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Monday, October 24, 2016
Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 17 - 23 October 2016 Solar activity was very low to low with a single C-class flare observed on 17 Oct. At 17/0038 UTC, a C4 flare was observed from
Region 2599 (S15, L=144, class/area Cko/460 on 05 Oct) which had rotated around the southwest limb on 15 Oct. A nine degree long filament, centered near N26W02, was observed erupting in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG imagery at about 20/1300 UTC. A slow-moving, faint CME was
observed in LASCO C2 imagery with possible effects observed on 23 October. No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal to very high levels. On 18 Oct very high levels were observed, with a peak level of 52,137 pfu. High levels were observed on 17 Oct and 19-22 Oct. Normal to high levels were observed on 23 Oct. Geomagnetic field activity during the reporting period ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet to active conditions were observed on 17 Oct and tapered into quiet to unsettled levels through 19 Oct due to the waning effects of a CH HSS. Quiet conditions were observed from 20-22 Oct under an ambient solar wind regime. Quiet to unsettled conditions were noted 23-24 Oct due to a SSBC and initial
CH HSS effects.
The solar wind environment was above background levels on 17 Oct under the influence of a CH HSS with wind speeds between 700-800 km/s. Wind speeds gradually tapered to background conditions on 18-19 Oct. Winds increased again to around 450 km/s and minor enhancements to total field were observed on 23 Oct due to a SSBC and weak CH HSS effects.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2016 Oct 24 0702 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2016-10-24
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2016 Oct 24 76 32 6
2016 Oct 25 74 44 6
2016 Oct 26 73 40 6
2016 Oct 27 71 22 5
2016 Oct 28 70 18 5
2016 Oct 29 71 18 5
2016 Oct 30 77 14 4
2016 Oct 31 80 20 5
2016 Nov 01 80 12 4
2016 Nov 02 80 5 2
2016 Nov 03 80 5 2
2016 Nov 04 80 5 2
2016 Nov 05 80 5 2
2016 Nov 06 80 8 3
2016 Nov 07 78 5 2
2016 Nov 08 78 5 2
2016 Nov 09 78 5 2
2016 Nov 10 78 5 2
2016 Nov 11 75 10 3
2016 Nov 12 75 15 4
2016 Nov 13 73 18 5
2016 Nov 14 73 10 3
2016 Nov 15 73 8 3
2016 Nov 16 73 5 2
2016 Nov 17 75 5 2
2016 Nov 18 75 5 2
2016 Nov 19 75 10 3
(NOAA)