:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Aug 12 0219 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 August 2024
Solar activity was ranged from moderate to high levels. 34 events, which ranged from R1-R3 (Minor-Strong), were observed during the week. Region 3767 (S10, L=318, class/area=Dso/beta on 27 Jul) produced the strongest flare of the period, an X1.7/Sf at 05/1340 UTC. Two other regions produced X-class activity with an X1.1/2b at 05/1527 UTC from Region 3780 (S12, L=173, class/area=Fkc/1280 on 09 Aug) and an X1.3/2b flare at 08/1935 UTC from Region 3777 (S09, L=209, class/area=Ekc/460 on 09 Aug).
CME activity observed over 07-08 Aug from multiple sources were analyzed and considered likely to be Earth-directed with a transit time of 3-4 days. An additional CME associated with an M5 (R2-Moderate) flare at 10/0237 UTC produced a faint halo signature first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 10/0312 UTC. Analysis and modeling suggested arrival on 12 Aug.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux observed at geosynchronous orbit became slightly enhanced over 05-06 Aug, but well below the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold due to energetic activity on the Sun's farside.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal background levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels. G1 conditions were observed on 11 Aug, likely due to the influence of passing CMEs that left the Sun over 07-08 Aug. Total magnetic field strength increased to ~11 nT on 10 Aug and increased to a peak of 21 nT on 11 Aug. Solar wind speeds steadily climbed during that time from ~350 km/s to just over 500 km/s at the end of 11 Aug. The Bz component was primarily oriented neutral or northward which resulted in a limited geomagnetic response. A brief period of -20 nT was observed during the final hour of 11 Aug. The remainder of the summary period was at quiet to unsettled levels.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 August - 07 September 2024
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate (R2-Moderate) conditions, with a chance for R3-Strong events, over 12-18 Aug due to multiple complex regions on the visible disk. R1 (Minor) conditions remain likely on most days through the end of the outlook period due to the anticipated return of multiple complex regions from the Sun's farside.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal background to moderate levels throughout the outlook period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G2 (Moderate) levels on 12 Aug due to the passing of multiple CMEs from 08 Aug and 10 Aug. As CME influence wanes, active conditions over 14 Aug are likely to decrease to unsettled levels over 14-15 Aug. Unsettled conditions are again likely on 22-23 Aug in response to a recurrent CH HSS. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at quiet levels, excluding any CMEs that have yet to erupt with an Earth-directed component.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Aug 12 0220 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-08-12
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Aug 12 280 38 6
2024 Aug 13 270 15 4
2024 Aug 14 270 8 3
2024 Aug 15 270 8 3
2024 Aug 16 260 5 2
2024 Aug 17 260 5 2
2024 Aug 18 260 5 2
2024 Aug 19 250 5 2
2024 Aug 20 240 5 2
2024 Aug 21 230 5 2
2024 Aug 22 210 10 3
2024 Aug 23 200 8 3
2024 Aug 24 210 5 2
2024 Aug 25 220 5 2
2024 Aug 26 220 5 2
2024 Aug 27 235 5 2
2024 Aug 28 235 5 2
2024 Aug 29 245 5 2
2024 Aug 30 245 5 2
2024 Aug 31 240 5 2
2024 Sep 01 245 5 2
2024 Sep 02 270 5 2
2024 Sep 03 300 5 2
2024 Sep 04 300 5 2
2024 Sep 05 300 5 2
2024 Sep 06 290 5 2
2024 Sep 07 290 5 2
(NOAA)
