Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Nov 12 0247 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 November 2018
Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk remained spotless. However, spots emerged late on 11 Nov near N05E13, but remained unnumered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high levels on 05-09 Nov, normal to moderate levels on 10 Nov and normal to high levels on 11 Nov.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G2 (Moderate) storm levels during the period due to a pair of recurrent CH HSSs. The solar wind enviroment was enhanced on 05 Nov due to a positive
polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds peaked at 610 km/s at 05/0506 UTC and the Bz component saw a maximum deflection of -8 nT at 05/0406 UTC. During this timeframe, unsettled to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic conditions were observed. 06 Nov began a downward trend to a more nominal solar wind regime as CH HSS influence waned. Wind speeds decreased to a low of 400 km/s at 07/0611 UTC. Quiet to isolated active conditions were observed from 06-08 Nov. Mostly nominal conditions continued until early on 09 Nov with arrival of a SSBC/CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Density reached a maximum of 18.17 particles per cubic cm at 09/1530 ahead of the CIR.
Total field reached a maximum of 14 nT at 10/0600 UTC and the Bz component reached a maximum deflection of -8 nT at 10/0821 UTC. The negative polarity CH HSS arrived early on 10 Nov with wind speeds just over 600 km/s, which continued to be geoeffective through 11 Nov. Field conditions were at quiet to isolated active levels from 09-11 Nov.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 November - 08 December 2018
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels through the forecast period (12 Nov-08 Dec).
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels 12 Nov-16 Nov due to CH HSS influence. An extened period of normal levels is expected 18 Nov-01 Dec due to nominal solar wind environment conditions. Mostly high levels are likely 02-08 Dec with the return of a pair of recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be slightly enhanced 12 Nov-14 Nov, with a chance for isolated active levels possible, due to a geoeffection, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditons are expected 15 Nov-30 Nov under a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled conditions are likely 01 Dec-08 Dec, with a chance of a few active periods, due to a pair of recurrent CH HSSs.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Nov 12 0247 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2018-11-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2018 Nov 12 70 12 3
2018 Nov 13 70 10 3
2018 Nov 14 70 8 3
2018 Nov 15 70 5 2
2018 Nov 16 70 5 2
2018 Nov 17 70 5 2
2018 Nov 18 70 5 2
2018 Nov 19 69 5 2
2018 Nov 20 68 5 2
2018 Nov 21 68 5 2
2018 Nov 22 68 5 3
2018 Nov 23 68 5 2
2018 Nov 24 68 5 2
2018 Nov 25 68 5 2
2018 Nov 26 68 5 2
2018 Nov 27 68 5 2
2018 Nov 28 68 5 2
2018 Nov 29 68 5 2
2018 Nov 30 68 5 2
2018 Dec 01 68 15 4
2018 Dec 02 68 30 5
2018 Dec 03 69 10 3
2018 Dec 04 69 10 3
2018 Dec 05 70 8 3
2018 Dec 06 69 8 3
2018 Dec 07 69 12 3
2018 Dec 08 70 12 3
(NOAA)
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