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Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 May 16 0228 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 09 - 15 May 2022
Solar activity ranged from low to high levels. Region 3006 (S30, L=235, class/area=Eai/180 on 10 May) produced the strongest event of the period, an impulsive X1/1b at 10/1355 UTC. Type II and Type IV radio sweeps occurred near the event but wasn't clear if it was associated with activity near the E limb, which also produced an associated CME around the same time. The region only produced C-class activity after that event and slowly decayed over the next several days. Region 3007 (S24, L=184, class/area=Ekc/350 on 12 May) produced an M1/1n flare on 11/1648 UTC. While being the most complex region on the visible disk, it also only produced C-class activity through the end of the reporting period. The remaining spotted regions on the visible disk were relatively simple and produced only low-level X-ray activity.
Other activities included several M-flare events that were produced from activity from around both the E and W limbs. An M2 flare at 11/1858 UTC from the vicinity of Region 3004 (S16, L=324, class/area=Dkc/500 on 05 May), which had around the W limb two days before, produced a Type II and Type IV radio sweep. Ejecta from the several CMEs observed during the period were determined to be off the Sun-Earth line, with only the periphery of some of the CMEs having the potential to cause minor enhancements near Earth.
No proton events above S1 (Minor) were observed at geosynchronous orbit. An enhancement below the S1 threshold was observed after the M2 flare from old Region 3004 around the W limb. The maximum >10 MeV proton flux was 5 pfu, observed early on 12 May.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the reporting period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active conditions. Unsettled conditions that were observed on 09 May and 13 May were likely associated with weak enhancements from transient activity. Unsettled conditions on 14 May into active conditions on 15 May were associated with the onset CIR followed by influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds increased from the mid 300's km/s to ~570 km/s on 15 May. The remainder of the reporting period was at quiet levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 May - 11 June 2022
Solar activity is expected to be low levels throughout most of the outlook period. With the exception of 21-22 May, regions associated with M-flare activity are expected to be present on the visible disk, carrying with them a slight chance for M-class activity.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate levels from 16-25 May and 05-11 Jun. High levels are expected from 26 May - to 04 Jun and are associated with influence from anticipated CH HSS activity.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 levels are likely on 24 May; active levels are likely on 16 May, 25-17 May, and 11 Jun; unsettled levels are likely on 17 May, 19-20 May, 28 May, and 10 Jun. All elevations in geomagnetic activity are anticipated in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at mostly quiet levels.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 May 16 0228 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2022-05-16
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2022 May 16 154 14 4
2022 May 17 152 8 3
2022 May 18 152 5 2
2022 May 19 150 8 3
2022 May 20 148 8 3
2022 May 21 140 5 2
2022 May 22 140 5 2
2022 May 23 145 5 2
2022 May 24 142 18 5
2022 May 25 142 15 4
2022 May 26 138 15 4
2022 May 27 136 15 4
2022 May 28 136 8 3
2022 May 29 138 5 2
2022 May 30 140 5 2
2022 May 31 140 5 2
2022 Jun 01 143 5 2
2022 Jun 02 143 5 2
2022 Jun 03 143 5 2
2022 Jun 04 140 5 2
2022 Jun 05 136 5 2
2022 Jun 06 138 5 2
2022 Jun 07 138 5 2
2022 Jun 08 140 5 2
2022 Jun 09 150 5 2
2022 Jun 10 154 8 3
2022 Jun 11 154 14 4
(NOAA)
