Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Jan 25 1925 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 - 23 January 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels from 17 - 20 January. Region 1147 (N24, L=342, class/area Cso/170 on 20 January) was responsible for the majority of the activity during this period producing numerous B-class events. Region 1149 (N18, L=344, class/area Dsi/170 on 22 January) emerged late on 20 January and immediately started producing B-class events. Activity increased to low levels during 20 - 22 January as Region 1149 grew into a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Eight C-class flares were observed during this period with a majority coming from Region 1149. Region 1149 also produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3/Sf at 0416 UTC on 21 January. Activity decreased to very low levels on 23 January as both regions became quiet and stable.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from predominantly quiet levels at lower latitudes to a few periods at minor storm levels at high atitudes. Mostly quiet periods predominate from 17 - 18 January. On 19 January, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into a geoeffective position. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an increase in solar wind velocities from around 400km/s - 530km/s with the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field generally varying between +/- 6 nT. Two periods at minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes on 19/0900-1500 UTC in response to the CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels were observed for the rest of the summary period as the effects of the CH
HSS waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 January - 21 February 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during 26 - 30 January. Very low levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels during 26 January - 04 February. Moderate to high levels are expected from 04 - 09 February. A return to normal to moderate levels is expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels from 26 January - 02 February. Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 02 - 05 February due to a recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels is expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 25 1925 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-01-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jan 26 82 5 2
2011 Jan 27 82 5 2
2011 Jan 28 80 5 2
2011 Jan 29 78 5 2
2011 Jan 30 78 5 2
2011 Jan 31 78 5 2
2011 Feb 01 78 5 2
2011 Feb 02 78 7 2
2011 Feb 03 78 10 3
2011 Feb 04 80 10 3
2011 Feb 05 80 7 2
2011 Feb 06 82 5 2
2011 Feb 07 82 5 2
2011 Feb 08 82 5 2
2011 Feb 09 82 7 2
2011 Feb 10 82 7 2
2011 Feb 11 82 5 2
2011 Feb 12 82 5 2
2011 Feb 13 82 5 2
2011 Feb 14 82 5 2
2011 Feb 15 82 5 2
2011 Feb 16 82 5 2
2011 Feb 17 82 5 2
2011 Feb 18 82 5 2
2011 Feb 19 82 5 2
2011 Feb 20 82 5 2
2011 Feb 21 82 5 2
(NOAA)
:Issued: 2011 Jan 25 1925 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
17 - 23 January 2011
Solar activity was at very low levels from 17 - 20 January. Region 1147 (N24, L=342, class/area Cso/170 on 20 January) was responsible for the majority of the activity during this period producing numerous B-class events. Region 1149 (N18, L=344, class/area Dsi/170 on 22 January) emerged late on 20 January and immediately started producing B-class events. Activity increased to low levels during 20 - 22 January as Region 1149 grew into a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Eight C-class flares were observed during this period with a majority coming from Region 1149. Region 1149 also produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3/Sf at 0416 UTC on 21 January. Activity decreased to very low levels on 23 January as both regions became quiet and stable.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from predominantly quiet levels at lower latitudes to a few periods at minor storm levels at high atitudes. Mostly quiet periods predominate from 17 - 18 January. On 19 January, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moved into a geoeffective position. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicated an increase in solar wind velocities from around 400km/s - 530km/s with the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field generally varying between +/- 6 nT. Two periods at minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes on 19/0900-1500 UTC in response to the CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels were observed for the rest of the summary period as the effects of the CH
HSS waned.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
26 January - 21 February 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels during 26 - 30 January. Very low levels are expected for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels during 26 January - 04 February. Moderate to high levels are expected from 04 - 09 February. A return to normal to moderate levels is expected for the remainder of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels from 26 January - 02 February. Field activity is expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels during 02 - 05 February due to a recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels is expected to prevail for the remainder of the period.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Jan 25 1925 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-01-25
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Jan 26 82 5 2
2011 Jan 27 82 5 2
2011 Jan 28 80 5 2
2011 Jan 29 78 5 2
2011 Jan 30 78 5 2
2011 Jan 31 78 5 2
2011 Feb 01 78 5 2
2011 Feb 02 78 7 2
2011 Feb 03 78 10 3
2011 Feb 04 80 10 3
2011 Feb 05 80 7 2
2011 Feb 06 82 5 2
2011 Feb 07 82 5 2
2011 Feb 08 82 5 2
2011 Feb 09 82 7 2
2011 Feb 10 82 7 2
2011 Feb 11 82 5 2
2011 Feb 12 82 5 2
2011 Feb 13 82 5 2
2011 Feb 14 82 5 2
2011 Feb 15 82 5 2
2011 Feb 16 82 5 2
2011 Feb 17 82 5 2
2011 Feb 18 82 5 2
2011 Feb 19 82 5 2
2011 Feb 20 82 5 2
2011 Feb 21 82 5 2
(NOAA)
