Monday, June 03, 2024

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jun 03 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 27 May - 02 June 2024

Solar activity ranged from low to high levels throughout the period. Region 3697 (S18, L=350, class/area=Eki/420 on 30 May) was the most productive region this period and produced five X-class flares, and seven M-class flares; the largest of which was an X2.8 flare at
27/0708 UTC. Region 3691 (N25, L=042, class/area=Ekc/480 on 27 May) produced three M-class events and Region 3695 (N27, L=028, class/area=Cao/30 on 01 Jun) produced a single M-class flare. Other notable activity included a long-duration X1.4/2b flare at 29/1437
UTC from Region 3697, with accompanying Type II and IV radio emissions, and an Earth-directed partial halo CME that arrived on 31 May. Additionally, an impulsive X1.0/2b flare at 01/1836 UTC and a long-duration M7.3 flare at 01/1939 UTC, both from Region 3697,
resulted in a CME that is likely to glance by Earth on 04 Jun. 

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels. 

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet and quiet to unsettled levels throughout much of the period. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming was observed early on 31 May due to CME activity. 

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 03 June - 29 June 2024

Solar activity is likely to reach moderate and high levels throughout the period, with M-class flares likely and a varying chance for X-class flares through 29 Jun. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels throughout the period. 

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 04 Jun, and active levels on 05 Jun, due to the anticipated glancing-blow arrival of the 01 Jun CME. Active contidiions are expected on 09 Jun due to CH HSS influences. Quiet
and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the outlook period. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jun 03 0120 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2024-06-03
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2024 Jun 03     180           5          2
2024 Jun 04     185          18          5
2024 Jun 05     185          15          4
2024 Jun 06     180           5          2
2024 Jun 07     175           5          2
2024 Jun 08     175           8          3
2024 Jun 09     175          12          4
2024 Jun 10     175          10          3
2024 Jun 11     180           5          2
2024 Jun 12     175           5          2
2024 Jun 13     170           5          2
2024 Jun 14     170           5          2
2024 Jun 15     170           5          2
2024 Jun 16     170           5          2
2024 Jun 17     170           5          2
2024 Jun 18     170           5          2
2024 Jun 19     170           8          3
2024 Jun 20     180           8          3
2024 Jun 21     190           5          2
2024 Jun 22     190           8          3
2024 Jun 23     190           8          3
2024 Jun 24     195           5          2
2024 Jun 25     195           5          2
2024 Jun 26     200           5          2
2024 Jun 27     205           5          2
2024 Jun 28     205           5          2
2024 Jun 29     205           5          2
(NOAA)