Monday, March 11, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins



Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Mar 11 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 - 10 March 2019

Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2734 (N09, Lo=60,  class/area Cao/20 on 07 Mar) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1 at 08/0319 UTC followed by a secondary X-ray enhancement to C1, which peaked shortly after. Two separate CME signatures, a western directed CME first seen in LASCO C2 at 08/0428 UTC and an eastern directed CME first seen in LASCO C2 at 08/0438 UTC, were associated with the C1 flare activity. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in  vailable coronagraph imagery. The region produced two other weaker B class flares during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels throughout the highlight period due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS prior to the period combined with influence from a second negative polarity CH HSS on 06 and 07 Mar.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled conditions. The intermittent condition increases to unsettled periods occurred on 04 Mar, and 06-08 Mar due to slight enhancements in the ar wind environment and CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 11 March - 06 April 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to very high levels. Very high levels are expected on 29/30 Mar; high levels are expected on 11 Mar, 14-19 Mar, 27-28 Mar, and 31 Mar - 06 Apr; moderate levels are expected on 12/13 Mar and 20-22 March; mostly normal levels are expected 23-25  Mar. All elevated levels of electron flux are anticipated due to influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels. G1 conditions are expected 11 Mar due to possible glancing blows from the 8 Mar CMEs. The active conditions are expected 12 Mar - 15 Mar due to waning CME activity followed by HSS effects from a negative polarity CH. Unsettled to quiet conditions are expected 16-17 Mar as CH effects wane.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Mar 11 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-03-11
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Mar 11      71          30          5
2019 Mar 12      71          18          4
2019 Mar 13      70          18          4
2019 Mar 14      69          15          4
2019 Mar 15      69          12          4
2019 Mar 16      69           8          3
2019 Mar 17      69           5          2
2019 Mar 18      69           5          2
2019 Mar 19      69           5          2
2019 Mar 20      69          10          3
2019 Mar 21      69           5          2
2019 Mar 22      69           5          2
2019 Mar 23      69           5          2
2019 Mar 24      69           5          2
2019 Mar 25      69           5          2
2019 Mar 26      69          12          4
2019 Mar 27      69          30          5
2019 Mar 28      69          28          5
2019 Mar 29      70          14          4
2019 Mar 30      71           8          3
2019 Mar 31      71           5          2
2019 Apr 01      71           5          2
2019 Apr 02      71           8          3
2019 Apr 03      71           8          3
2019 Apr 04      71           5          2
2019 Apr 05      71           5          2
2019 Apr 06      71           5          2
(NOAA)