Monday, January 06, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jan 06 0724 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 05 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. New Region 2755 (S34, L=355, class/area Bxo/020 on 03 Jan) developed on the SE limb on 01 Jan but was in decay by 04 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 30 Dec-04 Jan. Moderate levels were reached on 05 Jan with a maximum flux of 245 pfu observed at 05/1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 30 Dec-02 Jan under nominal solar wind conditions. On 03 Jan, total field increased to 10 nT at 03/0505 UTC with solar wind speed increasing to around 410 km/s. On 04 Jan, a prolonged period of southward Bz was observed reaching a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. On 05 Jan, total field increased once again to 15 nT at 05/1743 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to near 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 03-04 Jan and quiet to active levels on 05 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 January - 01 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 08-14 Jan and 23 Jan-01 Feb. Moderate levels are expected on 06-07 Jan and again on 15-22 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 08-10 Jan and 01 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 06 Jan and14-15 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 06 0724 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-01-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jan 06      72          12          4
2020 Jan 07      72           5          2
2020 Jan 08      72           8          3
2020 Jan 09      72           8          3
2020 Jan 10      72           8          3
2020 Jan 11      72           5          2
2020 Jan 12      71           5          2
2020 Jan 13      70           5          2
2020 Jan 14      70          12          4
2020 Jan 15      70          12          4
2020 Jan 16      70           5          2
2020 Jan 17      70           5          2
2020 Jan 18      70           5          2
2020 Jan 19      70           5          2
2020 Jan 20      70           5          2
2020 Jan 21      70           5          2
2020 Jan 22      70           5          2
2020 Jan 23      70           5          2
2020 Jan 24      70           5          2
2020 Jan 25      71           5          2
2020 Jan 26      72           5          2
2020 Jan 27      72           5          2
2020 Jan 28      72           5          2
2020 Jan 29      72           5          2
2020 Jan 30      72           5          2
2020 Jan 31      72           5          2
2020 Feb 01      72           8          3
(NOAA)