Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Feb 19 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 February 2024
Solar activity reached high levels on 12 and 16 Feb, and moderate levels on 14-15 Feb. The largest event of the period was an X2.5/1n flare at 16/0653 UTC from Region 3576 (S16, L=060, class/area=Fkc/660 on 14 Feb). Region 3576 was the largest and most active sunspot region of the period, and in addition to the X-flare, produced eight M-class flares throughout the week. Region 3582 (N06, L=035, class/area=Dai/240 on 13 Feb) produced an isolated M1 flare at 14/0310 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during this period.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels on 12-13 Feb, and S1 levels on 14 Feb, following a C6.9 flare at 12/0554 UTC from Region 3576. A peak flux of 118 pfu was observed at 13/0615 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background levels over 15-18 Feb, but remained below event thresholds.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the week.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 12 Feb. Active levels were observed on 13 Feb, and unsettled levels were observed on 14 Feb, due to the arrival of multiple CMEs from 10-11 Feb. Quiet conditions were observed over 15-17 Feb, and quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 18 Feb.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 February - 16 March 2024
Solar activity is expected to be low with a varying chance for M-class flare activity throughout the period. Old Region 3575 (S37, L=177), which produced M-class flares last rotation and multiple CMEs during its transit of the far side, is expected to return to
the visible disk on 20 Feb.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit, barring significant flare activity.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly quiet throughout the outlook period. Unsettled conditions are likely on 19-20 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 16 Feb, and again on 26-27 Feb due to negative polarity, CH HSS influences.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Feb 19 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-02-19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Feb 19 160 8 3
2024 Feb 20 160 10 3
2024 Feb 21 165 5 2
2024 Feb 22 170 5 2
2024 Feb 23 170 5 2
2024 Feb 24 172 5 2
2024 Feb 25 172 5 2
2024 Feb 26 165 8 3
2024 Feb 27 165 7 3
2024 Feb 28 165 5 2
2024 Feb 29 155 5 2
2024 Mar 01 160 5 2
2024 Mar 02 165 5 2
2024 Mar 03 170 5 2
2024 Mar 04 170 5 2
2024 Mar 05 170 5 2
2024 Mar 06 170 5 2
2024 Mar 07 170 5 2
2024 Mar 08 170 5 2
2024 Mar 09 170 5 2
2024 Mar 10 165 5 2
2024 Mar 11 165 5 2
2024 Mar 12 165 5 2
2024 Mar 13 165 5 2
2024 Mar 14 165 5 2
2024 Mar 15 165 5 2
2024 Mar 16 165 5 2
(NOAA)
