Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2014 Aug 18 0139 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 - 17 August 2014
Solar activity was at very low to low levels. This period saw predominately B-class flare activity with isolated C-class flare activity, especially late in the period. The largest event of the period was a C2/Sf flare at 0930 UTC on 16 Aug from Region 2144 (S17, L=107, class/area=Dsi/220 on 17 Aug). In addition to the C2 flare, Region 2144 produced two additional low-level C-class flares and Region 2139 (N13, L=058, class/area=Eac/140 on 15 Aug)contributed three low-level C-class flares this period.
A filament eruption estimated at 30 degree in extent was observed leaving the solar disk in SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery between 1630-1715 UTC on 15 Aug. A subsequent partial-halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 15/1800 UTC. Forecaster analysis of this event and WSA-ENLIL model output suggest an anticipated CME arrival at Earth late on 19 Aug.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 12 Aug with normal to moderate levels observed on 11, 13-17 Aug. A maximum flux value of 565 pfu was observed at 1605 UTC on 11 Aug.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 13-16 Aug under nominal solar wind conditions. Quiet to unsettled levels were observed on 11 and 17 Aug and quiet to active levels were observed on 12 Aug, due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 August - 13 September 2014
Solar activity is expected to be low throughout the period with a slight chance for M-class (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate)) flare activity for 21 Aug - 06 Sep due to the return of old Regions 2127 (S09, L=249, class/area=Dkc/300 on 30 Jul) and 2130 (S07, L= 230, class/area=Ekc/290 on 01 Aug), which produced one and two M-class flares, respectively.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet on 18, 23-27, and 30 Aug, 03-05 and 09-13 Sep. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 19-20 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of the 15 Aug coronal mass ejection (CME), followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on 21-22 Aug due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 28-29 Aug due to a solar sector boundary crossing followed by a co-rotation interaction region. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 31 Aug followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 01-02 Sep due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 06-08 Sep due to CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Aug 18 0139 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-08-18
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Aug 18 115 5 2
2014 Aug 19 110 12 4
2014 Aug 20 110 14 4
2014 Aug 21 115 8 3
2014 Aug 22 120 8 3
2014 Aug 23 125 5 2
2014 Aug 24 130 5 2
2014 Aug 25 135 5 2
2014 Aug 26 135 5 2
2014 Aug 27 135 5 2
2014 Aug 28 140 8 3
2014 Aug 29 135 8 3
2014 Aug 30 130 5 2
2014 Aug 31 125 12 4
2014 Sep 01 125 10 3
2014 Sep 02 130 8 3
2014 Sep 03 125 5 2
2014 Sep 04 120 5 2
2014 Sep 05 115 5 2
2014 Sep 06 110 8 3
2014 Sep 07 105 8 3
2014 Sep 08 105 10 3
2014 Sep 09 105 5 2
2014 Sep 10 100 5 2
2014 Sep 11 110 5 2
2014 Sep 12 110 5 2
2014 Sep 13 115 5 2
(NOAA)
