Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2023 May 29 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 - 28 May 2023
Solar activity was at low to moderate level. Region 3311 (N18, L=274, class/area=Eai/470 on 24 May) produced the strongest event of the period, an M3 (R1 - Minor) flare at 23/1213 UTC. Three other, smaller, M-class events were also produced by the region on 22 May and 24 May. Regions 3315 (S17, L=235, class/area=Ekc/800 on 28 May) and 3312 (S23, L=262, class/area=Cri/070 on 22 May) also produced M-class activity. The remaining 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk were either quiet or only produced C-class events during the reporting period.
Other activity included Type II radio sweeps on 22, 23 and 27 May; however, none of the events were associated with ejecta that was suspected to be Earth-directed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire week due higher levels of geomagnetic activity followed by sustained elevated solar wind speeds.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels were observed on 22 May as transient influence transitioned in influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. As the HSS continued, active conditions on 23 May
further decreased to unsettled levels over 24-25 May. As solar wind speeds returned to nominal levels on 26-27 May, the geomagnetic field responded with quiet conditions. A minor increase to unsettled conditions was observed on 28 May following prolonged periods of southward Bz.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 29 May - 24 June 2023
Solar activity is likely to be at low to moderate levels (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) throughout the outlook period due to several complex regions on the visible disk and the anticipated return of several regions that have produced moderate-level activity returning from the far side of the Sun.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from moderate to high levels. High levels are likely on 03-05 May, 04-10 Jun, and 19-24 Jun in response to elevated wind speeds from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder
of the outlook, period is likely to be at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions. G1 conditions are likely on 02 Jun and 18 Jun; active conditions are likely on 29 May, 03-04 Jun, and 19-20 Jun; unsettled conditions are likely on 30 May, 05-06 Jun, and 21 Jun. All elevated levels of geomagnetic field activity are a response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2023 May 29 0142 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2023-05-29
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2023 May 29 150 12 4
2023 May 30 145 10 3
2023 May 31 140 5 2
2023 Jun 01 135 5 2
2023 Jun 02 130 15 5
2023 Jun 03 130 12 4
2023 Jun 04 130 15 4
2023 Jun 05 130 10 3
2023 Jun 06 130 8 3
2023 Jun 07 130 5 2
2023 Jun 08 130 5 2
2023 Jun 09 130 5 2
2023 Jun 10 130 5 2
2023 Jun 11 130 5 2
2023 Jun 12 135 5 2
2023 Jun 13 140 5 2
2023 Jun 14 143 5 2
2023 Jun 15 145 5 2
2023 Jun 16 150 5 2
2023 Jun 17 155 5 2
2023 Jun 18 155 22 5
2023 Jun 19 155 15 4
2023 Jun 20 155 12 4
2023 Jun 21 150 10 3
2023 Jun 22 150 5 2
2023 Jun 23 150 5 2
2023 Jun 24 150 5 2
(NOAA)
