Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins




Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 February - 07 March 2015

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low to moderate levels throughout the period with only low levels of solar activity expected for 14-15 Feb. Low to moderate solar activity is expected
for the remainder of the period as Region 2280 (S07, L=283) continues its transit of the visible disk and as Region 2268 (S11, L=048) and Region 2277 (N08, L=330) return on 16 Feb and 22 Feb,
respectively. Regions 2268 and 2277 were previously credited with R1 (Minor) radio blackout event production during their previous appearance to the visible disk. 

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach moderate levels on 09-11, 17, 19-21, and 25 Feb a  well as 01 and 05-07 Mar with high levels anticipated on 02-04 Mar
in response to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. 

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels throughout the outlook period with periods of active conditions expected on 15, 17, 22-23 Feb and 02 Mar with
isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions likely on 28 Feb and 01 Mar, all due to recurrent CH HSS effects. 

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Feb 09 0210 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2015-02-09
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2015 Feb 09     150          10          3
2015 Feb 10     150           8          3
2015 Feb 11     150           8          3
2015 Feb 12     145           8          3
2015 Feb 13     140           8          3
2015 Feb 14     140          10          3
2015 Feb 15     145          12          4
2015 Feb 16     150           5          2
2015 Feb 17     155          12          4
2015 Feb 18     155          10          3
2015 Feb 19     150          10          3
2015 Feb 20     145           5          2
2015 Feb 21     140           5          2
2015 Feb 22     140          15          4
2015 Feb 23     145          12          4
2015 Feb 24     145          10          3
2015 Feb 25     145          10          3
2015 Feb 26     145          10          3
2015 Feb 27     150          10          3
2015 Feb 28     150          20          5
2015 Mar 01     145          20          5
2015 Mar 02     140          15          4
2015 Mar 03     140          10          3
2015 Mar 04     140          10          3
2015 Mar 05     140           5          2
2015 Mar 06     140           5          2
2015 Mar 07     140           8          3
(NOAA)