Monday, July 27, 2020

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jul 27 0132 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 - 26 July 2020

Solar activity was very low throughout the period. New Region 2767  (S21, L=200, class/area Hsx/120 on 26 Jul) rotated onto the disk on 21 Jul, but was quiet and stable. A slow-moving, partial halo CME was detected in coronagraph imagery in the NE quadrantat at about 19/1135 UTC. Subsequent model analysis indicated an Earth-directed component would likely become geoeffective on 24-25 Jul. No other CME activity was detected during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels 20-23 Jul. Field conditions reached unsettled to active levels on 24-25 Jul due to effects from the 19 Jul CME. A return to quiet conditions was observed on 26 Jul. Solar wind parameters reflected enhanced conditions on 24-25 Jul as a result of CME effects. Solar wind speeds increased from approximately 300 km/s to near 415 km/s. Total field peaked at 11 nT while the Bz component dropped south to -10 nT. Density levels increased to 28 particles/cc. Ambient solar wind parameters were present on 20-23 Jul and 26 Jul.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 July - 22 August 2020

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels thoughout the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 28-29 Jul due to a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail throughout the rest of the outlook period.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jul 27 0132 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-07-27
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jul 27      71           5          2
2020 Jul 28      71           8          3
2020 Jul 29      70           8          3
2020 Jul 30      70           5          2
2020 Jul 31      70           5          2
2020 Aug 01      70           5          2
2020 Aug 02      69           5          2
2020 Aug 03      68           5          2
2020 Aug 04      68           5          2
2020 Aug 05      68           5          2
2020 Aug 06      68           5          2
2020 Aug 07      68           5          2
2020 Aug 08      68           5          2
2020 Aug 09      68           5          2
2020 Aug 10      68           5          2
2020 Aug 11      68           5          2
2020 Aug 12      68           5          2
2020 Aug 13      68           5          2
2020 Aug 14      68           5          2
2020 Aug 15      68           5          2
2020 Aug 16      68           5          2
2020 Aug 17      68           5          2
2020 Aug 18      68           5          2
2020 Aug 19      68           5          2
2020 Aug 20      68           5          2
2020 Aug 21      68           5          2
2020 Aug 22      68           5          2
(NOAA)