The daily sunspot number (SSN) has reached 137 and the daily solar flux index (SFI) 166.7, both new record high's for solar cycle 24.
The UTC day ended with five M class solar flares, the largest being an M5.3. All five solar flares resulted in radio black outs on the sun facing side of the earth.
A >(10+0) energetic proton flux storm is still underway and continues to create increased D Layer RF signal absorption on 160 and 80 meters on paths at high latitudes (polar cap absorption) on the day light side of the earth.. You can see it at ttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html .
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@tampabay.rr.com
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Mar 09 0004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 February - 06 March 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the period. Activity was at moderate levels on 28 February. Region 1164 (N24, L=165, class/area Fkc/770 on 05 March) produced an M1.1 flare at 28/1252UTC. Region 1164 also produced a C2.4/Sf flare with an
associated Type II sweep, with an estimated shock velocity of 1038 km/s. Activity decreased to low levels for the rest of the period. Several C-class flares occurred; the most significant of these was a C5.4/1N at 03/1419 UTC from Region 1164.
No protons were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels during 28 February - 01 March. High levels occurred during 02- 06 March.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the period. Activity was at quiet levels on 28 February. Activity increased to quiet to active levels, with isolated minor to severe levels on 01 March. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active to major storm levels on 05 March. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels to major storm levels at high latitudes on 04 March. The elevated activity was due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and a following coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt reached 17 nT at 01/0645 UTC, while the southward IMF Bz reached a maximum deflection of -15 nT at
01/0645 UTC, and wind velocities reached 703 km/s at 02/0314 UTC. Activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels during 05 - 06 March.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 March - 04 April 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels on 09 March as Regions 1164 and 1165 (S20, L=184, class/area Fko/420 on 09 March) rotate around the west limb. Very low to low levels are expected, with a chance for M-class events during 10 - 22 March. Activity is expected to increase to low to moderate levels during 22 March - 04 April, as old Region 1165 returns.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 09 - 10 March. Normal to moderate levels are expected are during 11 - 18 March. High levels are expected to return on 19 - 21 March. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 22 March to 28 March. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the rest of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes from 09 March to early on 11 March. The increase in activity is expected due to an Earth-directed CME observed on 07 March. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from late on 11 March through 27 March. Quiet to active levels, with isolated minor to major storm levels are expected on 29 March. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes are expected during 30 - 31 March. The increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels are expected during 01 - 04 April.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 09 0004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-03-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Mar 09 150 25 5
2011 Mar 10 150 22 5
2011 Mar 11 145 12 3
2011 Mar 12 140 5 2
2011 Mar 13 135 5 2
2011 Mar 14 135 5 2
2011 Mar 15 130 5 2
2011 Mar 16 120 5 2
2011 Mar 17 110 5 2
2011 Mar 18 110 5 2
2011 Mar 19 105 5 2
2011 Mar 20 100 5 2
2011 Mar 21 110 5 2
2011 Mar 22 120 5 2
2011 Mar 23 120 5 2
2011 Mar 24 130 5 2
2011 Mar 25 135 5 2
2011 Mar 26 140 5 2
2011 Mar 27 145 5 2
2011 Mar 28 150 7 2
2011 Mar 29 150 19 4
2011 Mar 30 145 7 2
2011 Mar 31 140 5 2
2011 Apr 01 135 5 2
2011 Apr 02 130 5 2
2011 Apr 03 120 5 2
2011 Apr 04 110 5 2
(NOAA)
The UTC day ended with five M class solar flares, the largest being an M5.3. All five solar flares resulted in radio black outs on the sun facing side of the earth.
A >(10+0) energetic proton flux storm is still underway and continues to create increased D Layer RF signal absorption on 160 and 80 meters on paths at high latitudes (polar cap absorption) on the day light side of the earth.. You can see it at ttp://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/index.html .
73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@tampabay.rr.com
Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Mar 09 0004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 February - 06 March 2011
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels during the period. Activity was at moderate levels on 28 February. Region 1164 (N24, L=165, class/area Fkc/770 on 05 March) produced an M1.1 flare at 28/1252UTC. Region 1164 also produced a C2.4/Sf flare with an
associated Type II sweep, with an estimated shock velocity of 1038 km/s. Activity decreased to low levels for the rest of the period. Several C-class flares occurred; the most significant of these was a C5.4/1N at 03/1419 UTC from Region 1164.
No protons were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels during 28 February - 01 March. High levels occurred during 02- 06 March.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to severe storm levels during the period. Activity was at quiet levels on 28 February. Activity increased to quiet to active levels, with isolated minor to severe levels on 01 March. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active to major storm levels on 05 March. Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels to major storm levels at high latitudes on 04 March. The elevated activity was due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and a following coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt reached 17 nT at 01/0645 UTC, while the southward IMF Bz reached a maximum deflection of -15 nT at
01/0645 UTC, and wind velocities reached 703 km/s at 02/0314 UTC. Activity decreased to predominantly quiet levels during 05 - 06 March.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 March - 04 April 2011
Solar activity is expected to be at high levels on 09 March as Regions 1164 and 1165 (S20, L=184, class/area Fko/420 on 09 March) rotate around the west limb. Very low to low levels are expected, with a chance for M-class events during 10 - 22 March. Activity is expected to increase to low to moderate levels during 22 March - 04 April, as old Region 1165 returns.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels on 09 - 10 March. Normal to moderate levels are expected are during 11 - 18 March. High levels are expected to return on 19 - 21 March. Normal to moderate levels are expected from 22 March to 28 March. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the rest of the period.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated minor storm levels at high latitudes from 09 March to early on 11 March. The increase in activity is expected due to an Earth-directed CME observed on 07 March. Predominantly quiet levels are expected from late on 11 March through 27 March. Quiet to active levels, with isolated minor to major storm levels are expected on 29 March. Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated minor
storm levels at high latitudes are expected during 30 - 31 March. The increase in activity is expected due to a recurrent CH HSS. Predominantly quiet levels are expected during 01 - 04 April.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2011 Mar 09 0004 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2011-03-08
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2011 Mar 09 150 25 5
2011 Mar 10 150 22 5
2011 Mar 11 145 12 3
2011 Mar 12 140 5 2
2011 Mar 13 135 5 2
2011 Mar 14 135 5 2
2011 Mar 15 130 5 2
2011 Mar 16 120 5 2
2011 Mar 17 110 5 2
2011 Mar 18 110 5 2
2011 Mar 19 105 5 2
2011 Mar 20 100 5 2
2011 Mar 21 110 5 2
2011 Mar 22 120 5 2
2011 Mar 23 120 5 2
2011 Mar 24 130 5 2
2011 Mar 25 135 5 2
2011 Mar 26 140 5 2
2011 Mar 27 145 5 2
2011 Mar 28 150 7 2
2011 Mar 29 150 19 4
2011 Mar 30 145 7 2
2011 Mar 31 140 5 2
2011 Apr 01 135 5 2
2011 Apr 02 130 5 2
2011 Apr 03 120 5 2
2011 Apr 04 110 5 2
(NOAA)
