Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts:Issued: 2008 Feb 19 2153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 February 2008
Solar activity was very low with no flares were detected. The disk was spotless throughout the summary period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire summary period.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels at middle latitudes during 11 - 15 February. During the same period, high latitudes observed mostly unsettled to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods. This activity was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective on 10 February. By midday on 15 February, activity decreased to mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes, and quiet to active levels at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements (764 km/s at 11/1029 UTC) and density (4.3 p/cc at 11/0159 UTC) both peaked early in the period. Significant changes in the IMF were also observed early in
the period including increased Bt (peak 7 nT at 11/0156 UTC) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -5 nT at 11/0306 UTC). The high-speed stream began decaying early on 16 February and ended the summary period with velocities near 470 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 February - 17 March 2008
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels 20 - 27 February, 29 February - 07 March, and 09 - 17 March.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during 20 - 27 February. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 28 February - 02 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during 03 - 07 March as the high-speed stream subsides. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 08 - 13 March with minor to major storm periods possible at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 14 - 17 March as the high-speed stream subsides.
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 - 17 February 2008
Solar activity was very low with no flares were detected. The disk was spotless throughout the summary period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the entire summary period.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels at middle latitudes during 11 - 15 February. During the same period, high latitudes observed mostly unsettled to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods. This activity was due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream that became geoeffective on 10 February. By midday on 15 February, activity decreased to mostly quiet levels at middle latitudes, and quiet to active levels at high latitudes. ACE solar wind measurements (764 km/s at 11/1029 UTC) and density (4.3 p/cc at 11/0159 UTC) both peaked early in the period. Significant changes in the IMF were also observed early in
the period including increased Bt (peak 7 nT at 11/0156 UTC) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -5 nT at 11/0306 UTC). The high-speed stream began decaying early on 16 February and ended the summary period with velocities near 470 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 February - 17 March 2008
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels 20 - 27 February, 29 February - 07 March, and 09 - 17 March.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during 20 - 27 February. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 28 February - 02 March due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected during 03 - 07 March as the high-speed stream subsides. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 08 - 13 March with minor to major storm periods possible at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during 14 - 17 March as the high-speed stream subsides.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2008 Feb 19 2153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Feb 19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Feb 20 72 8 3
2008 Feb 21 72 12 3
2008 Feb 22 72 5 2
2008 Feb 23 72 5 2
2008 Feb 24 72 5 2
2008 Feb 25 72 5 2
2008 Feb 26 72 5 2
2008 Feb 27 72 5 2
2008 Feb 28 72 15 4
2008 Feb 29 72 15 4
2008 Mar 01 72 12 3
2008 Mar 02 72 10 3
2008 Mar 03 72 8 3
2008 Mar 04 72 5 2
2008 Mar 05 72 5 2
2008 Mar 06 72 8 3
2008 Mar 07 72 8 3
2008 Mar 08 72 15 4
2008 Mar 09 72 15 4
2008 Mar 10 72 10 3
2008 Mar 11 72 12 3
2008 Mar 12 72 15 4
2008 Mar 13 72 10 3
2008 Mar 14 72 5 2
2008 Mar 15 72 5 2
2008 Mar 16 72 10 3
2008 Mar 17 72 10 3
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2008 Feb 19 2153 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2008 Feb 19
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2008 Feb 20 72 8 3
2008 Feb 21 72 12 3
2008 Feb 22 72 5 2
2008 Feb 23 72 5 2
2008 Feb 24 72 5 2
2008 Feb 25 72 5 2
2008 Feb 26 72 5 2
2008 Feb 27 72 5 2
2008 Feb 28 72 15 4
2008 Feb 29 72 15 4
2008 Mar 01 72 12 3
2008 Mar 02 72 10 3
2008 Mar 03 72 8 3
2008 Mar 04 72 5 2
2008 Mar 05 72 5 2
2008 Mar 06 72 8 3
2008 Mar 07 72 8 3
2008 Mar 08 72 15 4
2008 Mar 09 72 15 4
2008 Mar 10 72 10 3
2008 Mar 11 72 12 3
2008 Mar 12 72 15 4
2008 Mar 13 72 10 3
2008 Mar 14 72 5 2
2008 Mar 15 72 5 2
2008 Mar 16 72 10 3
2008 Mar 17 72 10 3
(NOAA)
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next month or so. Scientists are anxiously awaiting for yet another sunspot that can be attributed to the new solar cycle, something that will really confirm that the new cycle has really started. Solar flux should remain between 70 and 75 units for the next three to five days, and this will mean that the maximum daytime useable frequency for the best propagation paths would briefly exceed the 21 to 23 megaHertz range, with the frequency of optimum traffic curve hövering around eighteen megahertz during your local daytime hours, something that will explain the good reception achieved on the 16 meters international shortwave broadcast band.
For amateur radio operators that come in from work after five or six PM local time the 20 meters band will be closing very shortly after you arrive at your home QTH, leaving those of you that are good CW operators with the nice option of operating on the 30 meters or ten point one megahertz amateur band. The rest of the evening your two choices will be 40 meters and 80 meters, with 40 meters much more attractive for DXing with low powers and not too efficient antennas.
Do keep in mind that digital modes, especially the popular PSK31 are much more effective to communicate when poor propagation conditions due to very low solar activity prevail, something that is exactly what is happening now
(Arnie Coro, CO2KK 19 Feb. 08)
