Monday, October 15, 2018

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 08 - 14 October 2018

Solar activity was very low this period. Regions 2724 (S08, L=126, class/area, Hrx/20 on 12 Oct) and 2725 (S11, L=113, class/area, Axx/10 on 14 Oct) were the only numbered sunspots on the visible disk but were quiet and stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels on 08-13 Oct then decreased to moderate levels on 14 Oct.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 10 and 13 Oct, active for conditions on 08-09 Oct, unsettled levels on 11 Oct, and quiet conditions on 12 and 14 Oct due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 October - 10 November 2018

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 15-25 Oct and 04-09 Nov with moderate flux levels expected throughout the remainder of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 19 Oct and on 03-04 Nov with active levels expected on 18 Oct and 05-06 Nov due to the influence of the multiple recurrent CH HSSs.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2018-10-15
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2018 Oct 15      72          10          3
2018 Oct 16      72           5          2
2018 Oct 17      72           5          2
2018 Oct 18      72          12          4
2018 Oct 19      72          18          5
2018 Oct 20      72          10          3
2018 Oct 21      72           5          3
2018 Oct 22      70          10          3
2018 Oct 23      70           8          3
2018 Oct 24      70           5          2
2018 Oct 25      69           5          2
2018 Oct 26      69          10          3
2018 Oct 27      69           5          2
2018 Oct 28      69           5          2
2018 Oct 29      69           5          2
2018 Oct 30      69           5          2
2018 Oct 31      69           5          2
2018 Nov 01      69           5          2
2018 Nov 02      69           5          2
2018 Nov 03      69          22          5
2018 Nov 04      69          20          5
2018 Nov 05      70          15          4
2018 Nov 06      70          15          4
2018 Nov 07      72           8          3
2018 Nov 08      72           5          2
2018 Nov 09      72          12          3
2018 Nov 10      72           8          3
(NOAA)

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