Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 - 18 December 2022
Solar activity reached high levels on 14-16 Dec, and low levels were observed on 12-13 and 18 Dec. Region 3165 (S19, L=279, class/area=Ekc/340 on 15 Dec) produced the bulk of this period's M-flare activity. In total 29 M-class flares were observed during this period, of which two exceeded R2 (Moderate) levels (an M6/2b flare at 14/1442 UTC and an M5 flare at 15/2240 UTC). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during this period.
No proton events were observed in geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled on 12-13 Dec, and quiet on 14-18 Dec. K-index calculations were unavailable due to an outage on 16-17 Dec.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 19 December - 14 January 2023
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events and a slight chance for R3 or greater events throughout the forecast period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 22-24 Dec, and 26 Dec-02 Jan. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 19-21, 25 Dec, and 03-14 Jan.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 21, 25-28 Dec, and 03 Jan due to CH HSS influences. Active levels are likely on 19-20, 22, 29, 31 Dec. Quiet and quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of
the forecast period.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2022 Dec 19 0152 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center