Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2024 Jan 22 0515 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 15 - 21 January 2024
Solar activity was at low levels throughout. The largest flare was a C6.7 at 21/1935 UTC from Region 3561. Moderate development occurred in Region 3561 beginning on 21 Jan, however the spot group maintains a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 3559 (N27, L=289, class/area Fkc/300 on 21 Jan) exhibited rapid growth and development since 20 Jan and is now classified as an Fkc spot group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics.
Other activity included several filament eruptions. The first was a complex filament eruption centered near S15E22 that began around 20/0848 UTC. The subsequent CMEs were first visible at 20/0912 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. The CME appeared to have three fronts; to the east, southeast, and south-southwest. Modeling indicated a CME passage reaching Earth mid to late on 22 Jan. Two other filament eruptions occurred with a potential for a glancing blow. The first occurred at 21/0000 UTC centered near N23E40. An associated CME was observed off the ENE limb at 21/0024 UTC. The second was a CME off the SE limb at 21/1636 UTC, possibly associated with a filament eruption near S30E50. Initial modelling indicated the potential for a glancing blow early on 24 Jan, however analysis is still in progress.
No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed and temperature values were not accurate through late on 16 Jan due to known instrument limitations during low densities. Estimates of solar wind speed were likely in the upper
400 km/s range. Solar wind speed declined to nominal levels on 17 Jan followed by a brief increase to 490 km/s on 19 Jan. Total field ranged from 2 nT to 9 nT. Isolated unsettled periods were observed on 16, 19, and 21 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 22 January - 17 February 2024
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels on 22-29 Jan due primarily to the flare potential of Region 3559. Low levels with a chance for M-class flares is expected on 30 Jan-10 Feb. An increased chance for moderate levels is possible once again on 11-17 Feb as Region 3559 rotates back onto the visible disk.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit. A minor enhancement below S1 (Minor) threshold is in progress and likely to continue until the arrival of the 20 Jan CME.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 24-27 Jan due to CME influence.
Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels on 22-23 Jan due to the arrival of the 20 Jan CME. Unsettled to active conditions are likely on 24 Jan with the potential glancing blow from the 21 Jan CMEs. Unsettled levels are expected on 29-31 Jan and again on 17 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2024 Jan 22 0515 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2024-01-22
#
# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2024 Jan 22 175 30 6
2024 Jan 23 175 35 6
2024 Jan 24 170 10 3
2024 Jan 25 175 5 2
2024 Jan 26 170 5 2
2024 Jan 27 165 5 2
2024 Jan 28 160 8 3
2024 Jan 29 155 12 3
2024 Jan 30 160 8 3
2024 Jan 31 165 5 2
2024 Feb 01 170 5 2
2024 Feb 02 170 5 2
2024 Feb 03 175 5 2
2024 Feb 04 175 5 2
2024 Feb 05 180 5 2
2024 Feb 06 180 5 2
2024 Feb 07 180 5 2
2024 Feb 08 180 5 2
2024 Feb 09 190 5 2
2024 Feb 10 190 5 2
2024 Feb 11 195 5 2
2024 Feb 12 190 5 2
2024 Feb 13 185 5 2
2024 Feb 14 180 5 2
2024 Feb 15 180 5 2
2024 Feb 16 175 5 2
2024 Feb 17 170 8 3
(NOAA)
