Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 17 0400 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 10 - 16 October 2016
Solar activity was low very low on 10-11 Oct and 15-16 Oct. Activity was at low levels on 12-14 Oct, with the strongest flare, a C1 at 13/2105 UTC, occurring from around the east limb. Region 2599 (S15, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) was the only numbered region to produce a C-class flare; a C1/Sf at 12/1155 UTC. On 14 Oct, two filament eruptions were observed in GONG and SDO/AIA imagery in the NE quadrant. Around 14/1500 UTC, a five degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near N01E30. Later, around 14/2230 UTC, a ten degree long filament erupted along a channel centered near N09E45. No associated CME signatures were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels on 13-14 Oct. Moderate levels were observed
on 11-12 Oct. High levels were reached on 10 Oct, and 14-16 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity during the reporting period ranged from quiet to major storm (G2-Moderate) levels. Quiet to unsettled levels
were observed on 10 Oct and tapered down to quiet levels until late on 12 Oct, when unsettled levels were observed from the onset of the 08 Oct CME. Unsettled to levels continued into 13 Oct, increasing to G2 (Moderate) storm levels late on 13 Oct and into early on 14 Oct. Minor (G1-Minor) storm levels gave way to unsettled and then quiet conditions as 14 Oct progressed. Quiet to unsettled levels persisted over 15-16 Oct, increasing to G1 (Minor) storm levels once again, late on 16 Oct, in response to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
The solar wind environment was at near-background levels from 10-12 Oct. Late on 12 Oct, an enhancement was observed after 12/2120 UTC, marking the arrival of a CME from a filament eruption centered near N38E40 on 08 Oct. During the sheath, a moderate increase in solar
wind speed was observed, increasing from an ambient 370 km/s to an enhanced 400-445 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 2-10 nT. The Bz component displayed a primarily northward
orientation. Around 13/0520 UTC, enhancements in the solar wind suggested the transitions from the sheath to the CME driver. Density dropped and total magnetic field strength steadily increased to a
peak of 24 nT around 13/2200 UTC. The Bz component rotated in a sustained far southward orientation, with a slow rotation northward beginning around 13/2200 UTC. Solar wind speeds were relatively modest, ranging from around 380-450 km/s during the event. Solar wind parameters slowly declined towards background conditions through 15 Oct. Early on 16 Oct, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS was observed. Solar wind speeds steadily increased, reaching peak wind speeds around 750 km/s as the reporting period ended.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 October - 12 November 2016
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity throughout the outlook period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 21-23 Oct and 7-11 Nov; high levels on 17-20 Oct, 25-26, 30 Oct - 06 Nov, and 12 Nov; very high levels on 27-29 Oct. Enhancement in the 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated as a result of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach major storm (G2-Moderate) levels on 17 Oct due to elevated winds from the influence of a negative polarity coronal hole. Conditions are expected to decrease to active by 18 Oct, and quiet to unsettled conditions on 19 Oct, as the negative polarity CH HSS wanes. Active conditions are again likely on 22 Oct with the onset of recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Conditions are forecast to reach minor (G1-Minor) storm levels on 23 Oct and G2 storm levels from 24-26 Oct as solar wind speeds expected to climb. G1 storm conditions are likely from 27-31 Oct, and active conditions by 01 Nov, as the CH HSS slowly subsides. Quiet conditions are likely from 02-10 Nov under an ambient solar wind regime. Unsettled conditions on 11 Nov
are likely to give way to G1 storm conditions on 12 Nov as another negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to enhance the near-Earth space environment.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 17 0400 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-10-17
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 17 80 26 6
2016 Oct 18 80 12 4
2016 Oct 19 75 8 3
2016 Oct 20 75 5 2
2016 Oct 21 75 5 2
2016 Oct 22 75 12 4
2016 Oct 23 75 22 5
2016 Oct 24 70 35 6
2016 Oct 25 70 35 6
2016 Oct 26 70 35 6
2016 Oct 27 75 20 5
2016 Oct 28 75 15 5
2016 Oct 29 75 15 5
2016 Oct 30 80 15 5
2016 Oct 31 85 25 5
2016 Nov 01 85 12 4
2016 Nov 02 85 5 2
2016 Nov 03 85 5 2
2016 Nov 04 85 5 2
2016 Nov 05 85 5 2
2016 Nov 06 90 8 3
2016 Nov 07 90 5 2
2016 Nov 08 90 5 2
2016 Nov 09 85 5 2
2016 Nov 10 85 5 2
2016 Nov 11 85 10 3
2016 Nov 12 80 24 5
(NOAA)
