Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 22-Dec 24 2014
Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24
00-03UT 5 (G1) 3 3
03-06UT 5 (G1) 2 2
06-09UT 4 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 3 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms periods are expected on 22 Dec due to effects from the 18 Dec coronal mass ejection (CME).
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014
Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24
S1 or greater 30% 30% 25%
Rationale: A chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms exists due to flare potential from Regions 2241 (S10W39) and 2242 (S18W63).
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 22 2014 0149 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014
Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec 24
R1-R2 85% 85% 75%
R3 or greater 40% 40% 25%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected with a
chance for R3 (Strong) activity due to flare potential from Regions 2241
(S10W39) and 2242 (S18W63).
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 0358 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2014-12-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2014 Dec 22 205 22 5
2014 Dec 23 200 8 3
2014 Dec 24 185 8 3
2014 Dec 25 175 5 2
2014 Dec 26 170 5 2
2014 Dec 27 175 8 3
2014 Dec 28 175 10 3
2014 Dec 29 175 8 3
2014 Dec 30 160 8 3
2014 Dec 31 160 10 3
2015 Jan 01 150 10 3
2015 Jan 02 140 12 4
2015 Jan 03 140 25 5
2015 Jan 04 145 15 4
2015 Jan 05 150 10 3
2015 Jan 06 155 8 3
2015 Jan 07 165 8 3
2015 Jan 08 170 10 4
2015 Jan 09 175 10 4
2015 Jan 10 180 8 3
2015 Jan 11 185 8 3
2015 Jan 12 185 5 2
(NOAA)
