Monday, June 20, 2022

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

 


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2022 Jun 20 0240 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and web SWPC www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 June 2022

Solar activity ranged from low to moderate levels. Low levels were observed on 14-19 Jun with the majority of the C-class flares from Regions 3030 (N18, L=117, class/area Dai/230 on 19 Jun), 3031 (S26, L=130, class/area Eai/240 on 15 Jun), 3037 (S21, L=140, class/area Csi/060 on 17 Jun) and 3038 (N15, L=053, class/area Dai/140 on 19 Jun). Moderate (R1-Minor) flare activity was observed on 13 and 16 Jun. Region 3032 (N21, L=106, class/area Dai/180 on 13 Jun) produced an LDE, M3.4/1n event at 13/0407 UTC. Associated with this event were Type II (325 km/s) and Type IV Sweep signatures, a 670 sfu Tenflare and a CME signature analyzed with a potential arrival time of early on 15 Jun. Region 3031 produced an M1.6 at 16/0353 UTC. Other than the 13 Jun CME, no additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels on 13-17 Jun. High levels were reached on 18-19 Jun with a maximum flux reading of 2,950 pfu observed at 19/1735 UTC. 

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) and the geomagnetic storms were observed on 13 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet levels were observed on 14 Jun. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 15 Jun due to effects from the 13 Jun CME. 16 Jun saw unsettled to active levels as CME effects continued. 
The unsettled to active levels were observed on 17-19 Jun due to the positive polarity CH HSS influence. During the period, solar wind speeds ranged from a low of near 440 km/s on 14 Jun to a high of near 650 km/s late on 17 Jun. The total field was at mostly 5-10 nT through the period with the Bz component at mostly +/- 7 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive orientation. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 June - 16 July 2022

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels, with a chance for further M-class flares on 20-24 Jun due to potential flare activity from Regions 3031 and 3032. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 20-22 Jun, 27 Jun - 02 Jul and 15-16 Jul due to CH HSS influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 20 Jun, 23-26 Jun, 08-11 Jul, and 14-16 Jul with active levels on 24 Jun due to recurrent CH HSS activity. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Jun 20 0240 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2022-06-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2022 Jun 20     138          10          3
2022 Jun 21     134           5          2
2022 Jun 22     125           5          2
2022 Jun 23     121          12          4
2022 Jun 24     118          18          5
2022 Jun 25     114          12          4
2022 Jun 26     105          10          3
2022 Jun 27     100           5          2
2022 Jun 28     100           5          2
2022 Jun 29     100           5          2
2022 Jun 30     100           5          2
2022 Jul 01     100           5          2
2022 Jul 02     100           5          2
2022 Jul 03     105           5          2
2022 Jul 04     110           5          2
2022 Jul 05     115           5          2
2022 Jul 06     120           5          2
2022 Jul 07     125           5          2
2022 Jul 08     130           8          3
2022 Jul 09     130           8          3
2022 Jul 10     135          12          4
2022 Jul 11     140           8          3
2022 Jul 12     140           5          2
2022 Jul 13     140           5          2
2022 Jul 14     140          12          4
2022 Jul 15     140          12          4
2022 Jul 16     140          12          4
(NOAA)