Monday, October 24, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 October 2016 Solar activity was very low to low with a single C-class flare observed on 17 Oct. At 17/0038 UTC, a C4 flare was observed from
Region 2599 (S15, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) which had rotated around the southwest limb on 15 Oct. A nine degree long filament, centered near N26W02, was observed erupting in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG imagery at about 20/1300 UTC. A slow-moving, faint CME was
observed in LASCO C2 imagery with possible effects observed on 23 October. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to very high levels. On 18 Oct very high levels were observed, with a peak level of 52,137 pfu. High levels were observed on 17 Oct and 19-22 Oct. Normal to high levels were observed on 23 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity during the reporting period ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 17 Oct and tapered into quiet to unsettled levels through 19 Oct due to the waning effects of a CH HSS. Quiet conditions were observed from 20-22 Oct under an ambient solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled conditions were noted 23-24 Oct due to a SSBC and initial
CH HSS effects.

The solar wind environment was above background levels on 17 Oct under the influence of a CH HSS with wind speeds between 700-800 km/s. Wind speeds gradually tapered to background conditions on 18-19 Oct. Winds increased again to around 450 km/s and minor enhancements to total field were observed on 23 Oct due to a SSBC and weak CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2016-10-24
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2016 Oct 24      76          32          6
2016 Oct 25      74          44          6
2016 Oct 26      73          40          6
2016 Oct 27      71          22          5
2016 Oct 28      70          18          5
2016 Oct 29      71          18          5
2016 Oct 30      77          14          4
2016 Oct 31      80          20          5
2016 Nov 01      80          12          4
2016 Nov 02      80           5          2
2016 Nov 03      80           5          2
2016 Nov 04      80           5          2
2016 Nov 05      80           5          2
2016 Nov 06      80           8          3
2016 Nov 07      78           5          2
2016 Nov 08      78           5          2
2016 Nov 09      78           5          2
2016 Nov 10      78           5          2
2016 Nov 11      75          10          3
2016 Nov 12      75          15          4
2016 Nov 13      73          18          5
2016 Nov 14      73          10          3
2016 Nov 15      73           8          3
2016 Nov 16      73           5          2
2016 Nov 17      75           5          2
2016 Nov 18      75           5          2
2016 Nov 19      75          10          3
(NOAA)