Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jan 05 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 05-Jan 07 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 05-Jan 07 2015
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07
00-03UT 5 (G1) 4 3
03-06UT 3 3 2
06-09UT 3 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 3 2 2
15-18UT 3 2 2
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 4 3 2
Rationale: There is a slight chance for G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms on days one and two Jan 05-06 in response to a high speed solar wind stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2015
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07
S1 or greater 5% 10% 10%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 04 2015 1536 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2015
Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a continued chance for R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts from Region 2253 from Jan 05 to Jan 07.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2015 Jan 05 0314 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2015-01-05
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2015 Jan 05 150 18 5
2015 Jan 06 155 12 3
2015 Jan 07 160 8 3
2015 Jan 08 160 18 4
2015 Jan 09 165 10 3
2015 Jan 10 165 10 3
2015 Jan 11 170 10 3
2015 Jan 12 175 5 2
2015 Jan 13 175 5 2
2015 Jan 14 175 5 2
2015 Jan 15 175 5 2
2015 Jan 16 170 5 2
2015 Jan 17 165 5 2
2015 Jan 18 160 5 2
2015 Jan 19 155 5 2
2015 Jan 20 145 5 2
2015 Jan 21 140 10 3
2015 Jan 22 135 15 3
2015 Jan 23 130 5 2
2015 Jan 24 130 10 3
2015 Jan 25 130 18 4
2015 Jan 26 130 15 3
2015 Jan 27 130 8 3
2015 Jan 28 135 5 2
2015 Jan 29 140 10 3
2015 Jan 30 140 12 3
2015 Jan 31 145 15 3
(NOAA)
