Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 01 0215 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 - 31 December 2023
Solar activity was at low levels on 25-30 Dec with numerous C-class flares from Regions 3528 (N08, L=027, class/area Dai/200 on 23 Dec), 3529 (S19, L=345, class/area Dko/450 on 20 Dec), 3530 (N08, L=323, class/area Dao/180 on 20 Dec), 3533 (N14, L=305, class/area Dao/170 on 29 Dec), 3534 (S13, L=225, class/area Dao/150 on 30 Dec) and 3536 (N05, L=152, class/area Hax/080 on 31 Dec). Activity increased to strong levels (R3-strong) when new Region 3536 produced an X5.0 flare at 31/2155 UTC. This flare also produced complex radio burst signatures reported across discrete frequencies, including a 10 cm radio Burst of 3,100 sfu at 31/2143 UTC and a Type IV Sweep signature at 31/2142 UTC. In addition to the X-flare, Region 3536 produced an M1.0 flare at 31/1912 UTC.
Numerous CME signatures, mostly from the NW and SE limbs, were detected during the period, but none were determined to have an Earth-directed component.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at slightly elevated levels to 2 pfu after 31/2310 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels the entire period. Total field strength ranged between 4-12 nT and Bz varied between +/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked at nearly 500 km/s early on 27 Dec and declined to about 290 km/s early on 31 Dec. The phi angle was mostly in a positive orientation from 25 Dec to midday on 29 Dec. Orientation switched to a more negative angle from midday on 29 Dec through 31 Dec.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 01 January - 27 January 2024
Solar activity is expected to be low with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a chance for X-class (R3/Strong) flares, over 01-14 Jan, particularly from new Region 3536. From 15-27 Jan, solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a chance for moderate levels (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate).
There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed the 10 pfu event threshold on 01 Jan, and a slight chance to reach 10 pfu on 02-15 Jan. No proton events are expected from 16-27 Jan.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 03-06 and 09-12 Jan due to multiple, anticipated CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be at moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active conditions on 01-02 Jan, with quiet to unsettled levels expected on 03-04, 08-10, and 27 Jan, due to CH HSSs. The remainder of the outlook period is likely to be mostly quiet.
Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 01 0216 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
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# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-01-01
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jan 01 145 15 4
2024 Jan 02 140 12 4
2024 Jan 03 140 8 3
2024 Jan 04 145 8 3
2024 Jan 05 145 5 2
2024 Jan 06 150 5 2
2024 Jan 07 150 5 2
2024 Jan 08 150 10 3
2024 Jan 09 155 10 3
2024 Jan 10 155 8 3
2024 Jan 11 160 5 2
2024 Jan 12 155 5 2
2024 Jan 13 155 5 2
2024 Jan 14 155 5 2
2024 Jan 15 160 5 2
2024 Jan 16 165 5 2
2024 Jan 17 160 5 2
2024 Jan 18 155 5 2
2024 Jan 19 150 5 2
2024 Jan 20 150 5 2
2024 Jan 21 150 5 2
2024 Jan 22 145 5 2
2024 Jan 23 140 5 2
2024 Jan 24 135 5 2
2024 Jan 25 135 5 2
2024 Jan 26 135 5 2
2024 Jan 27 130 8 3
(NOAA)
