Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Jul 15 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 July 2019
Solar activity was at very low levels throughout the reporting period. Region 2744 (S27, Lo=209, class/area=Bxo/020 on 07 Jul) decayed to played by 08 Jul. A coronal dimming was observed in the SDO/AIA 193 beginning around 14/0030 UTC from near the vicinity of old Region 2744 (S27W46). A subsequent CME signature associated with the event was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14//0236 UTC. The slow-moving, narrow and faint signature from the SW limb was modeled and the resulting WSA-Enlil output suggested no Earth-directed component was present.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels on 08-09 Jul. An increase to moderate to high levels, in response to activity from a negative polarity CH HSS, was observed on 10 Jul and persisted through 14 Jul.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. An abrupt enhancement from a possible transient was observed at 08/1829 UTC. Total field increase from 4 to 10 nT and solar wind speeds increased from 300 km/s to a brief peak of 400 km/s resulting in an isolated period of active conditions. Late on 09 Jul, the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS increased wind speeds to a peak of 663 km/s and total field to 13 nT. G1 storm conditions followed a period of sustained southward Bz with values reaching as far south as -11 nT at 09/1845 UTC. A final period of G1 storm conditions was observed early on 10 Jul as influence from the CH HSS persisted. Quiet to unsettled levels on 11 Jul transitioned to quiet through the end of the reporting period as the solar wind returned to nominal levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 July - 10 August 2019
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from the normal background to high levels. High levels are expected from 15-18 Jul and 06-10 Aug; moderate levels are expected on 19-21 Jul; the remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at the normal background levels. All enhancements in electron flux are expected due to the anticipation of the multiple,recurrent CH HSSs.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active levels. Active levels are expected on 15-16 Jul and 05-06 Aug; unsettled levels are expected on 17 Jul, 28 Jul, 04 Aug and 07 Aug; the remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. All increases in geomagnetic activity are due to the anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.
roduct: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Jul 15 0223 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2019-07-15
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2019 Jul 15 67 10 4
2019 Jul 16 67 12 4
2019 Jul 17 67 8 3
2019 Jul 18 67 5 2
2019 Jul 19 67 5 2
2019 Jul 20 67 5 2
2019 Jul 21 67 5 2
2019 Jul 22 67 5 2
2019 Jul 23 67 5 2
2019 Jul 24 67 5 2
2019 Jul 25 67 5 2
2019 Jul 26 67 5 2
2019 Jul 27 67 5 2
2019 Jul 28 67 8 3
2019 Jul 29 67 5 2
2019 Jul 30 67 5 2
2019 Jul 31 67 5 2
2019 Aug 01 67 5 2
2019 Aug 02 67 5 2
2019 Aug 03 67 5 2
2019 Aug 04 67 8 3
2019 Aug 05 67 15 4
2019 Aug 06 67 15 4
2019 Aug 07 67 8 3
2019 Aug 08 67 5 2
2019 Aug 09 67 5 2
2019 Aug 10 67 5 2
(NOAA)
