Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 02 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 September - 01 October 2017
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2683 (N14, L=119, class/area Hkx/280 on 28 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1 at 26/0234 UTC. All active regions on the disk remained
relatively quiet, simple and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the reporting period.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged from normal background to very high levels. Normal background levels
on 25 Sep increased to moderate levels on 26-27 Sep. A further increase to high levels on 28-29 Sep and 01 Oct, with a peak of very high levels on 30 Sep, was observed in response to activity
generated by a positive polarity CH HSS. A maximum flux of 52,054 pfu was observed at 30/1635 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm levels in response to a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions on 25 Sep and quiet conditions at 26 Sep gave way to G2 (Moderate) storm levels on 27 Sep due to the onset of the CH HSS. Conditions increased to active to G3 (Strong) levels on 28 Sep as wind speed continued to increase, reaching a peak of just above 700 km/s. Geomagnetic activity quickly decreased as wind speeds gradually waned over the next several days. Quiet to active activity was observed on 30 Sep and quiet to unsettled was observed on 29 Sep and 01 Oct. The period ended with solar wind speeds near 450 km/s.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 October - 28 October 2017
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class activity throughout the forecast period. No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 02-05 Oct, 07-09 Oct, 12-21 Oct and 01 Nov; very high levels are expected on 27 Oct. Elevated flux levels are expected in anticipation of influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on 02 Oct, 06 Oct, 08 Oct, 16-17 Oct and 28 Oct; active levels are expected on 07 Oct, 15 Oct and 26-27 Oct; G1 (Minor) storm levels
are expected on 11-14 Oct; G2 (Moderate) storm levels are expected on 24 Oct and G3 (Strong) storm levels are expected on 25 Oct. All increased activity is expected in response to multiple, recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected over the remainder of the outlook period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2017 Oct 02 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2017-10-02
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2017 Oct 02 86 8 3
2017 Oct 03 86 5 2
2017 Oct 04 84 5 2
2017 Oct 05 86 5 2
2017 Oct 06 86 8 3
2017 Oct 07 84 12 4
2017 Oct 08 81 8 3
2017 Oct 09 75 5 2
2017 Oct 10 72 5 2
2017 Oct 11 72 25 5
2017 Oct 12 72 25 5
2017 Oct 13 72 25 5
2017 Oct 14 72 20 5
2017 Oct 15 72 15 4
2017 Oct 16 74 8 3
2017 Oct 17 74 8 3
2017 Oct 18 74 5 2
2017 Oct 19 78 5 2
2017 Oct 20 80 5 2
2017 Oct 21 85 5 2
2017 Oct 22 85 5 2
2017 Oct 23 85 5 2
2017 Oct 24 85 35 6
2017 Oct 25 85 52 7
2017 Oct 26 85 15 4
2017 Oct 27 85 15 4
2017 Oct 28 85 10 3
(NOAA)
