Monday, March 02, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Mar 02 0510 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 24 February - 01 March 2020

Solar activity was very low over the period under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 24-25 Feb, 27 Feb, and again on 29 Feb-01 Mar. High levels occurred on 26 and 28 Feb with a peak flux of 2,170 pfu observed at 26/1950 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over the period. Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels from 24 Feb through early on 28 Feb. At 28/0650 UTC total field then began to increase to around 8 nT while the Bz component became variable between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speed initially increased to 503 at 29/0248 UTC before increasing a second time to 573 km/s at the 29/1942 UTC. This increase in solar wind parameters was due to a connection to a negative polarity southern crown coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) followed by a connection with an isolated negative polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet levels on 24-28 Feb and quiet to active levels on 29 Feb-01 Mar.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 March - 28 March 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 02-03, 10-18, 22-28 Mar. High levels are expected on 04-09 and 19-21 Mar due to the CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels on 02-07, 18-20, 27-28 Mar with active periods likely on 02, 19, 27-28 Mar due to CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Mar 02 0510 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-03-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Mar 02      70          12          4
2020 Mar 03      70          10          3
2020 Mar 04      70           8          3
2020 Mar 05      70           8          3
2020 Mar 06      70           8          3
2020 Mar 07      70           8          3
2020 Mar 08      70           5          2
2020 Mar 09      70           5          2
2020 Mar 10      70           5          2
2020 Mar 11      70           5          2
2020 Mar 12      70           5          2
2020 Mar 13      70           5          2
2020 Mar 14      70           5          2
2020 Mar 15      70           5          2
2020 Mar 16      70           5          2
2020 Mar 17      70           5          2
2020 Mar 18      70           8          3
2020 Mar 19      70          12          4
2020 Mar 20      70           8          3
2020 Mar 21      70           5          2
2020 Mar 22      70           5          2
2020 Mar 23      70           5          2
2020 Mar 24      70           5          2
2020 Mar 25      70           5          2
2020 Mar 26      70           5          2
2020 Mar 27      70          12          4
2020 Mar 28      70          14          4
(NOAA)