Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Jul 14 0501 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 07 - 13 July 2014
Solar activity reached moderate levels this week with M-class flares observed from Regions 2113 (N07, L=165, class/area=Cao/80 on 07 July) and 2106 (N14, L=264, class/area=Cao/120 on 09 July). The largest was an M6/2B event (R2 - moderate radio blackout) from Region 2113 on 08 July at 1520 UTC. This event was accompanied by Type II (949 km/s) and IV radio emissions but the CME, observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 1636 UTC, was directed north of the ecliptic and east of the Earth-Sun line.
Approximately eight hours later, this same region produced an M1 (R1 - minor radio blackout) event at 09/0026 UTC, also accompaneid by a Type II emission (1187 km/s). A faint CME emerged from the east limb beginning at about 09/0125 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery. Again, this CME was judged not to be Earth-directed.
Also on the 9th, an approximately 18 degree long filament, centered near S02E11, was observed in SDO AIA/304 imagery erupting between 09/1640-1757 UTC. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery showed the CME emerging shortly before 09/1900 UTC. The CME was analyzed, modeled, and predicted to arrive at Earth around midday on 13 July.
On the 10th, Region 2106 produced an M1(R1 - minor) flare at 2234 UTC without any accompanying radio emissions.
The remainder of the week was characterized by C-class activity despite the presence of large, complex regions on the visible disk. Region 2108 (S07, L=239, class/area=Ekc/890 on 08 July) was the largest and developed a beta-gamma-delta configuration, yet produced only C-flares.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at low levels throughout the week.
Planetary geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet during the week with the exception of the last synoptic period of 09 July and the first of 10 July, which were unsettled. At high latitudes, geomagnetic field activity reached active levels, with an isolated minor storm episode, on 12 July. Solar wind speed remained in the 300 km/s to the low 400 km/s range, steadily increasing from 08 July until midday on 10 July, after which it began to decline. Bz never dipped below -10 nT all week. After 13/0830 UTC, Bt began to increase significantly, nearing 11 nT by the end of the day. Phi was generally positive throughout the week, with the exception of a brief rotation to negative territory early on 12 July, which may have contributed to the disturbed conditions at high latitudes.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 14 July - 09 August 2014
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels (R1 - minor) throughout the forecast period, with an increased chance for moderate levels of activity after 24 July as the larger active regions begin to return.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at queit to unsettled levels in the absence of any transients. Recurrent features are expected to bring unsettled to active conditions from 14-16 July, and on 26 July.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Jul 14 0501 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-07-14
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Jul 14 120 8 3
2014 Jul 15 115 12 4
2014 Jul 16 110 8 3
2014 Jul 17 105 5 2
2014 Jul 18 105 5 2
2014 Jul 19 100 5 2
2014 Jul 20 95 5 2
2014 Jul 21 95 5 2
2014 Jul 22 100 5 2
2014 Jul 23 100 5 2
2014 Jul 24 105 5 2
2014 Jul 25 110 5 2
2014 Jul 26 115 8 3
2014 Jul 27 125 5 2
2014 Jul 28 135 5 2
2014 Jul 29 140 5 2
2014 Jul 30 145 5 2
2014 Jul 31 145 5 2
2014 Aug 01 150 5 2
2014 Aug 02 155 5 2
2014 Aug 03 150 5 2
2014 Aug 04 150 5 2
2014 Aug 05 150 5 2
2014 Aug 06 145 5 2
2014 Aug 07 140 5 2
2014 Aug 08 135 5 2
2014 Aug 09 125 5 2
(NOAA)
