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 February 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels during the period. Activity was at very low levels on 07 February. Activity increased to low levels on 08 February when Region 1153 (N15, L=175, class/area Dso/180 on 09 February) produced two C-class flares. The largest of these was a C1/Sf at 08/2112 UTC. Activity increased to moderate levels on 09 February when Region 1153 produced an M1/Sf flare at 09/0131 UTC. Activity decreased to low levels on 10 February, with four C-class flares observed from Region 1153. The largest of these was a C4 flare at 10/1234 UTC. Activity decreased to very low on 11 February. Activity increased to low levels on 12 February when Region 1159 (N19, L=034, class/area Cso/020 on 13 February) produced a C2 flare. A Type II radio sweep, was observed at 12/2036 UTC. Two CMEs, both lifting off the east limb, were observed on LASCO C3 imagery at 11/1642 UTC and at 11/2318 UTC. The later CME was associated with the Type II radio sweep. Activity reached high levels on 13 February when Region 1158 (S20, L=034, class/area Eac/120 on 13 February) emerged on the disk and produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738 UTC. Associated with this event was a 130 sfu Tenflare and a Type II Radio Sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s). (NOTE: An X2 x-ray event was observed from Region 1158 at 15/0156 UTC; more details will be reported next week.)
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 07 - 11 February. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 12 - 13 February.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet during the forecast period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 February - 14 March 2011
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for high activity from 16 - 20 February. Activity is expected to decrease to low levels by 21 February as Regions 1158 and 1159 rotate off the visible disk. An increase in activity is expected on 05 March when old Region 1158 (S20, L=14) rotates back onto the disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels for 14 - 15 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 16 February - 04 March. High levels are expected from 05 - 10 March followed by a return to low to moderate levels for the remainder of the period (11 - 14 March).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from 16 - 19 February. The increase in activity is due to the combination of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and a CME associated with an X2 x-ray event observed on 15 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for 20 - 28 February. Activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods from 01 - 03 March due to a recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period (04 - 14 March).
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 15 1953 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-02-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Feb 16 100 8 3
2011 Feb 17 100 18 4
2011 Feb 18 100 25 5
2011 Feb 19 98 10 3
2011 Feb 20 98 5 2
2011 Feb 21 95 5 2
2011 Feb 22 90 5 2
2011 Feb 23 84 5 2
2011 Feb 24 80 5 2
2011 Feb 25 80 5 2
2011 Feb 26 80 5 2
2011 Feb 27 80 5 2
2011 Feb 28 80 5 2
2011 Mar 01 80 8 3
2011 Mar 02 80 10 3
2011 Mar 03 82 10 3
2011 Mar 04 82 8 3
2011 Mar 05 84 5 2
2011 Mar 06 84 5 2
2011 Mar 07 88 5 2
2011 Mar 08 88 5 2
2011 Mar 09 88 5 2
2011 Mar 10 90 5 2
2011 Mar 11 90 5 2
2011 Mar 12 95 5 2
2011 Mar 13 95 5 2
2011 Mar 14 95 5 2
(NOAA)
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 February 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to high levels during the period. Activity was at very low levels on 07 February. Activity increased to low levels on 08 February when Region 1153 (N15, L=175, class/area Dso/180 on 09 February) produced two C-class flares. The largest of these was a C1/Sf at 08/2112 UTC. Activity increased to moderate levels on 09 February when Region 1153 produced an M1/Sf flare at 09/0131 UTC. Activity decreased to low levels on 10 February, with four C-class flares observed from Region 1153. The largest of these was a C4 flare at 10/1234 UTC. Activity decreased to very low on 11 February. Activity increased to low levels on 12 February when Region 1159 (N19, L=034, class/area Cso/020 on 13 February) produced a C2 flare. A Type II radio sweep, was observed at 12/2036 UTC. Two CMEs, both lifting off the east limb, were observed on LASCO C3 imagery at 11/1642 UTC and at 11/2318 UTC. The later CME was associated with the Type II radio sweep. Activity reached high levels on 13 February when Region 1158 (S20, L=034, class/area Eac/120 on 13 February) emerged on the disk and produced an M6/1N flare at 13/1738 UTC. Associated with this event was a 130 sfu Tenflare and a Type II Radio Sweep (estimated velocity 1119 km/s). (NOTE: An X2 x-ray event was observed from Region 1158 at 15/0156 UTC; more details will be reported next week.)
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels from 07 - 11 February. Normal to moderate levels were observed on 12 - 13 February.
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet during the forecast period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 February - 14 March 2011
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for high activity from 16 - 20 February. Activity is expected to decrease to low levels by 21 February as Regions 1158 and 1159 rotate off the visible disk. An increase in activity is expected on 05 March when old Region 1158 (S20, L=14) rotates back onto the disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels for 14 - 15 February. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 16 February - 04 March. High levels are expected from 05 - 10 March followed by a return to low to moderate levels for the remainder of the period (11 - 14 March).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm periods from 16 - 19 February. The increase in activity is due to the combination of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) and a CME associated with an X2 x-ray event observed on 15 February. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for 20 - 28 February. Activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods from 01 - 03 March due to a recurrent CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the period (04 - 14 March).
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Feb 15 1953 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-02-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Feb 16 100 8 3
2011 Feb 17 100 18 4
2011 Feb 18 100 25 5
2011 Feb 19 98 10 3
2011 Feb 20 98 5 2
2011 Feb 21 95 5 2
2011 Feb 22 90 5 2
2011 Feb 23 84 5 2
2011 Feb 24 80 5 2
2011 Feb 25 80 5 2
2011 Feb 26 80 5 2
2011 Feb 27 80 5 2
2011 Feb 28 80 5 2
2011 Mar 01 80 8 3
2011 Mar 02 80 10 3
2011 Mar 03 82 10 3
2011 Mar 04 82 8 3
2011 Mar 05 84 5 2
2011 Mar 06 84 5 2
2011 Mar 07 88 5 2
2011 Mar 08 88 5 2
2011 Mar 09 88 5 2
2011 Mar 10 90 5 2
2011 Mar 11 90 5 2
2011 Mar 12 95 5 2
2011 Mar 13 95 5 2
2011 Mar 14 95 5 2
(NOAA)
